CAPE

Ofc Dover radar is down again lol.

With the shift southward it looks like central and even parts of southern DE are going to benefit from the lift associated with the inverted trough this afternoon. Latest GFS has 5" for Dover to 3" for Lewes.

I thought I would be ahead of it on the drive in. Came in hot and heavy. Despite all the salt, roads caved immediately and visibility was low. Snow became notably lighter towards Easton.

Just started snowing here. I'll be off to work in 30 mins. Drive back might be fun. Mount Holly evaluating the model trends. Now have a WSW for DE. This is their 2am update- As we head through the overnight, the latest model guidance has continued a shift south, focusing the inverted trough extending westward from Friday`s coastal low back closer to the Delaware coast rather than southern NJ. Dewpoints have been running slightly lower than forecast, signaling some low-level dry air that will be initially tough to overcome as light snow aloft continues to spread toward our region from the Appalachians during the predawn hours. Still looking at light snow arriving generally between 5 and 7 AM, with it just entering eastern West Virginia and far western Maryland between 1 to 2 AM. Much of the guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on southern NJ into Delaware at it`s peak this afternoon, and linger there longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the inverted trough behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up the difference for a bit less liquid equivalent precipitation along the northern edge of the steadier snow, all these indications suggest that we`ll have to adjust some of our totals downward somewhat north of Philadelphia to Tom`s River or so. Will continue to analyze the data over the next few hours.

Yeah our area is on the southern edge again. NS systems are touchy here. There is a general shift south on latest guidance though. 1-3 for the mid shore seems reasonable.

Qualifies as deep winter around here. Twice as much snow would be better ofc. Forecast for here after the snow tomorrow- Saturday Areas of blowing snow. Increasing clouds, with a high near 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Saturday Night Areas of blowing snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Weenie nature. Always greedy. IMBY thing mostly. Time for an old fashioned.

Not bad, but verbatim I prefer the 12z run.

Natty blend good trend

32 Still full snow cover here in the woods. Last snow on snow was early Jan 2 years ago.

NPAC jet extensions are more prevalent/expected in a Nino, and literally favor a +PNA. So that is NOT in and of itself the 'cause' of the warmth. The AO is neutral, and the NAO is positive. Shift those indices negative with that jet extension and we have a much more favorable/colder h5 pattern for the beginning of Feb. None of this stuff happens in isolation.

Ensembles have something trackable for late next week into the weekend with consolidated energy in the STJ undercutting the western ridge and moving eastward. There is a bit of a 50-50 low leading in but with no NA blocking it will be on the move. Not a bad look at the surface with some indication of HP to the N and a low developing on the NC coast. The big problem is lack of cold at this point.

High of 27 after a low of 13. Currently 20. need more days like this.

Once I get past my busy period at work I am hoping to head out there. That probably coincides with the upcoming advertised milder period unfortunately lol.

I suppose the general consistency across guidance has bolstered their confidence, and there is an increasing signal over the past few runs of the NBM for 2-4"+ from N DE into central NJ.

Mark Andrews was a full participant today. I never imagined he could play in the divisional round, but maybe?

Mount Holly with a WWA for central/northern DE, eastern PA, and most of NJ. 1-3/2-5 deal from south to north. A bit of waxing and waning the last few days, but this is the general outcome guidance has been consistently depicting. 1-2 here is fine with me. Never expected anything more with this synoptic setup. This DFH WWS is stellar.

don't forget the Spire

9z Closer. In the blue here.

Latest blend

PDIII

Might not be exactly what we were expecting, but after maybe a one week milder period, this type of pattern can get us back to normal pretty quick. As is, it looks somewhat like 2015, but there are hints of Scandi ridging retrograding. Latest Euro weeklies depict a longwave pattern progression from that^ to this for mid Feb. Can kick? Maybe. Subjective. I don't see any indication of a shit the blinds pattern going forward. My wag is we see a -NAO episode Feb into March.

NBM has a signal for an inch or so. This has ticked up some over the last few runs. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3 deal.

This storm is what we thought it was. Ens guidance overall has been very consistent depicting late/ mostly offshore low development. Wildcard is the Norlun aspect, which we do so well at our latitude.