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jjwxman

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  1. jjwxman
    12z GEFS snowfall mean.
  2. jjwxman
    In RAH’s video update put out around 12:30pm on YouTube they told folks not to change their weekend plans, just keep aware of latest forecasts.
  3. jjwxman
  4. jjwxman
    It's the NEW GFS! What could go wrong??
  5. jjwxman
    The FV3 is all love for a good portion of NC and Southern VA.
  6. jjwxman
    The 12z GFS is about to start it's run on TT. Let's see what kind of craziness the the 12z suite will us bring today.
  7. jjwxman
    FWIW the 6z GEFS had several members jump north, although the mean still looks further south.
  8. jjwxman
    I did take note of that. There were only two or three EPS members that had a somewhat close 00z OP outcome. 0 out of 50 had 30" totals like the OP had for the NW NC Mountains and SW VA.
  9. jjwxman
    RAH is all in for the Triad. Makes me a little uneasy.
  10. jjwxman
    Yea, RAH is wisely erring on the side of caution as they often do. They are mentioning that CAD favored areas may see at least a wintry mix of all P-Types Saturday night.
  11. jjwxman
    Yes I will be very surprised if the GFS doesn’t commence a more suppressed campaign for the next 24-48 hours. Always happens it seems.
  12. jjwxman
    Global models underestimate the CAD, so it may be more of a realistic outcome.
  13. jjwxman
    The 12z FV3 was a very cold run. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt= http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2018120212&fh=162&r=us_ma&dpdt=
  14. jjwxman
    Taken verbatim the GFS drops 6-8 over the Triad before it changes to rain... But I’m not so sure I buy the switch over to rain along and west of the I-85 Corridor. Who knows...
  15. jjwxman
    So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts?
  16. jjwxman
    Many areas in western NC have already had a surplus of rain this year. A stalling hurricane plus strong wind gusts over this area would be terrible. Let's hope against that outcome.
  17. jjwxman
    Raleigh is considering upgrading portions of the NW Piedmont to a Warning in their afternoon forecast package. Discussion: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northwest and Northern Piedmont including the Triad area for 1 to possibly 2 inches of wet snow. A Warning may be needed for portions of the Northwest Piedmont and the Advisory may need to be extended eastward with the afternoon forecast package...
  18. jjwxman
    Thundersnow reported in Jackson, MS earlier.
  19. jjwxman
    The NWS offices across the deep south/ SE are reporting overachieving occuring.
  20. jjwxman
    Looks like the classic case of GOM convection blocking moisture transport to me. Nothing can kill a storm system in the SE faster than GOM convection.
  21. jjwxman
    I was happy with the Euro run. It was a good average between all the 12z data. I personally believe the best case scenario is Allen's first guess map. 1-4" would be a big win anywhere in NC before the Winter Solstice. Perspective, it's not even Winter yet.
  22. jjwxman
    But, without a CAD the WAA is less noticeable in the soundings even though it is definitely there. This set up is definitely unique to our usual snow set ups. Interesting times ahead!
  23. jjwxman
    One problem with that idea is there is no HP to the north. Much easier for WAA to invade without it IMO.
  24. jjwxman
    FWIW, the NAM 3km. Hr 60 is dangerous, but Warmer profiles noted.
  25. jjwxman
    At 54 dewpoints are in the upper 20's in the Triad. Upper 30's surface. Any moderate precip would be snow, per sounding.
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