CAPE

I just walked out onto the deck in my underwear and socks. Chilly day.

Yes it is. I am not giving up on that period at all. Its a week away lol. Heck the late week period still might produce a little something. I was just pointing out the differences on the guidance from a few days ago, which imo, might bode well more so for the following week. One thing is for sure, there will be more changes on the upcoming model cycles.

I was replying to Ji's "what happened to early March?" post. I was illustrating what I think has changed in the guidance for the first threat window in early March. Not sure it's a "step up" when we had a look that was advertising coastal lows with snow, and now we have a different advertised h5 look with more cutters showing up for the same period. eta- I think PSU was making more of a general observation, and you are sort of misrepresenting it in the context of my post.

Well yeah, that's the point lol. We all are. Was looking at your previous post, which is all well and good, but what happened to the next Saturday deal? I used the EPS in my original post, but probably easier to see it on the GFS/GEFS- but go back 3 days when it had the nice coastal for the 2nd and compare it to the most recent runs. That was a nice set up on the means, and the op runs were spitting out a coastal snowstorm. H5 is not as favorable for that period now. It has degraded!!. Soo.. now we are on the the next D10 threat.

Lets see how things progress over the next few runs. As I said in my initial post, its not a bad look at all, but I preferred the look from a few days ago. For it to snow here, I need a juiced up wave that tracks underneath or a coastal storm that tracks slightly east of the BN. Both of those options were showing up on guidance, and still are to some extent. Unless we have a pretty anomalous set up, in March, coastal huggers are mostly rain here (my yard), inland tracks are rain. I have seen enough failed west track/retreating cold/CAD setups this winter lol. Bottom line is I am probably looking at/evaluating the guidance and what is being advertised a bit differently than some others here, especially you northern hinterland people.

Cold patterns tend to be overdone on the guidance in the long range. Given we will be in March, I want to see the ensemble guidance continue to advertise the more 'extreme' solutions, because we know what we end up with will fall well short of that. I don't "fear" cold and dry, or suppression, or OTS in March. If it happens, so be it. The most likely outcome is cold and wet, despite tracking all the "good looks".

The "50-50 low" showing up on the mean is actually a series of lobes rotating up through that region, and they are trucking along with not a hint of blocking over the top. Without some sort of phase, it will probably come down to timing of those vortices as they rotate down, with some moisture from a ss wave. Seen that before right?

No its not bad, but in general the TPV is weaker on recent runs and doesn't rotate down as far in the east(anomalous cold focused further west). On the second image. there looks to be a stretching of the lower heights to the SW under that EPO ridge and a trough forms off the Pac NW. I want to see the NS energy more consolidated on the means and dig, dig, dig! south. This is March, not January lol.

There is still some potential for next weekend on the mean(cluster of lows of the NC coast), but the better chance is probably early the following week at this point. FWIW that is when the snow mean ticks up.

In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago. 5 runs ago the EPS looked like this- Now it looks like this- Good news is, the (useless) snowfall mean maps look a little better lol.

Gotta admit, I kinda chucked at this for some reason.

I couldn't care less if the roads are wet or snow covered. Not a schoolboy looking for early dismissal. If there is a foot of snow on all other surfaces and the roads are just wet, that's F'ing perfect. Well it would be without all the damn road salt.

RR trying too hard. Kraft is a scum ball. Enough said. NFL conduct standards- do they really apply to the owners the same as the players? They should be higher. We shall see.

Super gross.

Isn't this dude worth like 7 bn? Da fuk is he doing in some sleazy day spa in Florida?

It was fine lol. But Ji would be like- cutters and sliders and it didn't give us a flake!

Lol Robert Kraft. Patriot haters(most of the world) are gonna have a field day with this.

I'll just fill in for Ji here. 12z GFS is a DISASTER.

There continues to be a signal for a coastal, maybe a legit miller A, for around the 2nd. Lots of moving parts and timing involved as usual, especially with the TPV lobes rotating down.

Some of us actually know how to use the guidance as a tool, and understand they are not a means for instant gratification. The Ji freak outs are because he wants the latter.

That's pretty good stuff. 5.2 and 2.7 are the biggest events for me.

Hard to get tired of something I have only had one of. Unless its something like Murphy's Stout.

I have liked the chance of a sneaky event mid-late next week. There have been hints on the ops and the ensembles. Most likely it would be on the light side and probably favor coastal areas just to the NE of our region, but worth keeping an eye on.

You mean over the next 6 days? This is hardly a shocking development.

Nailed it. This is how it would actually go down.