CAPE

Probably having some impact. A this point I don't think either are far off from a favorable outcome, albeit somewhat different paths. All part of the fun of tracking.

EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn.

Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though!

Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024

Getting some good gusts now. Tree debris falling on the roof.

Plenty of water lying in the fields here too. Ditches full. Water table broke the surface in my seasonal wetland. Last year that happened late April/early May. And only 0.45" so far for this one. Too much rain over the last 6 weeks.

Most likely path to victory is a phase but the timing has to be just right- around the Mississippi probably. If we get lucky and some lower heights squeeze out into the 50-50 region then there is more wiggle room.

Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z.

I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.

Its cold

All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution.

What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it.

12z GEFS has a indication of low pressure closer to the SE coast for the 20th. Previous runs have been way offshore.

Here is how you save your sanity- don't do this sort of analysis on an op run 10+ days out lol. I know I don't have the energy.

Snippet from NWS Chicago this morning- As has been indicated repeatedly with this system, the marginal thermal profiles with surface temperatures at or above freezing mean that not only are high snowfall rates required, these must remain persistent for several hours for appreciable accumulations and resultant travel and infrastructure impacts. Even with the slight SE wobble, increasing easterly and northeasterly winds off the roughly 40 degree lake suggest temperatures will still crawl their way upwards across NE Illinois today. As a result, continue to suspect that raw model snowfall output (10:1, Kuchera, you name it) is spreading high snowfall areas across a much broader area than will be realized. In fact, it`s likely the snowfall gradient ultimately will be even tighter than we can show in our gridded forecast with any predictability. HRRR/RAP snow depth or variable-density snow depth output is likely a better proxy for impacts, and depicts an incredibly, razor sharp delineation in snow amounts, where snowfall rates are maximized for the longest period.

Looks like its been dumping snow at Frostburg this morning.

Nice thump out in W MD https://www.railey.com/deep-creek-lake-webcams/

Nice to see the forecast rain amounts here are more like 1.5" instead of the 2-3"+ from a couple days ago.

How this storm goes appears to be largely tied to the timing of NS energy and the degree of interaction/phasing. Two of the last 3 GFS runs have a healthy precip shield with moderate snow in the Tenn valley, but a piece of NS vorticity drops down on top and damps the wave, thus we see weaker surface reflection and the precip weakens as it moves eastward. The 2 basic options for a 'good' outcome seem to be- phase the NS energy with the southern wave right around the Mississippi river valley- a lot more dig and more potential, but not too far west where it amplifies too soon and tracks inland; the other option is the southern shortwave slides eastward underneath that NS vorticity ribbon with little to no interaction. A flatter solution but less complicated.

Still 10 days out. The key features exactly as depicted likely are not correct. Plenty of possibilities.

For around the 20th- still a generally favorable h5 look for a significant MA winter storm, but with the vortex in that position in SE Canada the heavier precip is mostly suppressed south/offshore on both the 0z GEFS and EPS. Cold wouldn't be an issue. This would be some light snow over the region verbatim.

EPS is easily the best of the 0z ens suite for that window. Strong signal for a coastal low.

18z GEFS pretty much aligns with the damped wave idea on the op. Less precip as it moves eastward into the MA. Not awful, but defo not the 12z run. Just to reiterate, the 12z GEFS was one of the better runs for the MA for this window. Signal for frozen through our region was quite good for this range.

Chuck..

That's good stuff! Not your typical pilsner. Love the name too.