40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Its just about impossible to not have a shitty month in a basin wide mod nina.
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Probably going to be out sometime next week....seeing some issues emerging with my sensible weather composites that is causing me to revisit those. They were working very well all summer and into the early fall, but are shitting the bed as the wavelengths grow. Frustrating on the one hand, but it also clears up some conflict that existed between the sensible weather and ENSO composites. ENSO angle is and has been clear for months. Back into hiberation ballz deep in data.
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April.
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3.66" total RF on the month.
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I know SAI is pretty low...
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Snow Advance Index...its what snowman was commenting on when you responded to him.
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He's nailed the last couple years.
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Well, this event is going to fade somewhat faster than average and I do think it's rather stagnant, as described above.
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Its human nature, though...people display more emotion and have more energy when they witness an appealing result. You don't see the crowd go wild when the visiting team hits a homerun...doesn't mean they are immersed in psychosis or in any sort of denial.
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He and raindance are the only two that I take seriously TBH.
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Not to detract from your overall point, but the SAI is a rather poor example...at least today. Many have reached the point that I have and don't make a huge deal out of it either way.
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Larry Cosgrove.
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I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. It can help with PNA late, I guess.
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Well, mosquito earlier this week in the kitchen, now I just had to fend off a bee forming coming on from the deck. Fisher must love this.
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DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train.
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Well, that should get 'er done.
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I agree. I thought it was soft if he was pissed.
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Not done until late next week.
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Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs.
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This is where the eastward trend in la nina over the past month comes into play....it helps IMO. I don't expect that to change BC those trades are dying, and the western subsurface is warming. Although the eastern zones have certainly peaked...
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I am beginning to grow kind of conflicted because I am not buying all of what my sensible analogs are selling, despite how well they have worked this fall. I think I am going to modify them at certain points of the season by stressing analogs that I feel as though the sensible result will most closely resemble.
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Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter.
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Yes, great post. It will be nothing like last December...let me be clear on that.
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Depends how negative, and also how stretched the PV is and in which direction.....these are the nuances that make ostensibly comparable analogs have relatively drastically different sensible weather impacts. I am still very early on and haven't really looked at the pattern much yet, so keep that in mind.
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This isn't to say a torch...or "sell December"....not what I mean. It can still snow, but I just don't expect an icebox. I think we will need the NAO to help.
