osfan24
-
Posts
3,867 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by osfan24
-
I mean, I just don't understand some of the maps out there given this. I think the GFS is generally terrible but I have to admit it has been the clear leader with this storm. I'd hang my hat on a GFS/Euro blend with this one over the other models and take my chances.
-
Hey, we will find out. That's what makes this fun. I just think it completely ignores the GFS, which has been leading the whole way, and the Euro, which are both much farther north. HRRR is still a bit out of range but the 7-10 area looks like it will be better suited for an ark than an igloo, but that's why he's a met and I'm just a weather fan!
-
No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way.
-
Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM.
-
What south trend? There is no south trend. The NAMs went a bit south. No other guidance is doing that. Other guidance continues to shift north. Could it change? Sure. But I'm confused how there is a south trend right now.
-
It appears that way. Very weird.
-
Think you will do quite well. Would be surprised if this doesn't tick slightly farther NW over the next few runs.
-
Appear to be a few KU's in that mix, mostly pretty isolated areas and confined to Southern MD and VA.
-
Would like to see a better tilt on the snowfall output. Little too much east/west for my liking. But that was a really good run obviously. Hopefully, the Euro ups the ante.
-
Yes, though one would think any shifts would start to become smaller from run-to-run. Loved that huge shift on the NAM. Might the GFS score a coup on this one? I'd have to eat some serious crow after I trashed it a couple days ago.
-
I bet the next run of the NAM jumps far NW then as well. Seems like the SREF's always tell you what the next run of the NAM will do.
-
Pretty decent shift on the Euro. I'll take a few more of those through midday tomorrow. Hopefully, it's playing catch-up with the GFS. If nothing else, this looks like either a nice hit or a painful miss here. Seems unlikely it's a complete southern slider now.
-
Yeah I don't see the potential for it to be big. No blocking means it just zips along.
-
Sure looks like it to me! Imagine what a slightly more negative tilt and a little more separation would do? If the GFS is right, we seem like very, very small moves from something quite significant.
-
Running low on time for the kind of shift we need at this point.
-
Just can't get it to climb at all. It's a killer it won't climb and wrap up a little. Just skirts ENE out to sea from OBX.
-
Yeah, my bad. Was looking at 6z. It does look good. Probably a tad better than GFS.
-
Yeah, even the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with it. GFS and RGEM vs Euro, CMC, NAM. Hmmm.
-
RGEM often seems as amped or more amped than the NAM. It's about as useful as the GFS.
-
I agree, and I'd feel really good about where it sits on the GFS if it wasn't for the fact it's on an island by itself in both track and intensity.
-
ICON and GFS vs. Euro and CMC. What could go wrong?
-
Hmmmm wonder which is right? The GFS almost always folds to the Euro, especially when it has the CMC on its side. I don't even care about the GFS or GEFS when it comes to snow anymore. It's a joke.
-
That early January period is one I would heavily bet against. When the pattern flips, we rarely, if ever, have success right when it flips.
-
Tilt negative please!
-
The big storm last winter was cool because it snowed for such a long time and I can't ever remember almost continuous snow for three days. But most of the time it was extremely light rates and of course areas northeast of us were getting smoked, so the realization you were so close to something big takes some of the fun away.
