jjwxman
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Everything posted by jjwxman
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Exactly... we've seen this all Winter long from one model or another. In this case most of the globals show the storm system, which is encouraging, but I'm holding on to my big grain of salt for now. Lol
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This thread is now "hot".... Must have been a nice 12z model suite! Let's finish Winter 2018- 2019 strong!
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Enjoy this eye candy while it lasts...
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That HP is in a great spot for a CAD special.
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Well at least it's not just the FV3 on board this time, there's actually some support from the globals. Something watch, but yea wouldn't surprise me at all to see it go poof!
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GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA. 150 hrs out... So hard to trust this model though.
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That’s more like a leap in the wrong direction compared to the 18z. Ouch.
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Here in the NW Piedmont of NC it hardly ever works out because of downslope. There has to be a secondary trigger like a wave of LP or an upper air disturbance to wring out any left over moisture. I'm not sold yet.
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While we got a long ways to go, maybe just maybe this will turn into something. The CMC and Euro showing at least some potential in the Day 9 time frame. Would love to see the EPS have this closer to the coast. 12z Euro below:
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18z NAM taken verbatim, in GSO freezing rain Wednesday Morning with temps near 30, by Midnight temps could warm to near 60 degrees.... Ok, Gotta love it.
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Great Euro run... but man I wish we were talking 5-6 days and not 9-10. But hey the CMC had this storm as well, so there's that.
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Swing and a miss for the 12z GFS (old). Give it time...
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That's the 12z CMC.
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The RGEM was way overdone on cold and precip on the 12-13th event.
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FWIW: 1/25/19. 12z OP GFS vs 12z GEFS.
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12z HRRR...
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Pivotal now has skew-T plots for the CMC. Classic Ice Storm over Central NC at hour 138. Just one of many outcomes still on the table. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2019010712&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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Geez, I'd take 33 and rain over the apocalyptic ice storm the CMC has. Drops 1.50-1.75" qpf over the I-85 corridor which remains below freezing for the event.
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It's now the "old" GFS. Let's see what the FV3 has to offer. Out with the old in with the new right? Heh...
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FWIW: The 6Z GEFS MSLP Anomaly doesn't jive with the OP. More Miller A-like.
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Pivotal Weather has a better simulation than TT (and snow maps). It just light precip, based on the sounding it should be a rain snow mix in GSO at hour 36.
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NAM definitely trended south with the higher snowfall totals since 18z yesterday. Here's Thursday's 18z and this morning's 06z run.
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Wow! That’s approaching Dec. 2002 type of Ice Storm. All in all, this run was colder than the 18z. More snow in the Piedmont this run. Verbatim the Triad got 2-3” Kuchera on the 18z Run, on the 00z run the Triad got 5-6” of snow before the switch. So maybe slowly the NAM is begining to adjust cooler. Fingers crossed.
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18z FV3, hr 72.
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GFS 69:
