jjwxman

Same here in the Triad.

The 12z Euro is even less impressive than the 00z. It’s like, what CAD?

The Euro remains the least impressive on the CAD setup. WAA overwhelms the CAD very quickly for all of NC. CLT and Upstate SC never even gets in the game and even GSO is on the edge. At this point it’s definitely a plausible outcome, but I’m not so sure the Euro has a good handle on the CAD.

I do agree that the CAD is probably going to end up being stronger, but since a majority of this is occurring during the day the ice accrual could be inhibited due to run off. Temps have to be in the upper 20’s for these .50”+ totals were seeing to verify in my opinion.

Taken verbatim, the 12z Euro has me at 32+ and rain Wednesday morning... You're a mean one...

The 12z Euro is confirming my thoughts... for now. Wednesday looks like a better set up for something, particularly in the CAD favored areas.

The Monday setup doesn't look to be ideal to me with HP still over the Manitoba province. But as that HP system moves into a more somewhat favorable area we need to watch the S/W moving out of the Rockies on Tuesday. Right now the 12z GFS progresses this into a Miller B like storm system on Wednesday. However if the energy is able to dig further south that could yield something in the SE. We shall see.

You might be right. Based on this plot map, it looks like they were apart of the circulation for a while traversing the pinhole eye. I’m sure that was a wild ride.

Which in turn increases the severe threat over a larger portion of central NC. Look at this sounding about 30 miles south of Greensboro Thursday night via the 00z NAM 12km.

The 12z Euro is much slower with the remnants over AL and GA before the front sweeps it out. If that verifies, the double digits could be attainable.

9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78. FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor.

I believe the algorithms used to determine the STP are different among different model websites. Pivotal weather in my opinion has a more realistic outcome with STP in the 5-7 range (which is still really significant) across MS/AL/S TN. Other pages such as COD Meteorology and WeatherBell have the STP in the 12-15 range which is just off the charts, but maybe a bit misleading as well?

Most of the modeling data has surface CAPE established by early Monday morning. Some of the modeling data is slowing the system a bit further into Monday in the Carolinas and Virginia, that would allow for even more time for destabilization.

Finished with 2” in Randleman. (15 miles south of Greensboro)

Sticking nicely in Greensboro. Roads still wet.

Started as snow in GSO. Coming down pretty good now. 38 degrees and falling.

Started as all snow in GSO, no rain nor sleet. Coming down pretty good now.

I have seen that as well. It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well.

The HRRR is making a case for more snow around Fayetteville. On the current analysis you can see the rain has really help to cool the column a lot faster in Central/SE NC.

38/33 Randleman, NC

The HRRR is having some big issues with evaporational cooling. No way The whole column is below freezing and surface temps are in the low 40's. I don't buy it. Here is the sounding over central NC during the height of the event.

That's a bit concerning. The snow finally breaks out over far NE NC.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the afternoon or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel conditions could extend into Friday morning where higher snow accumulations occur and wet or icy spots linger. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties.

I expect some snow outside of the Mtns on this 36 hr 18z run. The surface temps were 4-6 degrees colder at the end of the 17z run verses the 12z run at the same time frame. The 18z is running now.