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I think those 3-6 inch rainfall amounts are somewhat overdone, 1-2 inches are more likely. That's what we need, heavier rainfall would just cause flooding and not help drought concerns.

I don’t think any tropical cyclone will make landfall. Some moisture could be tapped, allowing for an enhancement of rainfall.

Yeah it does not look like it's going to strengthen much in the near term.

But that tropical system will probably remain offshore and the front will just funnel the moisture up here without any of the high winds?

maybe some photogenic low topped stuff later?

Frontal passage possibly slowed by blocking, allowing for greater precipitation. There are some hints of a tropical moisture connection. Details remain to be resolved.

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) I would much rather see the eclipse 1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) How much rain did this storm drop here? I don't remember it at all Tony.

it's close to 70 here now

where exactly is this rain coming from Don?

Today it could hit 70 here

Isn't bamboo an invasive species? Why don't people get arrested for doing this crap?

Out of the box thinking is not *dumb*, just because you're an unimaginative uncreative robot. I've read some of your posts, so I know. The conventional *ideas* that people like you have will NOT get us out of the various crises we face. It's not *dumb* to want to get rid of places that stink. I'm not talking about getting rid of ALL marshland obviously, just the ones near where people live. You obviously do not live near one. Do you know how bad that area smells in the summer? Most of the who live here want the swamp that runs near Rockaway Boulevard to be drained because it smells so awful that you can smell it even with your windows roll up. Check yourself, there's plenty of good area for wetlands, but it doesn't have to be near where people live. You might need a time out, people are allowed to express their opinions. There are ways around flooding-- INCLUDING IMPROVED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. There's a lot we can do to fix flooding issues, stop using concrete and asphalt are examples. Take some Paxil so you can calm the hell down dude.

Bill Gates has the right idea, he has introduced sterile genetically modified mosquitoes that can't breed into Florida to lessen malaria and other diseases that they carry. So different types of mosquitoes behave differently? I get rid of standing water right away, it breeds not just mosquitoes but other biting bugs like horseflies and gnats.

First Flakes for mountains now looking likely; maybe even Valley Locations.

obviously the bill might be coming due for our Halloween last year which was in the mid 80s.

oh trust me i was happy they won. maybe they were a bit slow from having the bye week.

500 mb means from all three are vestigial with +anomalies over eastern Canada/D Straight extending out to the temporal horizon ... meanwhile, the CPC numerical telecon ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png ) is pretty depressed with the index. I'm sorta curious if we see some 'emergence' in the guidance ...where there's some non-linear forcing that they don't respond to until closer in time. And then you get more digging into the M/A. I noticed that is actually tending to happen in the ensemble means for the D8-11 range, with a coastal signal in there time range. Whether or not there's a TC involved in all that is just adding some d-drip value... It's not winter yet but hang in there my fellow addicts ... there's can be interesting aspects to pay attention to. haha

The latest CFS outlook has now shifted toward a wetter outcome for the close of October and start of November.

just the NAM so tfwiw but these grid numbers over Logan imply/look modestly impressive for a convection swath tomorrow afternoon...probably E 30020663908 -2599 032218 49170901

Live look at your local and social media pundit

2 days late... but not denied?

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1947) NYC: 84 (1920) LGA: 82 (1947) JFK: 81 (1963) Lows: EWR: 31 (1974) NYC: 31 (1871) LGA: 33 (1974) JFK: 31 (1973) Historical: 1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves. (Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum) 1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel) 1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days. 1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

63 / 41. Sunny. Maybe a scattered shower later as front passes through ,otherwise a dry week. Near normal. FRont to WPA

Looking a little closer while I'm working on Holiday 2026 thread which I will post this week sometime, all 3 winter months look to have significant arctic blasts this year. How the anoms flush out will depend of course. Don't even ask about snow, that's a fickle beast. Might as well ask if your getting any from your woman this winter.