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Don’t really know since it has become such a persistent feature since the 2018-2019 winter.

I mean, this is the sacred and rare clipper, seem like it's been since the early 2000s that I remember a no muss no fuss clipper.

Yep good point, strong winds break apart the flakes which causes poor ratios.

I'm halfway ready to pop an obs. thread for tomorrow. I'll play it safe and wait until around 7PM and see how things look.

Bring me some snow, Holston.

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.

Sure enough, streamers been going right over that area. Multiple periods of whiteout on my buddy's cam. Awesome stuff.

When do you think this fast Pacific flow pattern will ease up a bit? Back in the 2010s, there used to be bowling balls traversing the US when there was this much cold air. Now; we’re stuck with clippers. Only have had to shovel snow a handful of times since 2020.

If you take the 15z RAP verbatim,, I call 1-2" tomorrow for Kingsport, Bristol, and JC. Heading to Boone in the AM, so hopefully I get in on the action too!

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days.

There’s a few here that are focused on qpf amounts. This thing is a big fluff bomb .

brutal torch - dry fopa - cad combo there hard pass

We saw this EXACT thing happen already in this short winter. I referenced my erroneous Nov 21st post yesterday(which caused some confusion). Let's see if the Euro stays with that solution. But the 12z Euro is a great example of what happens when things don't stall or feedback over the Pac NW. I have little doubt the GFS is having trouble in that region, but I don't remember it having feedback issues w/ troughs there. It does have some issues with building up cold air masses in the Canadian Rockies front range and then not kicking it out. But w/ the comparison I had above w/ the snowfall amounts vs AIFS, the GFS is an outlier at this time. Now, it can snow out there big time, but it really is out on a limb. When the trough doesn't stall there, it "should" kick out which it did on the Euro. The bad thing about that possible error is that it absolutely wrecks LR ext (weeklies) until it gets fixed. And if we are looking at 1055 HPs coming out of Canada, that would explain the models bouncing around.

I’ve noticed the rgem was teasing my area a lot the last few runs. The euro to some degree as well

This storm is still so far away. I'd feel better if it was Sunday morning. lol. Hoping it trends higher. Remarkable hold for the last few runs.

Never will happen. RA+ and 50s ate 5" snow in a flash, would've melted 15" if we'd had that much. Greatest positive departure for any day here, 1° more than 3/22/12.

Even the Euro which is meh has us saturated from 550mb to 850mb all between -10c and -20c. Could be some big time fluff somewhere with this thing.

This looks like it could actually thread the needle. Kicker coming into BC probably will prevent the low from riding too far north. The weak ridge to our east will work against a complete suppression to the south. So a 2” scenario like the 12z Euro has in NYC would be a decent outcome for such a fast Pacific flow pattern. Perhaps there is a 1” downside -upside risk for a 1-3” event in NYC.

12z RGEM pops a little band of moderate snow as far south as Morristown around sunrise tomorrow.

I remember many winters when I was a kid in the 60s and 70S that had snow by Christmas, also I remember a lot didn't. It's less than 50-50 in Southern New England.

Most of us are.. at least pike south and probably north

Christmas torch still holding strong on the 12z Euro, only for the cold to return just after Christmas

That was associated with a strong mid level low iirc, but yes the mechanism for strong lift was there over a relatively localized area. This wont be near the magnitude and even smaller in scale it appears.

And NJ till I moved up here when I was 7

I will be interested to see if CPC updates their official plot. I honestly don't know if they derive their own plot or get it from ABM. I haven't ever thought about it. Thank you for clarification on that.