CAPE

Those maps shift around from run to run beyond D7, but I was looking more at the EPS than the GEFS. If guidance should begin to hone in on a discrete event with the upcoming "cold period", then those maps will indicate that. Otherwise they wax and wane and overall reflect the unfavorable pattern for snow that persists for the MA. The pattern this week strongly favors waves tracking up the Apps, then towards the end of the week right overhead. That one looks like a soaker on guidance. Could see widespread 2-3" rain totals along I-95 this week. Cold air comes in on the heels of the Friday storm. Verbatim the GFS is suggesting a brief period of snow for NW areas as the low departs.

Oh there will be storms to track, but those probability maps from the ens means continue to be indicative of a pattern where chances for frozen are low south of about central PA.

^Lolz Like... Christian rock or something? I thought it was pretty damn entertaining, and inspiring. And ofc those comments weren't surprising, given that 2 talented Hispanic women were performing, representing, and totally delivering. Clearly an uncomfortable situation for some.

Yeah pretty shocking, given they were the most dominating running team outside of the Ravens this season. AND their QB is... Jimmy effing G.

He will learn. Mostly he will learn that Jimmy G is not Patrick MaHome-boy.

Any team but the Pats winning makes it 100x better.

My fav Shakira song

Congrats Andy Reid. Good guy. Good coach.

Lol I bet.

WTF just happened in this game? I was in great position to win another 200 bucks. (Already won a 100).

Apparently some folks thought the halftime show was quite disgraceful. Re: the comments. Hardly surprising. https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/jennifer-lopez-message-shakira-super-bowl-liv-halftime

No signs of meaningful changes in the HL on the ensembles. Our best shot at a more favorable pattern towards the end of the month probably still lies with some changes on the Pacific side- to get the ridge to migrate further east. Given the persistence there all winter, that's not much to hang onto either lol.

I was out in the yard digging up dandelions this morning. Those prolific bastards have not been fazed at all by this lame "winter".

Pretty cool stuff but the mountains all look like the fortress of solitude.

Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb Verbatim it looks like a very workable gradient pattern for the MA. Problem is it's in the LR and these decent looks tend to morph into something less favorable as we move closer to reality when we are stuck in an overall crap pattern.

Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.

Yeah more weather we love to track but perpetually fail at lol.

Epic west-based -NAO on the way.

I'll take my chances every single time though.

Yep. About right.

Got plenty of that! And 38 and showers sounds about right for us lowlanders. Looking at the EURO, it looks like things come together for a decent duration of good lift over DE and esp southern NJ. Don't think temps will cooperate though.

Not sure about rates. Will have to fall heavily for a decent duration to overcome LL temps, and ofc the warm, soggy soil.

No happy ending tho.

We lost our MJO outlook expert. Whatabout the CFS?

Weeklies have very limited use imo. Probably ok for taking a quick look at week 3 to see how the pattern may evolve based on the advertised D15 look.