osfan24

Dry slot just won't fill in. Probably going to be an hour later on the onset of snow than it should have been. Can't afford to punt an hour of snow when it's only going to snow for 3-4 hours. Guessing I end up with a dusting to an inch. Nice band out by Frederick and Leesburg.

It better snow like crazy once the dryslot gets out of here or this is going to bust low. I think the Euro may have been right.

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.

Yeah, if the models were flipped and they were trash and Euro was good, we would be hugging the hell out of the Euro. It's been a rough winter and looks kinda bleak now the rest of the way. The mesos for this one are the only thing we have. I am fully prepared to be heartbroken.

Isn't that just rates? Euro just seems drier overall. I think the question is whether you buy the mesos with the intense dump or is that being overplayed and the Euro is correct with less intense rates? Or maybe something in the middle, which seems like the GFS.

Even Brooklyn has vanished.

Seems so close to a big thump for Baltimore metro area. DC has a bit more work to do but not too far out of it either. Feels like we need two more significant bumps south. Think we might just run out of time.

Commutageddon vibes.

Well, at least it is the GFS and an Op run. Woof.

I mean, it's not a high probability, but models are still hinting at Tuesday. It's at least trackable for another few runs or so. Things should start to show up on the long range in the next few days I would think.

Probably not given the pattern, but we can absolutely get cold smoke this late in the season. Seen a lot of cold smoke snows in March of late.

Also liked how the map showed several major snowstorms and then his actual tweet said at least one major lol. Soooo, which is it?

Beautiful.

I was a swimmer and a runner growing up. I found that swimming got me in the best shape. I could be swimming regularly and not run at all and then go for a long run without any problems. Flip that around and that was not the case at all. Swimming is a rather lonely existence, however. At least with running, your head is above water and you are outside. You can talk to people if you have a running friend and look around. With swimming, you get none of that. It's a good sport but I kinda wish I had switched to another sport sooner than I did. Cycling/spinning is hard but it doesn't get me in the shape that running or swimming does. I find those to be much more of a full-body workout than cycling. I love a good run when snow is falling.

Yeah, essentially making the Euro control the new Op is, uhhhh, not great.

Yeah, and that storm was so close to being even better. Just slightly too warm at the start. Places northeast of us did much better.

My post was really a response to you questioning that those expecting a big, snowy winter this year don't know where they live. I know where I live, and I understand ENSO and what I should expect given whatever state it is for that winter. What we get on average in a typical winter is really meaningless as ENSO state plays such a massive role in what we actually get in specific winters, which was basically my point all along. I probably average 20-22 inches of snow a year. I don't expect that next year. I expect far less. I don't expect that this year. I expect far more. I expect those things because I know what each winter should deliver. Doesn't mean it will, but it is critical for us to hit big in this ENSO state. Otherwise, average snowfall will crater unless somehow the bad years magically start producing much bigger snows. My point was that, and it's not just you, and I guess I am kinda just repeating PSU here, but I keep seeing all of these posts acting like nickel and diming our way to climo this winter is good. And it's just not. I'm not saying you can't enjoy it or have whatever expectations you want. That's up to you. I was hoping to see it snow harder at points last week, but overall, it was a great week. Two events, both kinda surprises to some degree, and cold temps that kept the snowpack for 9-10 days. Loved it. But factually, BWI getting 4 snow events this winter and fighting its way to near 20 inches is just not good when factoring in ENSO state.

Seems like the same issue we've had outside of basically the last week. It's just not cold enough.

Give it a rest? Says the guy who made numerous posts about it over the past 3 pages of the thread. I made an original post, and then just responded again. But yes, I’ll give it a rest. Your point was a repeat of what we already had would be a typical snowfall for the season. My point was that’s not the case for a Nino and nuance matters.

I had a point. You just disagreed with it. I don’t recall attacking anyone, either. I just said people who think climo in a Nino is good are crazy. Your constant posts about my one post have been far more egregious than anything I said, not that I take offense, but it’s comical. Your post literally said we just came off a great week (true) and that if we could repeat it again, it would be a typical season at this latitude. That’s just not true for a Nino . We’ve had about 10 inches of snow. BWI is at 9.2 I believe. If you double that, it is literally climo. It’s not terrible in a Nina. In a Nino, that’s not good. That was my only point. And the fact you seem to think it’s good is why I posted.

I am shocked 2014 isn’t on this list. I know it’s for DC, but 2014 to me was just an incredible winter between the constant light to moderate snowstorms and incredible cold. Even 2015 seems like it could make a run at that list.

Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between. My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte! 2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do.

But it’s not average for this type of nino. Some of you are crazy. The average winter is literally the average of the few really good winters that are Nino’s where we crush it and a lot of crappy other seasons that are Nina or neutral. Hitting climo in a nino is a failure. You suffer through the last seven years for this year.

HECS or bust.