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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It is fun to look at but its absurd and will not ever come close to verifying.
  2. CAPE
    That's not an awful look even for interior NC. If that block is as advertised, and going with seasonal trends, that ridge may well verify flatter. As for my brother, he has already stolen all my snow so far lol.
  3. CAPE
    Dude getting an extremely favorable AO/NAO in Feb is entirely different than having it in mid Dec, plus we have the TPV on our side and some legit cold in our source region. It likes to snow in Feb anyway. As long as the Pac is serviceable, there will be some legit chances ahead with the advertised HL look.
  4. CAPE
    This is weenie stuff.
  5. CAPE
    This period continues to look intriguing. I mean, damn. Pretty decent look at h5.
  6. CAPE
    Yeah this is not a new thing. Pretty normal in WAA events with cold in place but relaxing, and ofc there are additional issues with the transfer to the coastal. If anyone is surprised that this will not be a pure snow event almost everywhere, they have probably spent way too much time gawking at dumb snow maps.
  7. CAPE
    Dunno. We will warm above 0 at 850 for a time, so it all depends on how much warming we see at the surface, and how much precip falls during that period. All guidance has us at least into the mid 30s on Monday.
  8. CAPE
    34/11 Probable outcome for my yard- Cold powder to wet snow, sleet, snizzle, and drizzle, a dryslot, then some rain, wet snow and maybe cold powder on the back end. Let's git it.
  9. CAPE
    NE MD pummeled?
  10. CAPE
    12z Euro was pretty sweet. If it and the CMC are more correct than the GFS, we should all be pretty happy. Biggest issue will be temps after the thump- mid to upper 30s for a few hours isn't too bad with some light rain falling, but the GFS likes low 40s and even has some heavy rain before the cold comes back in. Hopefully its wrong and wont get that warm for that long, but we know how that goes with a developing coastal low and stiff east winds off the Atlantic.
  11. CAPE
    Yup and the top layer of soil is dry as a bone for the first time here in many months, not to mention it's been frozen the last few days.
  12. CAPE
    Yeah the CMC had it, more so on the 0z run, and I thought the GFS was going there but it was just light stuff.
  13. CAPE
    Like.
  14. CAPE
    We lost 5-6" from the 0z run lol. The banding on the back side was better for our area than 12z.
  15. CAPE
    Hugging the crap out of the Canadians.
  16. CAPE
    I was asking about the GFS Para lol. I got the CMC.
  17. CAPE
    CMC has not been bad here. 36-37 but not for long. GFS is a long duration torch.
  18. CAPE
    What are the worst surface temps as the coastal is getting going for this area? Low 40s like the GFS?
  19. CAPE
    Still a ways to go for eastern areas. GFS still torches the surface here for hours with rain falling. That has not changed over recent runs. We would lose all the snow from the front end, and end up with maybe 2-3 on the ground verbatim. Look at the placement of the 850 mb low on the RGEM compared to the GFS as it exits the coast. Hug the Canadians.
  20. CAPE
    Yeah I know, but eastern areas can sometimes cash in on the sw edge of a developing coastal. I wont mention Boxing day 2010. oops.
  21. CAPE
    Too much dry slot. We ain't even sniffing the deform band on the NAMs Many hours of light rain/drizzle and then some snizzle and a few snow showers once the upper levels cool. Maybe an inch or so on the back end.
  22. CAPE
    I would choose Sykesville. Better shot to get in on the CCB as it looks now. That part of the storm is still iffy on the guidance, and subject to some changes imo.
  23. CAPE
    As usual I sleep through the overnight stuff and evaluate in the AM. And I don't go back and read the thread lol. This is pretty much going as I expected for my yard. I have always hoped the front end would maximize, and had low expectations beyond that. Front end still looks ok, although I think the forecast here of 4-8 through Sunday night might be a bit optimistic.
  24. CAPE
    I never thought there was enough confluence with this one. The NA vortex is on the move as this system slowly evolves, so we lose the 'suppressive' element and the mechanism to keep the cold feed from the NE as the transfer is unfolding. I knew early on that there would be some rain here, and why I never bought the somewhat suppressed/colder Euro runs.
  25. CAPE
    Don't forget the E wind effing up the lower levels. Mild rainy day here much of Monday. Oh yeah the Euro caved lol.
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