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osfan24

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Everything posted by osfan24

  1. osfan24
    One thing that always bothered me about this one was the trough orientation. It always seemed slightly positive to neutral and our big ones show the trough negative.
  2. osfan24
    I always thought the RGEM's biggest issue was it had a cold bias.
  3. osfan24
    I just don't get how the coastal low is going to develop so far south and we totally whiff. It's in a good spot for us to get crushed and similar to previous storms that crushed us.
  4. osfan24
    Exactly! Wasn't the formula for this that the less we got from Part 1, the better our chances for a big Part 2? Right? Anyone?
  5. osfan24
    In fairness, this winter has been barely better than last winter so far. I know we've probably gotten about 4 inches of snow this year compared to whatever last year was, but both winters have been awful. The good news is this winter is only half over and the last couple of weeks of February might hold promise.
  6. osfan24
    Was just about to say that. It's getting closer for us if you want to see snow, but if you want to see anything really accumulate, all the good stuff on all of those recent runs hasn't changed. It's all focused right around NYC.
  7. osfan24
    Snow picking up here now. Already the second best snow event this season, and almost certainly will be the best by mid afternoon. Still hoping models are just 50-100 miles too far north on the heaviest snow area and we can all get dumped on Monday.
  8. osfan24
    Just toggled back through the RGEM run and it really wasn't that far away from being really good again. The best bands get so close to pivoting over us and they either go straight west across PA or start to drop down toward us and then just don't quite make it much past the PA/MD border. The favored spots in Northern MD are still very much in the game.
  9. osfan24
    Doesn't look as good as earlier, especially now that the Euro and RGEM seem to be almost copies of each other, but there's still hope. That deform band is hard to pin down there's still over a day until it gets going.
  10. osfan24
    So it's now looking like ICON, Euro, RGEM are all basically in agreement. I'm going to guess the CMC shows something similar. And the GFS isn't that far off.
  11. osfan24
    I guess there is still time for a trend back south, but there's clearly a consensus growing that west of Philly up through NJ and into NYC is going to be the heaviest axis of snow.
  12. osfan24
    What implication would this have?
  13. osfan24
    Who cares? Almost time to get RGEM'd.
  14. osfan24
    Euro and GFS have some big totals near Baltimore. It just matters exactly what part, because the difference is huge based on how far south the band sinks and where it sinks south.
  15. osfan24
    The ones farthest south but fairly tucked in would match the RGEM closest, not that it means you would get the same snow amounts but..........
  16. osfan24
    Worried you need a snowblower? The plows will have too much snow to clear?
  17. osfan24
    Agreed. That was a really good post and it's amazing how similar those low positions are at that point.
  18. osfan24
    FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there.
  19. osfan24
    Look at the snow totals count up by the hour once the deform part of the storm begins. It's snowing like a tenth of an inch of snow for hours on end. That ain't gonna get it done. I'm sure it has something to do with the resolution, but like was mentioned before, the low needs to tuck farther south to get the best deform. The Euro is probably about 100-150 miles north of the RGEM.
  20. osfan24
    Yeah I was just coming to post that. At 1 pm, the RGEM is basically east of the mouth of the bay. The Euro is sitting off of Rehoboth.
  21. osfan24
    Euro seemed fairly tucked, but the precip isn't great, especially down this way. Deform band just drops a few inches. Hopefully it's wrong, but it doesn't seem to be budging and looks similar to the GFS to be honest.
  22. osfan24
    Here we go! Let's see a shift in our favor!
  23. osfan24
    That's an hourly simulation, but yes, the hope is it just stalls out and meanders for awhile. Just need it to do it in the right spot. Canadian models love us for some reason. Let's just pray they are right.
  24. osfan24
    Ha, beat me to it. Canada loves Baltimore!
  25. osfan24
    If the RGEM is right you can cook me on the grill.
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