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Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the Euro ensemble is much quieter:

it's been forever since I talked about lawncare. I get that, didn't know or forgot was called lawn dormancy tbh I do realize that most lawns don't "die" so it makes sense.

Was being a taxi for the younger Ms J for her dog walking jobs. Got caught in that blob back about 20 min ago on the NW side of Frederick. Military Rd. right along Ft. Detrick was a pond. Got her back to her day sit and then looked at 15 and decided it was not worth it so took surface roads back home.

Not according to Ernesto, Gonzalo and Humberto

It is so difficult to get a direct hit on Bermuda. Tiny dot in a big ocean. But everything there is so low lying, even a near miss will cause problems.

Aight never mind it’s Fernand and Gabrielle now with wave 2 coming first or what because 98L took an L I gotta Check back

I can't tell if Erin is trying to pop an eye, or if it is the dry air being entrained in.

Haha, just noticed the valid time is all.

Any extrapolations?

you said "it wouldn't take much" It would take a lot for that - that should be a clue to the extreme unlikeliness without even touching theory.

not a "close call" or scrape on any operational model, nevermind a direct hit. Inside D7

Yeah you guys have had one tough summer. I have a friend in Cape Breton and she says it's been awful.

DO NOT LOOK. GFS OP has formable Fernand. Well within believable range. Maybe get lucky in the tracking of having a storm on the grid till the end of October. Likely not given the phase of the MJO.

Unless I'm seeing things, Erin appears like she's trying to pop an eye.

Oh would you like 2:00 p.m.? Still not '90s. Or even close...

dropped to -5% chance

At present it looks like the track for Erin has ticked west enough to cause the least amount of impacts to land. Bermuda, while not out of the woods, seems to avoid the core on most modeling now as it splits the island and obx

It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.

Similarly here. Snagged a pop up shower. Didn’t get cored, but enough to water the gardens.

Same..6 day heatwave 91/70/94 We will get Sunday but tomorrow will be close

What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo

Today is my baby's gender reveal to see if my wife will be having a boy or girl.

Ask Scooter . He posted it yesterday

Yeah, no change in winds, but the minimum SLP did drop 3 mb to 993 mb.

The problem with that analysis/method is that it doesn't consider alternate pathways that may also be capable of forcing thermal distribution. It only assesses observations in support of his idea.