CAPE

This is not a bad setup as advertised leading into the potential 'WB WW Storm' around the 8th as the pattern is in transition. The blob of +heights over the east consolidates over Hudson Bay(a look that used to work for us) as the AK vortex begins to retrograde. In response a ridge pops in the SW, as heights are also building in the EPO domain. As this occurs, a piece of energy is shed off from the western trough as it lifts north, and this wave progresses eastward under the Hudson "Block". There also happens to be an upper low passing through the 50-50 position as the shortwave approaches. Wayyy out there and ofc it won't evolve quite this way, but it does indicate that the pattern could be favorable enough for a trackable event as early as the 8th-12th window. Most likely this would not yet be cold enough verbatim, and would probably track somewhat inland. Not a bad signal on the 12z GEFS for something potentially wintry though. Obv subject to much change at this range, better or worse.

Ravens are saving their secret passing attack for the playoffs.

High of 19. Currently 18.

The ens means in the LR and the extended products indicate the progression to a more favorable pattern will be focused on the Pacific with a +PNA/-EPO look emerging towards the 10th. That's a pretty good way to get some cold back to our nearby source region quickly. It looks like the AO will be around neutral, and the NAO slightly positive to neutral, at least initially. Perhaps later in January and into Feb there will be another -NAO period.

9 here at 6am

Another view, slightly different plot. This is the 500 mb mean, minus the anomaly. You can see the NH longwave pattern. Note the Aleutian ridge and downstream trough (typical Nina), and downstream from that there is a western US ridge(somewhat flat), then the eastern trough and NAO ridge. On these data plots when you select "anomaly", if the h5 heights in a given area are normal, or very slightly anomalously high or low, there is no indication(coloration).

Needs a N to NNW trajectory.

Still a mild 16 here

@leesburg 04 maybe..

lol. rubbed someone the wrong way..

19 here. Still getting some legit wind gusts, but a bit less than a few hours ago. Got a fire going in the stove. Should be able to keep the heat pump from running for the weekend.

Good thing the Bills are on the road tomorrow. Plenty cold, but not an all out historic blizzard. Zero chance they would have played a game at home.

12/23: Arctic frontal flizzard with a solid coating. Didn't measure so I will go with 0.1". On the board!

@WxUSAF

It might be interesting/useful for you to create an h5 anomaly plot for each of those Decembers individually.

It's definitely possible for a little something. I would think the further west the better, with it tending to dry up as it moves east.

Still looks like a tough one with that ridge progressing east and that vort lobe tracking right overtop.

That is a multiple year monthly composite mean at h5 for December. There would have to be some amount of ridging in the Western US (during Dec) for at least parts of some of those years. When presented as a multi-year composite, the height anomalies there are less prominent and get 'washed out'.

So far only some small branches down here and there. No leaves on the trees helps significantly

Yeah the wind is fierce here now. Helping to sublimate my little coating of snow.

That is the typical -NAO dipole look. When there are anomalous +heights over the NA, the heights adjacent to it are anomalously low. The oddity is the ridging that has been occurring underneath lately despite that. It is what you would generally expect if the NAO were significantly positive(lower h5 heights over GL). eta: a super -PNA can certainly overwhelm a weaker/east based -NAO, but typically if the NAO is legit negative, SE ridge is suppressed.

The low visibility for a time was pretty impressive. The pond is covered to keep it from filling with leaves lol.

31 and still coming down but brightening up. First flakes, flizzard, and coating.

Way more impressive than I thought it would be. Too bad the ground is sopping wet and the temps didn't crash quicker.

Pretty legit flizzard here now. Sideways snow. Actually starting to stick a bit.