BombsAway1288

You’re right outside my office lol. Great place for plane spotting too!

Absolutely amazing. I know the Euro had barely anything for you as recent as yesterday evening while the event was within 6 hours of go time. Any of the short range models also missed you?

Not an official report obviously but we gotta be close to a foot here and I’m close to the airport

Talk about being in the sweet spot. That band has been parked over you and it’s sick

With the amount of trolling you did up here in the last 5 days I think this comment is quite ironic and fair. Live and learn

Yeah saw that but think he caved tonight. 3 days ago he was on the GFS/SE train with the cold suppressing it. Flipping all over the place I guess.

Last I saw, he had Boston getting 12" and Worcester 15" or 16". Something change that I missed?

Whoa. That's a textbook crush job from PHL-BOS

It's pure jealousy or envious or whatever you want to call it. Everyone's dream in that area is for a NJ/NYC/LI jackpot and all of SNE to get skunked due to years of overperforming here. The run in 2015 sealed it. I know this because I used to be the same exact way being from NNJ before I moved up here lol

WSW watch up for SE Mass. Nothing yet north of that. BOX riding the GFS/SE models, for now

Thought you meant when did the ensembles go south and east. I'm not Will and terrible at remembering specific systems but do remember the NAM riding solo in the mid-long range on systems all by itself and scoring coupes. To be fair, I can't remember the GFS specific being an outlier and scoring a coupe but other models yes

Seeing the GFS ensembles so far south and east is concerning. We've seen outlier models score coupes before with big systems.

None of the ones I saw have an actual map with accumulations yet. Just probability/percentage chance maps for a plowable snow. Forecast accumulation maps will start to come out tomorrow afternoon for the local stations I believe.

This isn't even close to being a top analog for this system, snowfall wise. There will not be 10-20 inches of snow for the coastal mid-atlantic and the Carolina's. Come on now....

Early occlusion is usually best for WCT/NYC and SW of there. Storm blowing it’s load too early is usually never good for NE

It really is pretty accurate. As others have said, I've been doing it for years but when think about driving on the highway, you do slow to a crawl when you hit a wall of rain to snow. Enjoy!

The Google Maps traffic colors is an interesting way of seeing the rain/snow line haha

Interior SNE def still has a shot at some heavy snows but coastal areas are screwed at this point with a NE wind off the ocean in early December and a crappy overall airmass. A nice big high over Quebec would of come in handy here but alas, on to the next one for us coastal dwellers. Interior folk of SNE and NNE, enjoy your foot + that's probably on its way!

It's an improvement, no doubt. My last post was referring to the EPS but in terms of the OP, usually look at that 5+ days out for trends if anything and when it shows storms already cutting into Detroit, usually a good indicator that it will cut west at some sort of degree unless the EPS is showing completely different.

I see one strengthening low over BOS this saturday otherwise, it looks boring. Hope I'm wrong and usually when I bitch about things, they turn around but it just looks a lot like the last few years. Prove me wrong please

Good thing is that the GFS continues to remain very active with big storms in the LR. Bad thing is that they all cut up the apps. Another year with storm after storm cutting, bringing rains to Fort Kent is not gonna be fun

Huh? Sorry, but that is not right, unless you're referring to the short range hurricane models, the rest of the models have been atrocious this year in the medium-long range, at least earlier in the season. There was multiple occasions when both the GFS and Euro had hurricane's or TD's just dissipating as they reached the coast. Been an awful year for the globals.

The way the operational's have handled TC's in the medium-long range (even short-range) this year, I would be taking anything they show with a grain of salt.

Couldn't agree more. For years growing up in NE Bergen County I was always envious of New England because of exactly the longitude. A few met/mods have mentioned it before (think it was Tip) but the fact that NE basically sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the general trajectory of the entire eastern seasboard helps tremendously with our snowfall chances from storms just like yesterday. Of course latitude plays a role but not as much as the longitude helps. We're just in the perfect position sometimes for strengthening/bombing low's that take the SW-NE trek off the coast. NJ/NYC would tend to be just a bit too far west when a storm's at 40/70 while due to the fact that NE sticks out into the Atlantic, we get the goods. That's why LI/Suffolk County has done so well recently as they could catch a little bit of what NE gets, albeit on the the southern side. Yesterday was one for the ages though and nobody was expecting what we got being it's so early in the season and being right on the water yet as I type, it looks like January outside with 4.5" of now and 27 degrees. Reminded me so much of the October 2011 storm in NNJ in terms of surprise. A lot less tree damage here yesterday than from that one though. Hopefully this year we can all get some good miller A's and storms that delivers the goods from Philly on northwards. DC is kind of a lost cause since 2010 (with the one exception being the 2016 storm) and will continue to be. They're just too far south and too warm these days.