Rain gauge didn’t even have 3/4 of an inch in it, so we can talk about temps and ratios and stickage, if even if all those things were good, the moisture just wasn’t there. Basically half what the GFS advertised.
It feels like the Euro and CMC were most right with the area of heaviest snow, but they were just too light on the totals within that area. Those models had the coastal Niña blizzard look. The GFS was first to lock onto the blizzard idea and had the right totals along the coast but was too bullish too far inland.
Not that it really matters because this storm sucks for us either way given what is happening just northeast of us, but we are stuck between the band on the eastern shore and the IVT west of DC, so rates are pretty are pretty meh.
Look at what is happening on radar out near Hagerstown. It’s not about the low cranking. It’s the positioning of it and the flow of moisture. It’s still moving toward places like Philly. Even if you look at that nice band on the bay, it’s basically stopped any westward movement, and is probably going to stall for a bit and then start pushing east.
Looks about the same despite lows closer to coast. Interesting. Kinda goes to the other poster’s point that none of the shifts really seem to be making significant changes happen at the surface.
This is definitely something I’ve been watching for our big total hopes. You need to rain on a decent portion of the eastern shore for at least part of the storm.