CAPE

Season salvaged for now. Kudos to the defense. Now we have to see how bad Lamar's injury is.

An Oweh sighting!

This season is likely toast, but please, please Stanford, take this turd off our hands lol.

The execution was terrible. I could see it coming. And why even do that? Roman is garbage.

LOL Roman. So awful. Nice punt by Proche I guess.

They aren't good enough to overcome the law of averages. Denver is due as was Jacksonville. Good teams don't give a fuck and they take care of business.

Now Lamar gone. Huntley! Lets go!!!

But we have Roman and his prowess for creativity in the Passing game will be able to trick that great Broncos D!

Stanley inactive and now Mekari is hurt and questionable to return.

My pick for the Ravens game today- Broncos 5, Ravens 3

The ens runs of 5-7 days ago did have that ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK, sending a TPV lobe southward while bridging with the developing -NAO ridge over GL. That progression was in error, but at the time it looked as though we might be set up for at least a modest event in the Dec 8-12 window. Even if that had worked out climo was always going to be an issue.

My sense for the window around the 9th was a shot at something minor- a chance for some to get on the board early with the initial step down to a colder pattern. Despite the usual can kicking on guidance, that chance is actually still there. Not sure about your 70 call though. Maybe 60.

It was so close, and the overall h5 look was about as good as it gets in a Nina. Devil in the details.

The overall look on the EPS- the pattern progression, especially in the PNA/EPO domains, the orientation of the NAO block, pretty much everything-is a little better than the GEFS. Hopefully it ends up being closer to reality. Agreed the pattern needs some time to 'mature'. Probably looking at beyond mid month for any significant frozen potential for the MA lowlands.

Wrt the end of week event.. We have discussed the general setup here for awhile, and while not as cold a period as was suggested 4-5 days ago, there is still potential for a little frozen (for some). A strong HP building over eastern Canada should allow some colder air to push southward ahead of the approaching shortwave. The shortwave/ associated surface low generally looks to track NW into the OV on most guidance, GFS being further NW. At this point it appears redevelopment may occur off the MA coast- more likely if that HP is stronger/stays in place longer. It's a complex setup but one that could produce some frozen at least for a time, further N being favored ofc. That high will be sliding northeastward (quicker on the GFS) and this is right at the beginning stages of a major pattern change with limited cold available, so keep expectations in check lol. Using the Euro(better outcome) for illustrative purposes-

Yeah I get it, but we end up getting what we get regardless lol. As you know we can luck into a good event or two even if the overall pattern is crap. If the NA blocking ends up short lived, maybe we can roll the dice with an EPO ridge, as some of the extended guidance is suggesting heading into Jan. A bit of help(well timed) in the NA can work if we have a mechanism to get the cold here. This is mostly how we roll. Modeled 'perfect' patterns don't materialize or are short lived, and we get our snow in a pattern with warts.

The pattern was never going to just switch. Major pattern changes happen in steps. It is going to take a bit longer than originally modeled, which is pretty common. Better to have the pattern 'mature' in mid to late December or even a bit later when we are moving into more favorable climo for snow. Why waste a nice pattern in a period where it will most likely produce cold rain or slop.

The crazy wave breaking between the Okhotsk/Siberian TPV and the Aleutian ridge is what the guidance missed several days ago. That TPV lobe remains stronger than was previously depicted and ends up digging south and breaking the ridge bridge, thus enhancing the -PNA. Probably related to -EAMT/ NPJ retraction. Compared to the same period several days ago-

0.65" total here. It has been pretty wet lately. Wind picking up now.

Ji should be along soon to declare the 6z GFS run a disaster.

..and we have a new page.

why post one link when you can embed entire threads?

^I knew that was coming at some point.

Thanks Chuck. What a total buzzkill on my buzz.

They so drool worthy tho. Better than reality.