osfan24

Now that looks better with the trough. Too little, too late, but had we seen a few runs sharpening it up like that, we may have been in business.

When the Srefs go up, usually means the NAM is about to be an improvement. That said, the only reason they went up if you look at the individual members, at least for BWI, a couple members went really high. Almost all the members are still below the mean of about 2.5 inches.

It looks worse by a tick, just noise I'm sure, but people posted it was better lol.

Between Baltimore and the Eastern Shore, the three biggest snowfalls have all been on the Eastern Shore going back to 2017.

For what?

4-8 for me from DT. I wish there was a way to wager on his maps.

Good for who? That low is way too far east for the metros. It's fine for OC.

Beat me to it. Hard to fathom how much of a weenie Tony Pann is if freaking Justin Berk is calling him out.

We shall see. Just like in sports, the fun part is the game is played and we get to see what happens.

Yeah, the coastal aspect of the NAM is actually worse than prior runs.

The NAM has like 2-3 inches of snow from that and it snows for hours and hours. Light rates like that are never going to accumulate, at least not on paved surfaces, when the temp is near freezing during the day. Grass, sure.

For snow to accumulate, yes it is, unless it is thumping.

It looks pretty similar to the prior couple of runs to me as to where the low ends up off the coast. We need the trough sharper. And again, it's the NAM. We need almost a due north movement from where it forms off of Florida. If that happened from where it formed we would be in business. The early stuff looks better, but aren't temperatures supposed to be pretty warm on Friday? Not sure how much of that would accumulate.

Yeah, the low is already too far east for us at 36.

I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

Just a shame they waited until the Euro went from king to useless.

Yeah, reading the comments was funny with people saying it was going to beautiful and such. Then I saw the panels and was wondering what the excitement was about.

Bermuda is anxiously awaiting tonight's runs.

Ha, is he being serious? Maybe he's looking at the wrong run? Boston gets semi-fringed and it's basically a whiff for everybody else.

Honestly at this point I think it would be hilarious if that was the final outcome.

The Euro has been awful this winter. That said, like PSU mentioned, we do know the Euro/NAM have a bias of amping these Milller B's too much and often the actual cutoff is 50 miles or so east of what those models show. So if you take that into account and that bias still exists, it looks more like the GFS and you can forecast off of that. But that's just for this particular setup, so obviously for other setups, it is still an issue. It also seems like the GFS has performed better this winter after it had been upgraded. We will see if it wins this one. It has company with the CMC, which usually seems to side more with the Euro.

The JMA being so amped was one of the few things we had going for us. That run makes a lot more sense given where the other models currently stand. The goalposts continue to narrow. Going to need to get Justin Tucker out here to have a prayer.

Wow, GFS and Euro are not at all on the same page still. Gonna be heartbreak or a huge celebration for coastal regions.

Nice small step forward, but we need to keep going that direction now. Can't afford steps back in future runs. It just doesn't quite get going soon enough for us. Still just way too far off the coast.

The NAM is rolling. Can it pull us back in?