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Quote from another forum Members 1.6k Weather Preferences:Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in Posted 5 minutes ago Way too far out right now but the GFS has a Hurricane Fernand making multiple landfalls across the Caribbean/Florida in around a weeks time with potential major hurricane status. Atmospheric conditions here would be much more favourable for a US landfall than with Erin, still very far out and models still iffy on formation but one to watch closely.

Yeah, went from foggy and zero wind at 6am to blasting north wind (gusts 60+) by noon under deep blue skies. One of the more incredible weather days we have seen in our life times. I remember walking up the beach into sand blasting gusts and having to hold on to my board for dear life.

MH POSSIBLE?

Yes.. lots of 60+ gusts that no one saw coming even up to day before

At best the outer banks could see TS winds. Not impossible given its size too and westward lean.

has anyone else noticed a lot of yellow leaves? i cant tell if im tripping but i feel like im seeing a decent amount of yellow leaves for august. mainly between white plains and armonk, but can someone at least talk me off the ledge... summer can't be over yet

Could it be Blackbeard's revenge? Every time I hear about Ocracoke, that's all I think about.

Yes. I have no idea.

I KNEW IT ERIN SHOULD HAVE GONE TO SPECSAVERS ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.0°N 64.6°W Moving: W at 15 mph Min pressure: 934 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

I remember it too-was not well forecast but we had 50-65mph gusts under clear skies-interacting with a high pressure off to the west if I remember correctly-alot of tree limbs down..

Kind of thankful to get a chance to do it again because I'm not exaggerating when I say my backyard got split by probably less than a couple kilometers both east and west.

Do you think the blob will form + probable peak intensity?

I’m glad someone else remembers that ! Everytime I bring it up people say it never happened. Not that it’ll happen with this.. but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Notable changes for our coastal folks on the 18z GFS and ICON. Both nudge west and the GFS puts a steady easterly flow on the beaches. Would be rip current city.

Good thing they built that new bridge in salvo.

12Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26 1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31 0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31 1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36 0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35 1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

new bread made:

Felix 1995

This is the one has my attention. Early indications are mixed about ridging over the Atlantic in time but it is starting at a lower latitude than Erin and very likely will impact the islands more directly than Erin

It was gustav September 11th 2002. I remember it so well because it produced the most epic barrels on Long Island I have ever seen. Until the winds went nuclear North at 50mph and blew the swell down.

Would be nice if not ALL the heavy rain misses to my SW.

Going back to June 1 around 5.4”. Not terrible, but 3.7” was from prior to July 10 or so.

what a fit bird