CAPE

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar.

Could be, but this represents the earliest possibility based on latest guidance. Several runs ago the odds of something interesting for this timeframe seemed remote.

I thought this morning based on the latest ens guidance our first crack at something could be as early as around 10 days away, the 20th or so. The latest GEFS suggests a chance of a wave moving along the boundary around the 22nd with cold pressing SE. A simple path to victory in a pattern evolving as currently advertised.

Imagine what these poor people must go through. Snow starts in late November, and continually accumulates without melting, through the end of February. Like clockwork, every winter. There will be 4 times this amount otg in another month. Actually doesn't bother them at all. I don't think they ever treat the roads- just plow them when there is a heavier snow and just drive on the light accumulation. Let the sun do the rest.

We had a decaying east coast ridge with flat ridging located not far off the coast when the early Jan 22 storm hit. Not much of an issue if we have some legit cold pressing in from the NW. That would tend to keep the thermal boundary suppressed further SE. Difficult to glean such details off of an h5 mean from an extended product.

Not sure if it was posted as I have been a tad busy, but this is yesterday's Euro weeklies into early Feb. Looks good well into the month fwiw.

Weather happens quick. A microcosm of life. If you wanna slow things down and savor it a bit, maybe try a little weed.

^His presence has also allowed Patrick Queen to go from a somewhat underachieving high round pick, to unlocking his true potential and becoming the dominant force the Ravens envisioned. So for those who think that contract is a bit too lucrative, it isn't at all.

Great move. Dude is the real deal. I think this also sends a message to Lamar that they are going to use the exclusive franchise tag on him unless he moves off of the fully guaranteed money demand.

We can all root for what we want, and it changes nothing. These advertised patterns are going to morph into something at least somewhat different anyway, and we will live with whatever we get. I have rooted for the patterns that are historically 'more likely' to produce meaningful snow and even when it ends up close to advertised, lately it mostly just rains here. I can think of one instance since 2016 where a legit -NAO has yielded meaningful snow imy. I'll roll the dice on a pattern that brings the cold, and risk dry or an amped cutter. There are risks for failure regardless, and some amount of timing and luck is always required

I get it but I don't try to extract that level of detail on a course LR mean that we know will change anyway. I was mostly addressing previous posts about the advertised surface temps being 'too warm' and why there are differences wrt that across the guidance in the LR at this point. The current depiction in the NAO domain is certainly better on the EPS. Personally I would like to see some legit cold get involved in the pattern given my location and the outcomes that have occurred here recently with that type of setup.

The EPS has a pretty nice look at h5 here, but not very cold at the surface. The primary difference compared to the GEFS/CMC ens at this point is less amplified EPO ridge and a weaker ridge towards the Kara sea. The TPV over northern Canada remains more poleward and associated with (stretched towards) the stronger vortex towards the Aleutians- this keeps the polar air largely contained. The bridging of those ridges helps displace the TPV more southward on the other guidance. The EPS does get colder air into the US a few days later with a weaker, more consolidated Aleutian vortex and more amplified EPO ridge.

Glad I was super busy yesterday lol. The means continue to advertise a more favorable longwave pattern to be in place beyond month, with an Aleutian low, slightly +PNA, -EPO, -AO. The North Atlantic looks at least serviceable. Realistically our next chance for a trackable threat is 10 days away. The CMC ens has had the coldest look with hints of a southward displaced TPV, and the GEFS is now suggesting that. The period around the 23rd is an interesting look, suggestive of NS waves riding overtop of the ridge/spinning off the TPV, along with energy ejecting eastward from the Baja region.

Looks like it may have drizzled a bit here overnight.

If the advertised h5 pattern is real the direct blast from the Pac firehose will be cut off and temps will cool. EPS has normal to slightly below temps reaching our region beyond the 20th. GEFS has our source region cooling significantly from what it is this week. CMC ens has an even colder look as usual.

Bengals won't be happy when they look at the game film. Their offense will be pissed off and ready to go.

ICON wins.

Ravens might have had a chance if they weren't so generous. Defense has been stout. 4 turnovers tho..

Hundley time?

Ravens are resting players today, mostly on offense, including Huntley and Dobbins. Lots of inactives. I guess they don't want to 'show' the Bengals too much lol. They will probably get a 21 point lead then pull some of their starters.

Once we lose the mechanism for direct transport of Pacific air into our nearby source region, as well as into the Western US, I think we can get back to average temps pretty quickly. It will take a little time to get cold/dry cP air into a position where it can easily influence our weather and get involved when a storm approaches.

That's possible. For now I will stay optimistic. Almost all of the extended guidance indicates some persistence with below average temps by the end of the month and especially into early February. If it ends up another mirage, so be it.

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Dawn with frost/mist on the farm field behind the property.

28 Been awhile.