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perfect for Mid May

I'll take it as long as we keep the 90s away.. no idea how some like it 90/75 its miserable

18z CMC has a fire hose for SNE https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Dews are coming. Gulf of Mexico is AN. Ass sweat here we come.

I wish we could lock this run in... if we can hold off the heat and dews until June and July then get lucky enough to have a cooler August that would be great!

What a great stretch to close this month. The rains helped immensely but we need more. The spring growth push still dried out the underbrush, so let’s throw in some solid soakers in the next couple weeks to subdue fire risk.

Another month gone. Wasn’t it just New Years.

I’d buy into it if was mid- late summer. Not in Mayorch though. This has a central apps up to S VT kind of look

Gfs weekly rainfall

"It's a crapshoot at this range. Nobody knows"

Wagons west

I'm hoping that's not the case and he's finally right for once.

Full-blown, massive cave.

That is climo for these sort of setups I think

For sure… but if you are going on camera for the news, you’re probably putting a few rain drops on the extended map. Maybe it turns out to be nice weather instead, but one could make a generalized forecast right now that some rainfall is likely happening along the east coast.

ya that's why I included other areas just not sure yet but looking more likely

its been trending north and east.. we will see though

You do realize most of this a week out will end up west of us right ?

How often have we seen things "cave" in this range only for there to be a trend back in the opposite direction inside D4-5? This very well could happen, we've seen it before this time of year, but this is an anomalous evolution with more than one feature. Any subtle difference in evolution could have a vast difference on sensible weather.

GEFS starting to cave.. someone is going to get a crap load of rain.. might be PA NY NJ or SNE

Not too shabby here! at least the flow is southerly or Southeasterly and not a wheel o'reah offshore

Let's not count our chickens before they shit. We're still in the range where there is a tendency for models to overstate some of these features.

just keeps going.. out to day 10 and still on and off showers

There hasn’t been much major severe to write home about in this part of Central PA for what seems like the last several years but this year has definitely been off to a wild start. Prior to yesterday there was a widespread severe event on 3/16 that really impacted some of the same areas with a few NWS confirmed tornadoes and lots of straight line wind damage in the I-80 corridor as well as the 99 corridor too. That one really hit Bellefonte and surrounding hard. Last nights line really hit a bit further south.. getting Cambria/Blair/southern Centre/Huntingdon coming in from western PA where it had its largest impacts in and around Pittsburgh. Carrolltown in Cambria County had the most notable damage report, with a cell phone tower being destroyed by the winds. Something you don’t see often outside hurricanes or maybe direct hits from tornadoes. The NWS reportedly surveyed this today and reported that to be straight line wind damage of 110-120mph winds. https://www.wtaj.com/weather/nws-survey-confirms-straight-line-wind-damage-in-cambria-county/ There was other widespread issues around here and tens of thousands of folks without power. I was out here for a couple hours and my parents up the road didn’t get theirs back until earlier today. No damage here at home fortunately.

Ok, what’s the excuse now? You’ve got every model showing a multi-day wet period. For the record I’m not saying 3-5” of rain is falling but there seems to be a high probability of a multi-day period of clouds and occasional water.