jjwxman

The 12z GFS is cooking up something massive for Christmas week.

I agree @SnowDawg. For reference here's Monday's 00z run and Tuesday's 00z run of the Euro for the same time frame.

If the CAD can lock down, it would make sense because the precipitation would arrive earlier.

The 00z NAM serves up a Foothills special. If icing is to occur, west of I-77 seems the most plausible outcome.

The NAM has not been as quick to move the HP out like the GFS. At hour 84 the NAM has the HP centered over Mass. while the GFS has the HP already over Nova Scotia. I tend to agree with @griteater . If anyone gets anything frozen it will be the result of impeccable timing.

Be careful... it's really easy to be NAM'd!! Lol But yes, that's something to keep an eye on. Looking at the 12z NAM run, the Dew Points Thursday evening are in the mid to upper teens in NC and the Upstate of SC. For comparison the GFS on the 6z run had dew points in the upper 20's, low 30's Thursday evening. The 12z NAM is actually colder dew point wise than the 00z CMC at the same time frame.

I deem this not safe for social media.

Taken verbatim, 00z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm in NC along the HWY 1 and I-95 Corridor. Some measurable snow falls in the Triangle and Triad. Temps are very marginal, so melting/run off would likely cut into all amounts shown.

00z GFS is barely hanging on.... for NC folks. It’s a very quick mover. We’re approaching 5 days out. We got to get some agreement from the remaining globals before I bite. @mackerel_sky not ready to pass just yet... but you’re right... the trend is your friend.

Wow... Now that's a text book CAD set up.

This is definitely intriguing. Particularly since the global models tend to underestimate the CAD at times. This has the makings of a sneaky little system.

With this technically being the first Winter for the new GFS... I’m anticipating whiplash all season long. Lol

LOL at the long range 6z GFS. Basically the entire east coast will be shut down after that one.

Regardless, I'm not sure if I've ever seen wind speeds this high above the surface over NC. Incredible. Lots of potential, but like @downeastnc said the bust potential is high as well.

The word "Historic" should only be used during or after an event IMO. 4/16/11 was historic.

But the 12z NAM suite just made a case for the moderate risk... Geez look at those backing SE Surface winds. Increased surface cape as well, slower with the system.

For the Carolinas: I don't think we'll see a Moderate Risk. (but what do i know ) There are few things that will plague this forecast. 1st. The influx of tropical moisture will likely cause a warm layer around the 700-500mb level, this will weaken the mid level lapse rates. 2nd. The whole column looks very tropical, there will likely be a lot of cloud cover so CAPE will be limited. 3rd. PW values will likely be at record territory for this time of year, and with the slow progress of the system west to east, flooding will probably be the forefront of this event from training storms. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 2-4" rain totals in some areas. 4th. If we do see some sun and decent destabilization then this could turn out to be a significant severe weather event, particular for damaging winds, the hodographs are more elongated than curved, so the tornado threat should remain isolated in nature unless we get more backing from SE surface winds. A lot to decipher over the coming days.

That's good analysis from RAH. The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally.

It want be long until the sun starts to break through.

Here's the 12z HRRR sounding over central NC at 20z. Storms begin to initiate shortly after this sounding at 21z. Damaging winds, and hail seem to be the main threats. Wouldn't rule out a spin up on the more discrete cells that form ahead of the main line of convection.

Where the heck was this in Jan and February... lol, What Beautiful set up... The 12z Euro was just a hair too warm this run.

Trying my best to not get sucked in....

The 00z GFS has the LP considerably further south than the 18z run. Probably nothing, just intriguing to me.

Shocking isn't! Glad I held on to my big grain of salt! Ha!

Ha, the Euro now has temps in the mid 60's over central NC with thunderstorms Sunday evening/night. Ugh..............