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Will do, I am expecting to be in KS by Sunday and then who knows how it evolves from there.

Sky's lightened some... looks like dim sun is cleaving through the easterly anomaly across southern NH just to my N. Probably that opens up as the initiation of this thing breaking down. It'll take the day down near the Pike and S.. but maybe some improvements along Rt 2 and N during the afternoon

Winds gusting to 39 at ISP last night, still gusting to 37. This is just awful. Sheet drizzle continues

Another issue with Chester County is that it’s pretty small and new stations don’t come online to replace the older retiring ones. There are many reporting gaps especially with the COOP stations. I noticed that Phoenixville hasn’t been reporting as reliably over recent years as it did in the past. It’s one of the warmer spots in the county. When they were reporting more regularly from 2005 to 2015 they actually had more 90° days than the Philadelphia International Airport. Data for January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NORRISTOWN COOP 419 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 407 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 407 YORK 3 SSW PUMP STN COOP 376 PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 342 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 332 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 321 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 321 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 303

Wrong Temp wise whatever. But the constant rain is miserable (ya know...for those of us that have lives that want to be outside)

Gotta start getting some hot and humid weather to burn out the weenies

Looks like relative to CXY, those values are warmer through 2016 and then recent years are the same or slightly less, which would have the effect of decreasing the trend over that period. Either way, the bigger concern is NOAA indicates Harrisburg saw a 58.1F annual mean temperature last year. That's warmer than the historical annual mean temperature of Richmond, Virginia, and within a couple of degrees of places like Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina.

This is why we're always playing catch up unfortunately. With all that being said, did the models correctly forecast all these marine heatwaves? I know sea level rise seems to be exceeding their expectations so far.

Yeah, this is essentially one big science experiment that is being run on the climate with many of the finer details not being known until after they happen.

they warmed each and every year.....correct?

Eventually this has to change but we all know what a closed upper level low south of us means. Yesterday on the GFS for 7 straight days it had easterly winds of some kind. Maybe we can get low 70s with that when we can get the sun to come out, definitely no heat. And anywhere near a barrier beach maybe you can get mid 60s. Hopefully that map is wrong. Big patch of cold SSTs east of us now with this endless cool/easterly wind pattern.

This is an amazing exchange to behold

How does moving the station around to a cooler location and "threading" them together amplify warming?

Keep us posted (pun intended)

Looks like the trick was indeed to clearly amplify the warming....I will run CXY also great stuff!!

Yes, plus some seasons warming much faster than others, like winter warming far exceeding spring warming for us. I remember some of the predictions from about 10 years ago-- one of the most glaring ones was the prediction that Hartford's climate would become like what Atlanta was at the time by 2045 and also an average 3x 100 degree days every year for NYC. I guess it could still happen since we are 20 years away from 2045.

Looks like those are based primarily off CXY, which makes sense since it used to be the official station in Harrisburg. MDT is about a degree or so cooler. It's a trick NOAA does to hide the warming. Repeatedly switch the "official" station to ever cooler locations to mask some of the warming trend. From a downtown windowsill to a downtown rooftop to an urban airport on the outskirts of town and then to a much larger airport in a rural-suburban area either surrounded by water or at a higher elevation, and then thread them all together! Also to hide even more warming switch the data source from a warmer LiG thermometer housed in CRS to an automated weather station (MMTS/ASOS). And then have trolls complain about any adjustments that are made.

Do you have a link that shows the volcano eruption was a cumulative VEI 5? I’ve been waiting to read more about it but can’t find anything.

The global climate models are just general tools which show a range of global temperatures for varying amounts of Co2 emissions. They are not regional climate models. That’s why so many of the changes we have been seeing weren’t forecast. Such as the WPAC warming faster than the EPAC leading to a La Niña background pattern and more MJO 4-7 phases. Details about the NAO becoming more positive during the winter and negative in spring and summer weren’t forecast either. Plus the highs to the east of New England with more onshore flow during the summer and record SE ridge most of the year came as a surprise to us. The weather patterns have been changing faster than our computer modeling have been able to keep up with .

Yes. Very nice for the new evergreens and shrubs in the front beds too… We’ll fight stein when its time but please no summer precip like 2023.

Oh no way. I grew up meteorologically in the 1990s, when the models were amazing compared to the 1980s... By present era standards? the 1990s are neolithic. We were taught in advancing dynamics ....back when the dinosaurs roamed ... that there is a 'predictive horizon' to this modeling tech. It's basically just where the statistical results fall below significance to the purpose. It was, at the time... still beyond the technology of the 1990s, which really couldn't see very well enough to matter beyond 5 or 6 days ( although there were rare times when extraordinary events would show up at D10 and stick ). By today's standards, that horizon has been pushed out D8 or 9 ('m not sure what these horizon values are in use-case; I'm just using these numbers as examples). These D8 .. 9 are somewhat more reliability when combining huge advancements of computing speeds, increased input data density, with other key metrics - to mention also experience. You can increase the odds of success in that range by some 20 or 30% - where in 1995 D7 had 5% ... now has a 25% ..etc There is however a kind of 'absolute predictive horizon,' a temporal boundary whence the inevitable collection of random permutations aggregates too much reciprocating influence, and the system's coherency gets irrecoverably effected. It's an unintended consequence of all complex systems in nature - systems are ultimately not allowed by nature to remain in stasis. There is always drift - just a matter of how much so, and when... I mean, where do we think cancer comes from ? You know, it's an arresting momentum to be informed by ones doctor, 'Did you know that all human males WILL end up with prostate cancer, period. It's just a matter of whether they out live the inevitability.' This is really true for all cancers - more generic to say ... true for all complex systems to flounder. In the context of cancer, genetic mutation from billions of RNA sequencing and re-combinatory mechanics. It's a matter of time. Chaos as a product of time and opportunity cannot be avoided. In weather modeling, it's two process of spontaneous emergence: the models have to deal with their own, yet the atmosphere they model is also emergent. Those emergence' are mutually exclusive. That widens the gap further. Ultimately it doesn't matter how dense the input grid and the speed that is available in order to crunch all that data - emergence of randomness in time is a factor that will always corrupt an outlook. We're probably still not quite there even in 2024. But we are more than a hair better than we were in 1994. We ultimately can't sample every quantum state of every quantum point, simultaneously, with exacting precision - that is intrinsically impossible, as Heisenberg ..et al showed us both mathematically, and empirically that is demonstrated to be the case. You know, the more precise the measurement, you start gaining uncertainty - it's not altogether very intuitive for most. But really, all of nature and reality itself is a result of probabilities. Imagine where we'll be when AI ( and there's a new coining expression called Super AI - think next gen(s) ) is sistered to practicum quantum computing cores? I think the absolute horizon is "probably" found there.

Not bad, but 2012 saw a much warmer spring in most locations. Data below are for the period 3/1 to 5/15. Second warmest in most places in the southern parts of the subforum [1977 was warmer at ORD & DSM], but not as warm in the north. Only 12th mildest at MSP. MKE ORD DSM DTW TOL IND CMH CLE MSP

You are indeed correct just like in Chester County the NCEI has in fact at least for every single year since 2000 adjusted the temperature for Harrisburg above what has been reported at MDT (see below) Do you know what if any other stations are included in the NCEI Harrisburg data?

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast