BombsAway1288

Yes, even so. If we end up with a few more 3"-6" events, would be a top 5 ratter in the last 20 years.

If a 6” snowstorm is all we see for the season, that’ll be an all time low at least for my generation

Anyone from ENE north of Boston that went to UMass knows exactly where Shutesbury is. Has one main road that's the perfect cut through to get to Rt. 2 from Amherst. That little town is awesome! The topography is really neat. At the bottom of the road it's like 300 ft ASL. Go up the road heading east and goes up to about 1,200 ft ASL and the weather reflects it. IDK how many times I had rain or wet heavy snow in Amherst and a quick drive to Shutesbury cured my snow needs. They were also hit pretty hard in the Dec 08 icestorm. Was just as bad as some places in the northern Worcester Hills while 2 miles to the west in Amherst (and surrounding areas) was rain. If I was forced to live out there, Shutesbury would be at the top of the list.

Really!? I would of thought you of all people would say this is gonna crush the 95 corridor. Really surprised you're going with a whiff and no snow accumulation

The first outdoor NHL game back in 2003 was the coldest of all-time with a temp of 0 I think. Was played outside in Edmonton in late November. Tonight should break that record for coldest ever.

On Sunday and Monday, Fairbanks, AK was raining with temps at 40 degrees. Think it was 1 degree off a record high on one day and a record high on another day. With warmth in Alaska this time of year usually means cold and storminess here but not the winter of 2021-2022! Looks like it will find a way to torch here this winter no matter what

Yikes! It's amazing, Christmas never fails to be warm in some sort of way. Chalk up another AN holiday.

Well if it's not going to be a white christmas then the least I think people would want is a nice cold, winter type of day. Just for those 2 days. Who enjoys 50's on Christmas? We don't live in the south

Not by much sadly. If that is the coldest of all the models for Christmas you can pretty much bank on it being in the mid 40's along the coast at least. Also takes the southern storm for the 23rd and sends it out to Bermuda. Not great trends today.

Welp, so much for a very cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. That's a lot of warmth over the lower 2/3rds of the US on the 25th, pushing 90 in Texas . At least the storm for the 23rd came back a little and phased a lot sooner than 18z but still misses all of NE. We'll see what the next runs bring.

Well it was completely opposite at 12z with many chances for storms. Will probably continue the flip flopping in the long range and show a more active look at 00z

At least it looks cold for the 24th and 25th. If any snow comes from the 23rd threat it will guarantee a white christmas wherever it falls. Just seen the GFS when it comes to temps but it has been pretty consistent the last couple days with sub-freezing highs all over the northeast. Probably colder if there's snow on the ground

Of course there is a model consensus of OTS for the 23-24 threat but it's close. Not terribly far off for something much bigger. Pretty active moving forward.

Yeah, anywhere within a mile or 2 of the river might as well have the same snow climo as Central Jersey. It's really bad being sandwiched with the Berkshires to the west (never good to have some N-S mountain chain just to the west of you) and Worcester Hills to the east. Topography has to be one of the worst in NE

That area is brutal to begin with snow-wise. Went to Umass-Amherst from 07-11 and I think the most from one storm was like 11". Usually just too far west for big coastals and temps are on par for SE Mass in that valley. They switched over so many times in light precip when I was there I cant even count. I do remember though in the late 90's and early 2000's that area getting hit hard by coastals. Seemed back then that the mean storm track was right over the Cape and from ORH west would get clobbered. The last 20 years that mean storm track has moved more towards the BM (last 2 years even further south and east) hence the constant screwjobs for the Pioneer Valley

Probably should of specified a marginal airmass within a couple miles of the coast. Yeah, anywhere west of Boston should be good temp wise in the upper 20's. As for the coast, there's no chance of good accumulation when temps are near freezing and the precip is light

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast. On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

Gotta think the GFS and ensembles make a major move towards other guidance by 12z Sunday. No support from anything else

No

Heavy graupel in northern Bergen County. Place looks like a fertilizer truck spilt his load.

Yes, NYC usually does get something but it's just that, something. They always seem to be late/delayed in developing and if there is a fast flow, which has really been prevalent in recent times, SNE is where you want to be. Kind of hard to really get pumped up for them when Central Park gets 3" and Boston gets 12"-18" but yeah NYC usually doesn't end up with 0. DC-Philly is exactly not where you want to be with Miller B's. They're snow climo is the worst for cold weather cities and only getting worse.

Think that's going to be the theme going forward with this one unfortunately. Miller B's usually develop too late for the NYC area. Most likely a Connecticut River on east for the highest impact. Really wish I wasn't visiting family in NJ until Tuesday

Does the 12z show anything for the 28-30 timeframe?

3 overlapping tornado warnings right over Providence. That's something you don't see everyday around here

No. Just seen your posts throughout the years. I think most would agree. Done.