CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Lets enhance vehicle corrosion for no reason. I doubt our latitude sees more than a dusting.
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Some maps here wrt Nina historical snowfall https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall
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It's not doing the NAM thing. NS is all kicker, no capture.
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Well if it is onto something (and not on something), the better guidance should pick up on it over the next model cycle or 2.
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What the NAM is/has been doing is phasing in the NS energy just a bit more and sooner, which pulls the low a little closer to the coast as it tracks ENE, rather than it completely escaping and tracking eastward further south.
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Not 100 percent. Only because the nest has a similar idea.
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The NAM is telling us something.. put me out to pasture.
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Maybe 0z lol
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Welp
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Seeing late day sun shooting straight through the sidelights on my front door tells my brain Spring is really close.
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NBM is still suggestive of low end warning criteria. NWS likes to use that product when making forecasts.
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We need a Modoki Nino next winter in a big way.
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Just over 12" here for 18-19. That one was frustrating lol. The one storm that was supposed to jack here was a big fail. DC area jacked instead.
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It was 14-15 for me(or 13-14- maybe both lol). I was within an inch in 2022 and the same currently for this winter(19.6). Because the Jan 2016 blizzard was a half storm here(only 15") didn't even get close that winter.
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I'm hoping for an inch or 2. Current forecast here is exactly that btw. That would get me solidly over 20". Got very close in 2022, and fell a few inches short in both 2017 and 18, which were the next best winters in recent years. Last time over 20 was 2015.
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Just need some cold and luck with wave timing. The epic pretty h5 patterns can easily fail because of bad luck. Seen it happen quite a bit in recent winters.
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Well, yeah. They know its a trash model.
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Its amazing that the NWSFO never mention the ICON, let alone factor it in to their forecasts. Makes you wonder. BTW there is a WSW up for OC. Heading down?
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Might be a reasonable chance for something here.
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WSW up for S DE and MD lower ES.
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A mini capture at h5 leads to an inverted trough.
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Some late interaction happening.
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I mean, its a damn TPV lobe sitting in the middle of a significantly cold airmass, stuck underneath a block. I honestly don't get that line of thinking. That's just me tho.
