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the “today in Amex “ history bit I was doing there was a big hit fun trip down memory lane.

I don’t have time for facts. Was just guessing. Lol

Canadian going to come in further south too and more pronounced wedge.

I’d still think this longwave look should’ve produced at least one or two solid coastals. Only fly in the ointment is you can see the western ridge getting sliced off a bit in Canada, we know at least a couple systems failed on us because we couldn’t quite amplify it enough out west. But even with that showing up minorly in the mean, it’s still surprising we didn’t pop at least a miller B or two.

This has been a crazy long drought. Is this the third winter? Last winter I had snowpack for almost a month due to no rain washing it away like usual. Same with the past two winters. We're lucky I guess that the one storm we did get was frozen. Same with the past two winters. I've never seen creeks dry up for years.

We can't even get that. Its been bone dry since the snowstorm.

Patience grasshoppers

The RNA is fine starting mid month as mentioned by Don. However yes we need the AO to return to negative.

Low placement better at 114

Yeah that too.

I'm really not surprised given the MJO....SWFE dearth I am.

CMC going to be some type of hit

The average of those are based on good patterns and bad patterns. We had a pretty good pattern, but we couldn’t buy a coastal which to me would be surprising if you told me that five months ago.

I mean we're really NOT far from a positive solution here on the GFS, but we really need to get things right upstairs to make this one work. The margin for error is small here. We had the NE ULL in a much better spot and slower which would be our cold air feed - this followed the Euro trend for sure. More separation in the northern stream to our west as well but that that SW is not as robust as the 6Z Euro advertised. This along with a SW trend on our southern stream energy = no partial phase to bring this one up the coast. All I am saying is that it wouldn't take too much!

i mean it was the snowiest model initially ---and then become supressed so it wasnt perfect

Lol one piece of the low on the GFS ends up stuck in Tampa

You'd hope for more than 1 warning event, though.

This run went from 52 on 06z to 38 in MBY another tick like that and we might be in business. This is why I love weather, just went we think we can predict the future 5 days out, it changes drastically in 6hrs!

No was that s stream is getting up here on the GFS.

Exactly how many 12 inch plus storms do you think we have on an annual basis

Manhole fire season is about to take off. Gonna sound like 4th of July around here.

12z GFS not showing any snow/ice, but it does put a 1027 to 1030 high in a pretty prime spot. I'd look for things to trend colder at the surface. In the last 3 cycles, GSO has gone from 57 to 51 to 37 late afternoon Sunday. Quite the change. TW

You trust that right?

Euro AI has just been deadly, really unless otherwise proven wrong seems like the model to trust.

It's getting to the point of...do we even have to look at other models? I feel like with the last few events it's always a step ahead. It's ensembles snow maps are a mess though they always show a lot of snow for no reason.