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Needless to say but all models did not do well with this system.

No model is ever good here at cold chasing precip…it’s probably our most miserable type of setup.

Radar says it's snowing here, but the dry air is eating away, and no flakes have reached the ground yet. Hit -3 earlier this morning.

Fv3 6z to 12z was much improved so I wouldn’t tie that directly to gfs.

Alright @psuhoffman weenie model or no...THIS is an example of what should be able to happen, right? And even the NAM...low got deeper, solution got colder...

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

WB 12Z RRFS. Looks like a move of the low center 25-50 miles west is still possible.

There’s a better chance that Vince Carter wins the dunk contest this weekend.

Yeah maybe, but if it happened I wouldn’t be surprised.

It's near perfect with warm air, that's for sure.

RGEM is a no, so CMC will be a no... prob same with the FV3 and the GFS. But the random hires models like it. Surely we can't lose

Need it to also be good at qpf in this case…

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right?

We pray with childlike faith.

lol It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air'

The thaw officially starts today.

We’d all welcome and accept with open arms. Something tells me the final chapter on this one isn’t written yet. That said, the euro will probably do what it’s been good at recently…lead us all down a dark alley then leave us for dead

Hopefully someday I take my kids there and rent a snowmobile for a snowcation.

In weenie fashion, what I’m taking from the “ass” models - SREF, RRFS, etc. is that they made huge moves from 6z to 12z, much like the 3k Nam did and even the 12k to some extent. At least lends credence to that crack rock the gfs has been smokin on since last night.

Would be funny if things start trending toward that nice run of the Euro earlier this past week

So what time is the rain supposed to start tomorrow?

So question is whether this is a blip, new trend, or final solution????

Reggie has some snow from the N stream across SNE

Anything that screws PSU up to Hanover is the most likely this year.