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There are definitely issues with maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. CFS some of the worst among them. Ofc that won't affect its near term weekly forecasts, but it absolutely does have an effect later on. Sliding through the 3.4 measurement window wasn't on the menu of plausible events before this year, but here we are.

35 this morning.

21.6F was the low, 21.9F currently, Cold morning outside this morning.

Finally hit freezing for first time. 31.8°

Yup…a frosty autumn for the vast majority of us. At some point DIT will get to participate.

43 upon house departure. MDT looking lively from the train this morning. Carry on.

It's starting to look drier next week. The trend is our friend for us business owners that operate outdoors. We're having a strong finish to a fantastic season. I'm looking forward to some rest, peace, and snow on Tug Hill this winter. How about that polar vortex disruption in the forecast? Wow

28F. Heavy frost abounds. Oaks now crying for mama.

My guess is that all these stratospheric disruptions in recent years are linked to the Kara-Barents Seas warming and loss of sea ice there. Many recent studies how focused on this region. Notice how in most of the recent summers the Pacific side has done better than the Atlantic side. While the Pacific side enjoyed the coldest start to summer in a while this year, there was record breaking warmth with low sea ice on Barents and Kara areas. So we have had quite a run of SSWs and weakened vortices since 2020. The successful SSWs and weaker PV for winter weather fans were in January 2021 and November 2025. These events were able to get the Pacific to back off. Even though it took nearly three months following the November 2025 weak PV in late February for our first KU in four years to finally click. Fast forward to the disruption of the PV in February 2023 and we saw the disappointing result of what such an overpowering Pacific leading to the Baja trough that winter could do. Next up were the twin SSWs in January 2024 and March 2024 during our last weaker super El Niño. But we saw quick snap backs of the PV following those events with the very hostile Pacific continuing. Now this early PV disruption is forecast to have a quick rebound. So it’s quite possible that we see another weakening sometime from January to March. But with such an extreme east based El Niño, it’s an open question how much success it will result in. Since it could very well follow the 2024 quick rebound script. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex How Barents Sea Ice Affects the Stratosphere Heat and Moisture Flux: When sea ice retreats in the Barents-Kara Seas, open water exposes the relatively warm ocean to the atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This releases extra heat and moisture. [1] Planetary Wave Enhancement: The added heat creates local thermal anomalies that alter lower-atmosphere pressure patterns. This change enhances upward-propagating planetary waves (Rossby waves) from the troposphere into the stratosphere. [1, 2] Vortex Disruption: When these energetic waves break in the stratosphere, they deposit momentum and heat, weakening or distorting the high-altitude circumpolar winds known as the stratospheric polar vortex. In extreme cases, this triggers an SSW, where stratospheric temperatures jump tens of degrees in just a few days. [1, 2, 3] https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67133 Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur in the Arctic around six times per decade. During winter 2023/2024, two major SSWs occurred – a relatively rare event, having occurred on average only once per decade. Here, we summarise the evolution of the two SSWs, their dynamics and impacts on stratospheric chemical processing and tropospheric weather patterns. While both SSWs were displacement events, they evolved remarkably differently. The 16 January SSW was short‐lived and did not exert a canonical influence on surface weather. In contrast, the 4 March SSW followed a more typical evolution, albeit with only weak coupling to the troposphere.

ORH and we grow on

29.3°, not one of the coldest but still chilly.

35 but 30 a few feet lower. The fakeness continues.

Also, what will never happen right there.

Temp down to 31F this am

As of the overnight 00z runs. EPS with 98% of it's members with reversals. GEFS with 68% so both holding fairly steady from 12z yesterday.