osfan24

There is no doubt the warm layer hurt me, but the crab claw has gotten me big-time here. There's been a big band northwest of me all morning and then some stuff seemingly east of me. I'm just not getting any heavier returns. It looks like this last batch coming up can't avoid me.

Shocking that the NAM dropped the snow for tomorrow morning idea.

Pretty crazy the difference between me and you. You are probably 10 minutes up the road, maybe less, depending upon where you are in Sykesville. Not much happening here.

Just briefly turned to mostly snow in a heavier band but now back to freezing rain.

The NAM from a couple of days ago was obviously wrong. It was basically doing the same thing the GFS did for awhile, which was moving the storm progressively south and east and playing catch up. But you cannot argue over its performance over the past 24 hours, which is its wheelhouse. It was insistent that near 95 and south was likely to whiff on any snow accumulations. It had the main snow band way north, and that's going to be fairly accurate. Euro and GFS tried to shift a bit late but were still way overdone around 95, and the HRRR should be put on rocket and fired into outer space.

No, but the much-ridiculed NAM once again lead the way on this. What a winter it has had. You can take the GFS, HRRR, and Euro and throw them in the trash can. I'm sitting at 25 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems to go to all sleet in heavier bands. This is probably the most frustrating winter I can remember. At least some previous winters, you just closed the blinds and took the loss and took your lumps because you were coming off a run of really good winters. The amount of time I've spent tracking essentially nothing this winter makes me understand why Bob Chill stepped away.

Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event.

A faster changeover and a faster exit. What's not to like?

NAM actually looks interesting to me. Snow/mix line trajectory seems more NE/SW than E/W. It's still too far west, but it seemed to try to stay all snow for 95 and west. Didn't get it done but was interesting to see that change.

Looks like 2-4/3-6 for most, depending on location, before a flip to sleet.

Down to 28 here.

Where have I seen this scenario play out before.......... This map should be the poster child for the 2020-2021 winter.

3K is reallllyyy ugly for the area. It snows for an hour or two in most spots. Great consensus we got going on this mix line!

It comes in hard but it flips fast. It's basically the storm we've had 2 or 3 other times this year. Hopefully, we can keep the mix line south longer, but there is a definite trend on guidance to bring it north and bring it faster.

Despite how wet they are, SREFs have been sitting at around 3 inches of snow at BWI. Seems like a red flag on big snow hopes to me.

Yeah it's not much snow but is a very impactful storm. Lots of ice on top of the snow and makes it a 24 hour plus storm. Para looks great and seems to have been pretty steady.

GFS is warm. Appears to have caved to the warmer solutions. HRRR out there on an island it appears.

Well it was out of its generally useful range at that point, but it still was never as cold as the other models. Like one of the mets on here said, sometimes it can throw up red flags with temperatures.

It's a little better but still a bit of a trend happening. Hopefully, we can reverse it at 12z. NAM being so far north with the heaviest axis of snow still is a pretty big red flag, though.

Oh boy, that was a really rough 6z run. Has the NAM done it again??

I'm still waiting for my predicted blizzards from the past three storms.

Take a blend of the GFS and Euro and lock it up.

Nah, I think I got it.

Imagine that, someone cares enough to post on a weather message board about snowstorms and actually wants as much as snow they can get in their own yard. The horror.

What? How did overnight go poorly?