CAPE

There was actually a front that moved east earlier- the one that was hanging just to the north and has been the focus for all the heavy rain the past couple days. Winds are more west/sw behind it. Some decent mixing. Storms today look scattered at best, but some of the CAMs do have a few popping before dying off this evening as they move east. Hug the FV3 I guess lol.

Today is somewhat less humid than yesterday. Not as oppressive imo.

Remember all those 'awful' cool days we had in late Spring, and everyone was yearning for summer heat?

Sort of like a heat sink(typically made of aluminum), with the raised rails acting like the fins. In addition to the radiant heat transfer, there is also convection occurring as well.

Aluminum has a high thermal conductivity, and the way the grates are designed allows for more uniform transfer of heat to the top.

There is a 95% chance DC will see an inch of snow this winter. Need confirmation on that from Weather Will though.

You need to show up more often. It was an odd one, but we have seen worse.

It feels great out there. Breezy, and a nice break from the high dews.

Hadley cell expansion (poleward) is more of a gradual process related to increasing temperatures. The specifics are beyond my pay grade as a weather enthusiast.

Mesoscale Discussion 1211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Areas affected...eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091815Z - 092015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few hours with locally damaging wind gusts and small hail possible. DISCUSSION...Surface convergence continues to increase in relation to a developing low pressure trough, with westerly winds across western VA and NC. GPS PWAT sensors indicate a relative maximum around 1.80" over eastern VA, with continued heating further destabilizing the air mass. Shear is weak, but the favorable time of day and steepening low-level lapse rates should foster strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. The increasing westerly flow should push the better moisture eastward with time, ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

Rinse and repeat. Midwest trough and a Bermuda High.

Ended up with 1.5" here. The heaviest rain locally fell from lower southern MD over to southern DE. Widespread 3-4" with some 5"+ amounts. Looks like Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge was the jackpot with close to 6".

Moderate to heavy rain here. No wind, nothing severe. Just a soaker. I guess those HRRR runs were a bit off lol. There is a pretty sharp cutoff between steady rain and showery just to my west. Radar depiction right now looks impressive. Those bands wrapping in towards south Jersey look ominous.

Up to 0.03" here with legit light rain now. Might be bordering on moderate.

Drizzle. Maybe the ground will be damp by midnight.

GFS has 2.5" here, HRRR less than 0.25. Gotta love it.

18z GFS lol. Probs too course. Gotta go with the hi res guidance at this juncture.

Latest run has less than quarter inch here lol. Looking at radar trends, I am not discounting it.

The Hurricane models are not very useful once over land and esp at our latitude imo.

The 18z Iconic is holding steady. It might not always be exactly correct, but it is not subject to wild vacillations run to run like the favored globals. Something to be said for that. Underrated model imo.

And related to that, drinking a DFH WWS Oak aged vanilla edition, while tracking Elsa remnants.

Speaking of which, have not seen any posts from him lately.

All the headlines here- Tropical storm warning, FF Watch, and a Tornado Watch just to my south. It would be comical if I end up with a few showers or some drizzle lol. Grass is already on its way to hell, so a period of moderate rain isn't super exciting anyway.