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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Snowfall is qualitatively similar in distribution to 06z, but its quantitatively a couple of inches less across the board.
  2. I agree...I think the next big NAO is later Feb into March....but even just trend it more neutral for January. This is shaping up a lot like January 2011, though...obviously that doesn't have to mean 50" of snow, but you get the idea. As far as December goes, I can live with missed forecasts when they are easily explained.
  3. I actually don't think you're a troll, but I think you do get kicks out of slamming home a take when it doesn't jive with the preference of the masses.
  4. I went with 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as my two primary ENSO analogs due to placement of max anomalies, but the mistake I made was not adhering more closely to 2010-2011 due to how well coupled this la nina is, as opposed to last year's no-show ordeal. I needed to incorporate strength more. Big oversight on my part in November...that would have alleviated the main flaw in my forecast, which was reversing the PNA from December to January. As far as the warm December goes, the record RNA was just so massive and that is extremely difficult to foresee. I'm happy with how I have handled the polar domain, though I think the lower AK heights also persisted a bit longer into December than I had envisioned, which further augmented the warmth that I missed.
  5. I get lazy with the long range......once the outlook is out, I have tunnel vision on the medium range..I'll do like one pattern post per month.
  6. Actually triple phase potential there. I know what my weekend blog will be about.....
  7. Yea, that sounds reasonable. Hopefully more clarity for tomorrow when I write up the final call. There is a method to my madness with respect to when I do these write ups because I am often an emotional basket case in between
  8. Its just funny that I got bum-rushed yesterday for being "stubborn and arrogant", and now I'm getting push back in the other direction
  9. I think its also important not to become extremely biased against people because then it becomes a pot-kettle-black deal with respect to trolling.
  10. Well, I am very nervous about at this point. I said all along 12z Wednesday was a pretty big deadline, so I'm not sure why people feel like I am losing my mind. Hopefully it will trend back enough, but I feel like that idea is in peril at this point.
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