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  2. BOX tosses weenies--at least for SE areas. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Blustery and not as cool with lows 10 to 15. Temperature rising into the lower 20s after midnight. Sunday Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Windy with highs around 30. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Windy with lows around 20.
  3. Stolen from our friends in MA forum. That’s uh quite the hill to be on when literally nothing is showing that at like 84hrs out lol
  4. 06z NAM seems a bit slower and weaker by end of run than its 00z counterpart was. Probably not much of a clue since it hadn't reached the explosive development phase by 18z Saturday.
  5. I feel completely opposite versus last weekend's lead time into the event for a snow storm. Obviously, that transitioned into worry for the ice storm. But with respect to all snow, perhaps even significant totals, my confidence is growing. Got to love recent trends with a stronger and slower mid-to-upper low versus the coastal surface low. If the moisture feed is there, that ULL will eat. Very cold column and high ratios. I guess if I get my heart broken, so be it. I am all in on this system.
  6. Rule number one of weenie forecasting: Ride the model that provides snow. Rule number two of weenie forecasting: Toss anything that doesn't. Rule number three of weenie forecasting: Say "these always come north/south/east/west" (whichever correction says snow.
  7. RGEM takes the ULL from Memphis to North Alabama, and it's stronger than it was at 0z. Still snowing over the eastern half of the state with 1-3 inches down from Nashville to Cookeville, and 3-5 inches down from Cookeville eastward.
  8. A lot of us just received 15-18 inches of snow and the temperature never went above 12. Do better than it's too cold.
  9. RGEM looks like it's winding the vort up tighter further NW as well vs 0z. The ICON, while not quite enough for most of us, jumped west 200 miles.
  10. 6z nam digging farther west and closing off over the Tennessee, Bama, and Mississippi border at 84! Would be a great run for us afterwards
  11. Ratios are 17 to 20:1 on the NAM across the state as snow is falling. Just south of Nashville, and in NE Tn from earlier snow, 4-6 inches have fallen at 84 and it's still snowing over the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area. Alabama and Georgia are in the game.
  12. Today
  13. In response, we are getting nammed, almost state wide by 78. Looks like the RGEM.
  14. The NAM is winding our energy up over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri at 06z, 72hrs, at 78 at 0z it wasn't quite wound yet and was over SE Missouri.
  15. Agricultural nightmare. Frozen pipe city. Gonna need a lot of plumbers, fire sprinkler peeps
  16. Post your February forecasts, due to storm situation will extend penalty free deadline to 06z FEB 2nd. I may change my mind but to start us off, -5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 _ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0
  17. The SLP was actually East this run. It’s just doing ULL things in the foothills. .
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