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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Awful post. Just stop.
  2. CAPE
    I had an initial band move through here with a nice dusting. Stopped now. Really wasn't suppose to get going until mid morning for eastern areas.
  3. CAPE
    Light snow and 28. Dusting so far.
  4. CAPE
    The other thing that is interesting on the GFS is this panel as the deform band is just beginning to develop nw of the low. Has some heavy precip and 850s and surface are cooling at the same time. This is 'recorded' as rain (here) verbatim on the model, but maybe it ends up rain flipping to snow as temps are starting to crash during this window. GFS is also warmer than other guidance. ICON has it too and it thinks it's snow here.
  5. CAPE
    On the Euro when 850mb low moves a bit SE off the SNJ coast it gets into a pretty decent spot. This is what I have been watching. Cant see the upper levels on the Icon, but I have a feeling it looks similar. GFS has the action further east/southeast during this timeframe.
  6. CAPE
    Hugging the Euro and 6z ICON for the coastal. Both get some nice banding here. Mount Holly seems less enthused about the potential lol. The pretty maps.
  7. CAPE
  8. CAPE
    Damn 10 degrees warmer there. UHI FTL.
  9. CAPE
    in the woodz tree sweat
  10. CAPE
    24/14
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    Some nice late back end action here with this.
  13. CAPE
    da fuk is with the weenie spam @JakkelWx
  14. CAPE
    hate the first one.
  15. CAPE
    I am not worried. I should be careful with my messing around for risk of inducing unnecessary panic lol. If it underperforms it wont be because of the dews. The antecedent airmass is exactly what you want for an overrunning event.
  16. CAPE
    More importantly, does weather53 approve of the high position?
  17. CAPE
    26/12 My thump better not get eaten by dry air. I am all in on the front end. Back end is lookin
  18. CAPE
    Has the HRRR dried up the front end yet?
  19. CAPE
    I have had a few of their ales but not been there yet. Yea we should meet up.
  20. CAPE
    This is good stuff.
  21. CAPE
    lol ofc.
  22. CAPE
    Not sure the norther trends wont continue at 0z for the fgen banding from the coastal. Probably will. I just hope the waa part can produce a solid event, as I have had all my eggs in that basket from the beginning anyway.
  23. CAPE
    One thing I have learned over the years- when there is this much uncertainty/disparity across guidance this close to the event- go with the under. It is a nearly a 100% hit.
  24. CAPE
    It's not on to something, but it is ON something.
  25. CAPE
    @JakkelWx Did you notice Mount Holly went advisory for here? Not that it matters, but an indication of the uncertainty. Our county is expansive N to S, but we are both very close to Queens Anne's county, which has a WSW, and the forecast snow amounts are the same.
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