CAPE

I was just making a general statement. Everyone can use them at their own discretion. Imo, they are most useful when we have a discrete threat within a few days.

Eh, it's yet another example of the craving for instant gratification.

Snow means suck. They are for the lazy. Do the analysis upstairs or watch Bob fucking Turk.

Banter

WDI

This h5 look has KU potential. Surface depiction has LP in the gulf states moving northeastward along the NC coast.

IMBY game lad. Just the way it is, and will always be here. Plenty of disparity across our region since 2016. I traveled an hour to experience 2 great beach snowstorms(one a blizzard), then stayed home in Jan 22 for 3 warning criteria events. Will probably suck here for a few upcoming winters, while your area does better. I will probably have to travel to get snow. How it goes in the MA outside of owning a place in the western highlands. Move, be willing to travel, or accept and enjoy what you get at home.

It's kind of all over the place with the tiny little jackpots moving around from run to run. The GEFS is pretty steadfast that this is a north of here event for frozen, like the other 2 ensembles. This has the feel of maybe some snow tv for our region late Sunday night/Monday morning. I'm cool with that. Better things lie ahead.

Most likely. All 3 ens means at 12z have a strong signal for snow across PA and into SNE. EPS is the most robust now with what the 12z op did, and would get some snow into far N MD.

Similar to the GFS, it would need to come together a little faster and further south for our region. The general setup has looked interesting even at range. Lack of cold air has been the big issue. HP is in a nice spot- important with a marginal airmass. Verbatim the Euro is a paste bomb and it mostly works because of the quickly strengthening low close to the coast. Places that get snow would be rain initially then flip to heavy wet snow with column cooling.

There are some pretty significant differences at h5. Results in a much stronger low closer to the coast on the 12z run. Can't see that stuff on a snow clown map.

A handful of GEFS members have a bit of snow. Not the strongest signal at this juncture.

A bit of additional energy phases in and sharpens the shortwave just as it approaches the coast and it pops a coastal low. CMC has that basic idea too.

Looks a little like last weeks storm at the surface with the low developing offshore and an inverted trough. It would need to come together sooner/ a bit further south. edit- I'm referring to the 29-30th @Eskimo Joementioned above.

It's just an interpretation of the super long range guidance wrt the HL look, and how the progression typically goes before big storm chances enter the picture. Those better looks could develop/mature sooner. How about KU potential mid month and beyond? Better?

For a few runs now the GFS has been indicating strong surface HP building southward from central/eastern Canada with a storm developing along the Gulf coast around Feb 6th. It is depicting an anticyclonic wave break as the amplified upper ridge builds towards Hudson Bay, capturing TPV lobes and sending them southward towards Atlantic Canada, which creates confluence in the area downstream of the ridge/backside of the vortex. That results in strong HP at the surface. We shall see how real that is. GEFS has the look of confluence with the compressed/flattened west-east height lines to our north, and hints of shortwave energy embedded in the southern stream. Biggest issue on the mean for this timeframe is lack of cold air.

Late Feb into early March would be the prime time for something big looking at the h5 evolution on the weeklies/extended products verbatim. Subject to some change ofc.

Based on the currently advertised pattern progression, we could see a significant event in the 10-15th window. HECS potential likely begins around PD imo.

I may have to give ignore a go. Never thought I would, but I have a tendency to read/reply to posts I should just bypass.

Lmao. Same experience here, minus the trail of piss and shit. Great period. Still mostly snow covered ground, day 8. Had a fantastic hike at Tuckahoe on Sunday before the football games.

@Bob Chillwarned me about this a few years ago lol. Losing the fun aspect. Fatiguing. Better things to do. I think I am there dude.

Done.

@osfan24 What's not average? I said average(avg) once. Nothing to do with snowfall. My post was in reference to the finite number of periods where we get a pattern that is supportive of below average temps (with snow chances) in a typical winter for this region, regardless of ENSO state. No mention of Nino, Nina, climo/ any specific amounts of snow, or expectations. And who of us are 'crazy' and for what reason?

I was responding to PSU, who for some odd reason jumped in and replied to my post to go on some tangent related to yours. You still can't read for context. Want me to repost my op and your reply and go over it with you with one word at a time? We can do that in banter if you would like.

Give it a rest dude. Your "point" had nothing to do with what I said in my post. And show me where I said you attacked anyone. You might want to take that one up with PSU.