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12z GFS

Hoping we miss the severe weather today after the wild storm on Tuesday. Not looking super good though, with the temperature up to 80F already.

I used to be like that. Now I embrace the heat and dews. I wouldn't mind some of those high 90s/low 60s dew days though. Been tough to get one of those last several years.

That's a stein look here, relatively speaking. Just caught myself doing it..stein has really become an overused term. Still wet here, but much more to the west.

I'll say though, I think I had a bit of a different mindset on this then I did yesterday. Based on the synoptic look, I am not sure if the placement or even strength of the ULL will matter all too much in terms of sensible weather. We are going to see a flow off the water with sufficient lift so I think it will be wet, just a matter of whether its widespread inches of rain or something less. This is where strength/placement will have the biggest say.

I'd like some free water for the plants but whoever put up the drywall to our west did a heckuva job.

Another glorious day! Can't beat sunny and 75 at noon I do hope we get some extended rains early next week though -- I'll take the dreariness to get some water in the ground

ya it could still move around a bit.. not locking anything in

Who’s ready for days and days of cut-off low misery?

PWAT anomalies +2-3 SD...Monday/Tuesday we may need a boat. We'll see if this signal remains through tomorrow nights runs

most of that falls by late Tuesday night

Stein

going to need a boat if the 12z Icon is right

Ill take it all year.. the only time the heat is good is at the beach

Recorded 0.12" yesterday to bring my April total to 3.13" Highest temp 84f; lowest 28

Just a sick and deranged individual in regards to that . Cannot fathom wishing for chill and rain in summer. You get enough of it in winter

it keeps the big heat away a little longer.. this thing can sit and spin for a month for all I care.. it wont rain all the time but temps will be kept down

Maybe. Maybe not. Why are you so invested in this and rain? It’s summer

Yea that would be less than idea.

even if the heaviest is west you'll still get 1 to 2 by Wednesday.. Stein dead

up to 0.79" this morning with more showers throughout the next 2 days.

12z NAM seems to back up the 00z globals in showing more to the west of 95 (through 00z monday)

Does anyone think the severe risk will shift a little east later today?

Not really a forecast per se but I haven't forgotten this post. Three wasn't a whole lot of model consensus at the time but everything has come around to it over the past several days.

The whole thing is way west. You can see the setup. Rain sets up ENY into S VT. Classic look while east Steins