CAPE

lol. yes we know John.

Whatever gets people to read his blog. Ofc Siberia is anomalously 'warm' with a massive upper ridge in the WPO/EPO space. That feature is key for getting the air from up there to transfer down into the midlatitudes- the incoming anomalous cold. That ridge will be trending weaker over the next week or so, to be replaced by a TPV, so Siberia will actually be getting colder into early Jan. His choice of words plus that specific map implies something different.

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

Yeah it's a progressive look, and with the western ridge shifting east and breaking overtop as advertised it would be tough.

Canadian ens has been pretty consistent with a signal for a modest wave tracking under us around the 27-28th. GEFS has had it too at times over the past few days.

Harbs will dig in. Unless it comes from up top, zero chance anything happens until the offseason.

Had a solid 3" here from that one. Plus the mini whiteout at the end. That was fun and doesn't happen often.

Not many but the GFS loves to advertise it.

Bristow must be high. Laughing at every post.

The Ravens may stumble their way into the playoffs, but they better not need that game against the Bengals the last game of the season. No chance. And good luck against them, the Bills, or the Chiefs in the postseason. Or the Chargers should they get in.

Latest GEFSx gets us to this look moving into the second week of Jan. Based off the 0z GEFS run from yesterday that goes out to Jan 3. Should this progression transpire, mid to late Jan should be colder than normal, coinciding with near peak climo for cold/snow.

The reality is that the pattern will reshuffle some and we will end up with whatever we get lol. Hoping for 'tweaks' of the current pattern is probably just as unlikely to yield better outcomes. Are we suddenly going to get a persistent vortex near the Canadian Maritimes under the NAO ridge instead of heights building there and developing a full lat ridge whenever a trough approaches? That would be a nice adjustment of the current pattern but not sure that's realistic either. Whatever transpires, one thing we will have in our favor going forward is better climo. Lets just hope the Pacific doesn't go to crap in conjunction with the AO going super positive.

No real relax/reshuffle/warm up on the CMC ens. Just reload. More of the same general (Epic ) pattern. Go Canada!

Some adjustments are still possible. The wester you are the better the chances for something frozen at the beginning and maybe again at the end, the way it looks to me. Over here, it's pretty much locked in as a mild rain event with following cold.

Well you know I cant be lol. The 27-28th potential is still there, with the Canadian mean continuing to have the strongest signal. Makes some sense as it really never breaks down the cold pattern, and certainly not as quickly. It seems to have performed pretty well lately, but I don't track model scores.

I know others may disagree, but in a Nina I will take a -EPO/neutral to +PNA to increase chances for cold air delivery, vs. Pacific puke and a beautiful but impotent -NAO.

Actually the EPS look at the end of its run is heading back towards the same general longwave pattern with a PNA ridge and hints of a -EPO. At least for now the Pac seems to remain generally in a non hostile state, which is always the biggest battle in a Nina.

I guess root for the GEPS for those that don't want to see any relaxation. Very brief pattern reshuffle then back to the same general look for early Jan. I am kind of in favor of blowing it up and trying something a little different at this point. GEFS and EPS going more towards that idea.

Not seeing any super anomalous warmth on the means after the mild cutter/cold and dry period(the fruits of our epic pattern!). Looks mild for a time for sure, probably several days in the low to mid 50s, maybe warmer ahead of any potential storm that would probably track well west during that period.

I'm good with it if it's dry. Plenty of outside stuff to do and so much nicer in winter.

Low pressure in that area has been advertised on the means pretty consistently, but in reality it has been transient. Interpretation of LR course means is tricky. There have been suggestions of a true NA block, but hasn't really materialized in a useful way. Even if it had, there are other factors that can mitigate it, especially in a Nina.

200 yds rushing, 3points. Not all his fault, but mostly.

Snow no show in Buffalo

Maybe, but it isn't useful in any way. That run initialized off of 0z, there have been 3 GEFS model cycles since then, and on all of them the 24th is well inside of day 15.