CAPE

18z GEFS doesn't look bad y'all.

Ooh I get it now- this is the 'total obliteration (of our hopes and dreams) is coming' thread!

Schism. Best Tool song ever imo. Those dudes are good. I used to watch them a lot.

Considering recent Euro runs and the latest GFS run have not exactly been stellar, not bad.

The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid.

You don't think Mason Rudolph will be throwing lasers through the wind and blowing snow in Buffalo?

There is a frontrunner piece of vorticity, then the stronger piece comes in behind. If that digs further south and the coastal low pops off the NC coast instead of DE, we are probably referring to this as a 'dual low structure' instead of a Miller B. We just need a little more dig in general, regardless of whether there is an initial weaker low or not.

Coastal pops east of DE. A bit too far north. Some snow verbatim though.

A bit of a drop off from 12z.

The mean kinda reflects what the op did.

12z GEFS a bit further south/offshore compared to 6z.

Frozen on frozen. Pretty rare. I'll take it.

Updated morning AFD from Mount Holly- A challenging forecast for the long term this morning. Ensemble and deterministic models indicate an upper level low located just east of Hudson Bay Monday will gradually circle over the bay and southwards of it into Wednesday night. While this occurs, an upper level trough axis over the northern central CONUS Monday is forecast to dig southeastwards with time before moving generally eastward thereafter. This trough axis will look to be directly over or near the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night before swinging through the northeastern CONUS perhaps during the time frame of Wednesday. At the surface level, this upper level pattern corresponds to high pressure in control of region Monday followed by coastal low pressure development off of the southeastern coast of the CONUS Monday night into Tuesday. Following development of the coastal low pressure system, the upper level pattern supports the coastal low moving northeastwards with time while strengthening due to increased baroclinic support. High pressure is likely to build in over the eastern CONUS thereafter as indicated by the upper level pattern. Though the coastal low pressure will remain the focus of the long term, it still remains too early to discuss the exact details regarding the development and track of the system. There is a large spread among deterministic guidance on the exact track the coastal low pressure will take, making for a challenging forecast. If the low stays closer to the eastern coast of the CONUS, it means our region could see precipitation Monday night through at least Tuesday night. If the low is further offshore, the region could see no precipitation at all. There is one detail where there is some confidence however. If coastal low pressure is able to bring precipitation to the region during the Monday night into Wednesday time frame, it will likely be in the form of mostly frozen precipitation for the region. The overall synoptic pattern indicates there will plenty of cold air available this time around to wrap into the system, i.e., a snow event may be on the horizon for the region.

It's never just one thing. Subtle differences in the interaction between the AK wave and energy on the west side of the TPV plus PNA ridge orientation/axis is different between the 2 models. Hopefully all this analysis becomes a moot point soon.

The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive. My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope.

LP strengthens some as it moves NE but too far offshore.

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here.

It didn't.

Op runs yes. Ens goes out to 144. Still waiting for 6z ens.

Hard to tell at 90. Really need to see how the shortwave energy coming ashore on the S coast of AK behaves beyond this point. Still wants to dig.

NBM keeps getting better

Let it finish dude lol