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Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 17-20

Thursday I will have been 75 or under for a high 4 straight days. Yesterday it didn't get out of the 60s. Hard to believe it won't be cold enough to snow in the Winter unless we stumble into a really bad upper latitude pattern. The cold next week (more days with highs in the 70s) is largely -EPO driven. Aug -EPO is actually a colder-Earth pattern, when you roll it forward into Jan-Feb the correlations are pretty high on the below average side generally I was stressing the cold H5 over Greenland May-July. It's moderated now, but has been proceeded with some cooler indicator conditions. Last year there was cold H5 over Greenland May-Sept, this moderated in the Fall.. this year it's the same thing but maybe 1 month early on the moderation. Give me cold H5 earlier in the year, I don't care if it's +NAO (unless it's the Winter).

A nice soaking rain. I prefer dry but this will help the farmers and foliage.

Delayed report but we ended up with just under 4” of rain in 24 hours on Monday into Tuesday. Four separate thunderstorms made for a fun day.

Same here. Pretty good evidence tonight that if there is going to be very heavy rain, it will likely be to the south. Most of the 0z models give our area a quarter to half inch. I'd be very happy to get a half inch. I see the HRRR backed off on the insane amounts, but it still does show some isolated 5 to 6 inch amounts so the south.

I like that but a few rain events mixed in would be great to keep the dust clouds at bay and the trees from getting too droopy. It’s been a rough stretch these last few weeks in the water department.

Hello, Long-time member, rare poster except obs and such. Voracious reader of all of your expertise, however! I must say in this thread: Hurricane Erin has the making of an epic wave-producer for all my New England brothers and sisters who will hit it as it pulls away. National Weather Service Coastal Marine Forecast below (posted as plain text so hope it doesn't run off the screen to the right). -- Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island- 1004 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... . THU...NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, building to 10 to 13 ft in the afternoon. Wave Detail: E 8 ft at 7 seconds and S 7 ft at 15 seconds, becoming S 9 ft at 17 seconds and E 8 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. . THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft, building to 13 to 18 ft after midnight. Wave Detail: S 12 ft at 17 seconds and E 10 ft at 7 seconds, becoming S 14 ft at 17 seconds and E 10 ft at 8 seconds. . FRI...NE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft, subsiding to 11 to 15 ft in the afternoon. Wave Detail: S 13 ft at 17 seconds and NE 10 ft at 8 seconds, becoming SE 10 ft at 14 seconds and NE 9 ft at 9 seconds. -- NHC track: Very reminiscent of Erin on 9/11, when I was out three different time around Narragansett, Rhode Island area. I'll miss this one. I am visiting family and friends in Boston for my birthday til Thursday, then back to Brattleboro, Vermont. Argh. Seriously, if you are not extremely skilled, do not try to play the hero. You'll most likely drown. Oh yeah, very nice seasonable weather of late, finally, in Brattleboro! I do full-time landscaping, and the 100 heat indexes and 90-plus and very humid for like six weeks kinda hurt.

Today’s Euro Weeklies have the 3rd week in Sept (9/15-21) for the first time and it is as Barry’s image above shows near the 2005-24 ACE avg. Regarding progged ACE in Sept from today’s run: after a well BN 1st week and a moderately BN week 2, week 3 (near normal) is significantly more active and actually has the most ACE of any of the 4 weeks by a good margin starting with the final week of August. This is giving me flashbacks to 2024 as this is at least hinting at a Sept resembling last Sept, which had a much more active 2nd half than first half. I’m guessing that this prog of relative quiet in week 1 transitioning to normal active in week 3 is MJO related. Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts: 8/25-31: 9-10 9/1-7: 5-6 9/8-14: 8-10 9/15-21: 13-15

Stop right there and vet your sources.

11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 Location: 27.7°N 73.0°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 100 mph

The eye is at 73W and just under 28N That seems kinda west of the last 2 eye passes from plane no?

Hopefully a summery and dry September into October. It's the busiest months of the year around these parts for various events.

Couldn’t even break 70 today. Let’s skip ahead to Christmas morning, enough of this chilly bullcrap.

moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low by 96 h.

Erin has become a little better organized during the past several hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form. After 72 h, the there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been shifted to the north.

89’d today, maybe the last wave of 70 dews for the year.

We need my fantasy week of no snow cover and high temperatures in the single digits.

I went down to Falmouth the next day. Upper Cape / Buzzards Bay got tuned up!

High today was 70. from 65 low.

Still some strong winds aloft, but the need to rebuild convection and the expanding wind field has taken a toll on maximum surface winds

There were calls for 6-12", won't necro-bump but they were around

18z euro a little north.

Wasn’t expecting more than drops here so no…not invested

That would be great but as always this summer I'll believe it when I see it. Could easily focus way inland/north. Have to watch it evolve.