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  2. TriPol
    I wonder what the animals thought of yesterday's heavy rain.
  3. stormy
    You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.
  4. weatherwiz
    Will be some nasty storms around Sunday if we can destabilize enough
  5. donsutherland1
    In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM.
  7. Prismshine Productions
    Nascar at Loudon. Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally.
  9. tamarack
    GYX discussions seemed promising for the weekend but as is often the case, the forecast is "less than a tenth of an inch possible" (which usually verifies). Sandy River is down to 77 cfs, well below the 25% level. Median is 157.
  10. SchaumburgStormer
    Narrator voice. It was not, in fact, his moment as the storm drifted just NE dropping .01” of rain
  11. CAPE
    Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'?
  12. vortex95
    The warm front "connection" again! But this time it should bodily move N and not hang out along the S Coast.
  13. Yardstickgozinya
    Somehow, I miss reading this post before I just did my last round of posting. I thought maybe there were still some doubts. I did notice that the article just mentioned confirmation atEastern York High school. Obviously Colombia will be a confirmation too.
  14. CAPE
    As in that this team could actually contend this year? Fuck no. But the reality is at least one awful team is going to make the playoffs, which is complete crap, and one issue MLB faces right now. Stop being the NBA(making the long regular season largely meaningless), and figure out how to come up with a cap/floor to achieve some semblance of competitive balance.
  15. CoastalWx
    Yes, Saturday night will probably have an area of heavy rain as there actually looks to be forcing on the warm front and decent dynamics. But it may not all be widespread either.
  16. SchaumburgStormer
    Broad rotation, but nothing too exciting right now. Constant low rumble of thunder though
  17. yoda
    Arsenal pretty much toying with Coventry
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Did any of you legit get drawn back in? I for one did not--I put the nail in playoffs hopes this year after the Toronto series in June...compounded by subsequent near .500 mark failures afterward, lol I just enjoyed the Rays series in the moment knowing it wasn't gonna last! But all this crap and the bad luck will only be worth it if it compel Rubinstein to finally show Elias the door. We'll Ruby ya you're embarrassed? Please act accordingly! Ain't gonna get any better until you do!
  19. MJO812
    You and others said that years ago. That failed.
  20. Yardstickgozinya
    My 21 year old son, and his 19 year old girlfriend just got a trailer in East prospect York not long ago. Yesterday he sent me a video of what he thought was just a bad storm. You can clearly see debris falling straight out the sky with the sound of a low jet engine in the background. He had no idea what he was witnessing. It's finally hitting home today how lucky he was. I told him when he moved down there , thst storms don't split that area like they do up here in Northern York County.
  21. vortex95
    No MCS "robbing" things this thing given the SW flow for Sunday @CoastalWx take note. But he will still find something wrong! Svr risk looks interesting Sun b/c strong SW flow this time of year is not as detrimental from the marine infection due to warmer SSTs. Very strong 250 jet over the region (100 kt +). The flared appearance of the storms on the HRRR S of LI is promising.
  22. SchaumburgStormer
    This is my moment.
  23. stormy
    Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather"
  24. Ji
    i guess i became a softball dad along the way. So rain events on weekends are kinda important now lol
  25. SchaumburgStormer
    Cruising just north of me right now, watching to see if that rotation tightens up.
  26. A-L-E-K
    @SchaumburgStormer
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