osfan24

The main event is turning into either wind gusts or the chance at a car topper from the backlash snows showers.

Same. I'm not as excited about the next couple of weeks now as I was previously now that it looks like some major cold is going to push through. Sure, I guess you could get a 2014 and 2015 repeat with lots of waves coming at us and getting direct hits, but it doesn't look like the chance of a big storm is in the cards now like it possibly was several days ago. And add to that the fact this slop storm coming up is quickly going to melt before we get the cold, and I'd rather not have a big outbreak of cold and just take our chances with a less extreme pattern.

The NAM could be right, but I have no idea why any I-81 folks would freak out. The GFS and Euro have showed adjustments here and there almost every run for 48 hours now and the end result is literally the exact same each time. Like Bobchill said, it seems like the tracks are laid down and the storm has nowhere to go but along the tracks.

Maybe ensembles are, but the ops are still going west. At some point, the op needs to match or at least trend toward the ensembles or the ensembles are just plain wrong.

Lol what's causing all the suppression Yeah, that's bizarre. GEFS went east, but there are less hits for us as it seems like most are either now west or south. More of them seem south, at least the big hitters. Doesn't make sense to me given the low positions.

Looks like GFS cut back totals for the metros on that run. Not a surprise given how far west the low went. Frustrating that any positive change is negated by one in the opposite direction. Seems like 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

Why all the monster hits in Southwest VA and NC in the ensembles but none up our way?

Kinda weird how it looks like it's going to hug the coast or at least go over the Delmarva and instead of going north or northeast it actually seems to jump northwest and go over us?

It really won't matter if you dryslot or not with those temperatures. Your snow will be gone almost as soon as it ends.

True. But we do hear you talk about how you are friends with Ava.

Well, that's like 99.999999% of the people. No offense, but no one really cares what it does in Hagerstown. Well, maybe the 5 people that live there do.

Icon looks amazing if you are in Hagerstown area. They are getting crushed. Those to the east are likely getting flurries or snow showers. High ratio stuff for sure, but nothing much going on there.

This is a disaster. We need pretty significant shifts in all the models now for something significant.

That was my takeaway as well. They don't all hit us, but there aren't many panels there without a big hit somewhere.

It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great! You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss.

Agreed. I thought about that as well. The timing of the storm is a day later than it was before, maybe even a little more than that, so it's not getting closer in time and the delay is going to continue to change the players on the field and how they interact.

It will obviously change, but not sure why anyone on here is that happy unless you live in the sticks. It's too GFSish.

As long as they aren't playing catch-up to the ops.

Bold move. We will see if it pays off.

The GOAT. Nothing like hearing his raspy voice on TWC before a big storm.

Way too far west. Over top of us.

Tucked. Looks like 6z. Too far west seems to be maybe a concern but next couple frames should answer that question.

Here she comes?

Yep, and my guess is we are nowhere close to the way this will all evolve and major changes from run to run are still in store. I mean, look at the GFS now basically pushing the system back in time. It used to be a weekend system and now it's mostly a late Sunday/Monday storm now for us.

Baby steps on that run.