CAPE

Thanks.

I wouldn't worry too much about the end of an op run. Recent GEFS runs have been consistently depicting a developing west based block beyond day 10, as has the EPS.

Who is "them"?

I am just having a bit of fun. I do most of my "productive" posts in the early AM. I am down with all of these general ideas and have been for awhile.

Some of us don't honk. We just state what the current guidance is depicting, add a little context, and speculate a bit. Ofc I am probably not a well respected poster, so no one really cares what I say.

High of 32. Kept a fire going all day. Heat pump didn't kick on once.

Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting.

Where's Ji? I need to know if HH GFS is a disaster. Looks like we are going for the trifecta on the 9th.

I am still pretty optimistic. And i have seen 14 flakes. Yesterday. I counted them.

You haven't been here long enough to miss any of the posters who choose not to post here anymore, for whatever their reasons are. Or maybe you have..

Mersky? LOL

The persistent vortex parked in the vicinity of AK, with relatively warmer ocean temps, strong/further north Pac jet, prob makes enough of difference wrt to cold in our nearby source region compared to past years. The -AO is usually money here to deliver cold enough air for snow. Lets see how it plays out over the coming weeks with the advertised negative AO/NAO. Maybe going forward a -WPO/EPO will become more highly correlated to snow for the DC area than a -AO. Ofc we are also in a Nina, and some of the "struggles" we are seeing are inherent in the ENSO background state- which also may be shifting.

A guess maybe we need a thread for noob etiquette. Most know better than to barge in and assume we have all been just flailing around in here for years and years waiting to be educated by some wise ass.

He didn't bother reading anything. He is gonna tell us all how it is though!

Good luck making your 4th post a quality one.

I was serious. Might work. That's about 10 days into Jan, and not like it's a torch. We are probably stuck with modified Pac airmasses until further notice.

End of the GEFS run at h5. Funky look. Little better out west though.

Perfectly located Baffin Block at hour 342 on the GEFS. Here are the surface temp anomalies at that time. Might work lol.

The block retrogrades into the sweet spot beyond that timeframe on the EPS and GEFS. Only problem is there is no cold air anywhere close by lol.

I am sure there is something to it, but ofc in his world everything ties to the PV. All above my pay grade. Just looking at h5 though, the advertised mildness would appear to be more directly related to the big ass trough sitting near AK, in combination with the Pac jet.

Both are true to some extent. I was just effing around a bit with that post, although it is accurate..to some extent.

As long as the models get those numbers to the desired levels at day 15, perpetually, we good!

People pay more attention to the esoteric voodoo shit when the LR pattern doesn't look so good.

Judah has his explanation for the modeled mild period in the east for early Jan. Ofc it is related to SPV disruption. What else could it be?!

This stuff is fun to discuss, especially when the perception is that the longwave pattern isn't evolving as hoped/as fast, but it's difficult to predict whether the effects will be net positive, negative, or anything impactful at all. The SPV could take the hit and then quickly rebound.