40/70 Benchmark

Please keep that shit out of these threads.

What I am saying is that we likely would have had more snow even if the NAO block had occurred sooner OR later, and was less prominent as the RNA flex ensued...there would have been less deconstructive interference via the compressed flow. That is the chance element of this. Sure, it would have turned to rain for SNE, but there still would have been more snow than was measured in the shredded turds.

At the precise same time, yes.

It is aggravating hearing the phrase "January thaw' this season lol. Shit never froze-

Wherever there is probability, there is luck, but call it as you wish. More often than not, when you get an NAO block like that, we will not be totally skunked at this latitude.

No, that is a bad pattern. The couple of would be snowers that missed east were bad luck...as well as the timing of the NAO block relative to the RNA flex.

Until the cutter this weekend....lol

I know most won't take any solace in this, but I do fall back on a small two-fold consolation. I know @Typhoon Tipoften refers to the "dopamine drip" effect in that we impulsively crave the fulfillment of our need for snowfall and model cinema due to a psychological dependence. I think periods like this ultimately act to reduce that to a degree...kind of like a snowfall addict's detox in that its initially the rehab is tremendously painful, but you eventually end up better for it and develop a greater proclivity toward delayed gratification. This also recalibrates our perception and replenishes our enjoyment of the larger, more memorable events that may have seemingly become more ordinary in this age of hyperactivity. Secondly, its also a penance of sorts for having overindulged much of the past couple of decades in that we are now settling the score with the regression gods to a degree...I know I have personally for the past several years, and the larger scale region has as well, albeit to a lesser degree than my specific quadrant of the region.

Yea, pretty similar in the snow department, despite the pattern not being as horrendous.

Classic Fraud Five.

The polar domain has been much different than that year....heights IVOF AK haven't been as consistently cratered, either.

Depends how much less....I mean, we were well over 100" that season....I am talking more like 60-80", which would be in no way unlucky.

I think a lot of us are just exhausted by it...I know I am.

I would take that a step further and virtually guarantee a similar look would yield much less snowfall

Exactly. I also hope people realize that I don't try to use "chaos" as an excuse with respect to long range snowfall calls...I get that its the nature of the beast and it is what it is. That is something that I will mention in the hindsight analysis, as it may make the grading more of C than an F if I got the general pattern right. This is why even though I was pretty accurate with the snowfall totals in that 2014-2015 epic run, the forecast wasn't an "A" in my mind because I missed the polar domain....I was right for the wrong reasons. It goes both ways and I mentioned that. I was "lucky" to have pretty much nailed the snowfall totals.

I think LR patterns are somewhat predictable, but I agree with alot of what you are saying. I can also live with your description of luck simply being the elements of variance not within our control...AKA chaos. I just say luck because it's a simpler description.

With respect to snowfall, not the pattern. There is a great deal of luck involved with snowfall, I'm suprised that you can't wrap your mind around that. Kevin, I'm not lol

Yes. Deal with it-

Patterns can be predicted.

Who cares.

I'm sorry, if you are a snow lover living in SNE and turned down a chance to repeat the 2009-2010 pattern for a season, then you are an idiot and should not reproduce. Period. Perfect example of bad luck in a good pattern. This year is an example of bad luck in an already relatively poor pattern. Not awful...however, the sensible result in terms of snowfall has been awful. This was not a Dec 2011 type of deplorable pattern. Unfortunately, it hasn't made much of a difference in terms of snowfall. Yes, it's still been warm, but normally a period of blocking like this will produce. We never had a chance in more hostile months.

Luck is involved in science...its called chaos and is the reason for variance. If there were no luck involved in science, then there would be no variance and similar variable would always lead to a similar outcome. But that isn't the case. This is why it's best to view patterns in a probabilisric sense, as opposed to anticipated outcomes.

I have been saying how great he has been, but I have to agree he is kicking the can a bit here.

Even if the RNA is 1-2SD....its better than the record 3SD that we have had. The hope for the first half of January is that we can cash in on the period when the NAO is relinquishing its grip en route to the thaw.

So isn't death, as least we know that will ultimately verify.