osfan24

Alright, let's find a way to slow this thing down and stall it and bomb right over us to get a KU.

Hate the carpenter bees. We moved into our new house a few years ago and they had put so many holes in our wood fence. I've spend the past couple of years trying to eradicate them and fill in the holes. People that lived here before us did like zero maintenance on anything.

Oh yeah, I am not worried about that run. It was a perfectly fine run that keeps everyone right in the game. I do agree it looks like a pretty classic Mid-Atlantic MECS to HECS storm track. Just needed to gain a bit more lattitude. One thing I'd like to see to pump up the totals more into HECS range is some WAA snow running through the region before we get into the CCB.

Was not saying this is the final solution but that is definitely suppressed. I don't even think the heavy snow bands reach 95 unless the GFS is just not correctly showing how expansive precip would be on the northwest side.

Looks suppressed to me.

I am greedy. Let's start bumping those totals up a little.

Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly.

It is depressing looking at this. So close, yet so far.

I don't get the GEFS love. It spent all of last winter following the op. Seems like it will do the same this winter.

Yeah, low is already way too far northwest.

I don't know if it is the metro or what. Obviously, it's probably even worse now than when I went there since the school and especially surrounding area has become far more built up than it was in the early and mid 2000's. But you would think with some of the green space there that it would help mitigate some of it.

That makes more sense for Feb 2006. College Park clearly in the 8-12 and I am guessing it was much closer to 8 and possibly even a localized amount under 8. I am not sure why, but College Park always seemed to run warmer than surrounding areas. Do remember the February 2003 crushjob very well. That one hit us good down there, though again, not as hard as I got hit at home.

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

I remember that well. The ensembles were worthless last year and oddly followed the op. Hopefully, that's not the case this year. Definitely some big hit potential with this one but could be heartbreak as well.

Oh baby. So close to something even bigger.

Interesting that the January 10 system tries for a little front-end something. Doesn't happen but I just kinda wrote everything off after January 6/7. Maybe that will bear watching at some point.

985 off of OC and hardly snowing, lol. Another way to fail I guess. At least it is a step in the right direction.

I think his point, and one I share, is that when we finally get a Nino where things look like they should be lined up for a big season, you have to get that big season. We are coming out of an awful period for snow. I know where I live, I don't expect 96/03/09-10/14 every year. I get it. Those years are few and far between. But especially when our snow in general seems to be really decreasing in the crappy seasons, we have to hit big on the good seasons. To nickel and dime my way to 12-15 inches this year would be dreadful.

Sure, it's better and certainly worth monitoring. This was always the time period/storm I thought had the best chance to produce before the mid-January relax period.

Too warm and the system goes from a slug of moisture to much weaker by the time it gets up here.

Even if he was right, which he probably wasn't, those of us looking for snow and big snow at that do not want severe cold. Congrats Atlanta!

My post was not to say the winter is a bust. We could most certainly shuffle the deck in mid-January and then go on a run in our true prime climo. I was only talking about this upcoming window from early to mid January.

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast. I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

The pattern is changing. How much remains to be seen, and whether we will cash in or not. But get out of here with that 12/28 talk. No one that seriously tracks this stuff thought that was anything to be tracking. We cash in during the middle, and probably mostly, toward the end of pattern changes. 1/6 and on is really the timeframe I am concerned with. Anything before then was a big surprise/added bonus and I wouldn't have even taken seriously until the short-to-medium range.

Agreed. I always thought everything before this date was too fast/early in the pattern change. But if nothing comes of the January 5-12 timeframe.......