BombsAway1288

That area is brutal to begin with snow-wise. Went to Umass-Amherst from 07-11 and I think the most from one storm was like 11". Usually just too far west for big coastals and temps are on par for SE Mass in that valley. They switched over so many times in light precip when I was there I cant even count. I do remember though in the late 90's and early 2000's that area getting hit hard by coastals. Seemed back then that the mean storm track was right over the Cape and from ORH west would get clobbered. The last 20 years that mean storm track has moved more towards the BM (last 2 years even further south and east) hence the constant screwjobs for the Pioneer Valley

Probably should of specified a marginal airmass within a couple miles of the coast. Yeah, anywhere west of Boston should be good temp wise in the upper 20's. As for the coast, there's no chance of good accumulation when temps are near freezing and the precip is light

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast. On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

Gotta think the GFS and ensembles make a major move towards other guidance by 12z Sunday. No support from anything else

No

Heavy graupel in northern Bergen County. Place looks like a fertilizer truck spilt his load.

Yes, NYC usually does get something but it's just that, something. They always seem to be late/delayed in developing and if there is a fast flow, which has really been prevalent in recent times, SNE is where you want to be. Kind of hard to really get pumped up for them when Central Park gets 3" and Boston gets 12"-18" but yeah NYC usually doesn't end up with 0. DC-Philly is exactly not where you want to be with Miller B's. They're snow climo is the worst for cold weather cities and only getting worse.

Think that's going to be the theme going forward with this one unfortunately. Miller B's usually develop too late for the NYC area. Most likely a Connecticut River on east for the highest impact. Really wish I wasn't visiting family in NJ until Tuesday

Does the 12z show anything for the 28-30 timeframe?

3 overlapping tornado warnings right over Providence. That's something you don't see everyday around here

No. Just seen your posts throughout the years. I think most would agree. Done.

I would just ignore everything that guy says. He's a known troll in the NYC forum and is 5 posted because of it. Just posts in here to shit on Anthony or cause some 300hr+ GFS run shows a ridge while most have been talking cold and snow. Anything to go against cold and snow.

Thanks. Of course the temp difference could of been a result of some colder years and not necessarily a warm 1980's. 2011 and 2012 were the super cold years after the October snowstorm and Sandy respectively, I think

Interesting that the mean temp for 10/31 went down in the most recent set of averages. Must have been some warm Halloween's in the 80's.

Wind threat wasn't there with Ida, just copious amounts of rain in like a 4 hour period. If the winds deliver on this one there will be tree problems, maybe not so much in the city cause its the city but in surrounding suburbs where there are more trees then there could be problems

It would from tons of uprooted trees but there would probably be enough lead time to restore order by Sunday

If the winds are really that strong we run the risk of numerous power outages thanks to freshly saturated ground ala March 2010

Is it really? That doesn't sound right.

Pretty amazing that 3 of the top 6 amounts happened within basically a 2 month span in 1913 on all separate events.

Yeah there's tons of us. Must be the most of any state outside of New England.

32 NJ transplant (and die-hard Yankees fan) who's back and forth for work. Winter's are spent up here though

That's absolutely insane. Just your everyday stovepipe tornado plowing by the toll booths on the NJ Turnpike lol. What an unbelievably historic day unfolding from here down to the Mid-Atlantic.

The 2 tweets on the previous page were good enough for me. Truly major hurricane conditions. Storm chasers for the most part are not going to put themselves in the extreme heart of the danger right on the coast (Grand Isle, Golden Meadows).

Pressure only got down to 982mb?

Anybody have a Weather Channel streaming link?