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On its own. Relax.

Looks wet!

Low of 27, high of 57.

Two day new snow here is 7-8" and its a winter wonderland out there. Never got out of the mid-20's and flakes were more like tiny LES again. Nothing says winter like a solid snow on top of a decent snowpack.

0z hrrr not backing down. It's either out to lunch or going to pull a big win being the model that was right

The window is pretty closed for anything more than we have seen already. I think best case scenario is a broader precip shield with like .3-.4 qpf but the flow is so fast there is little margin for error and any step back in the orientation of that PV lobe (ie ICON) and we could be left with nothing.

2 inches will seem like a hecs

Looks good in the county, I'm going to be up there 2/2-2/6.

38F starting to lose my pack! Dammit

Back to the 12/12 storm thread- Looks like about an inch out my way according to latest guidance.

Light to mod snow continues

5-9” on its way in the northern part of the county. Nice early season gains…hoping we can hold them.

26.8° -SN 2.1”

27.4 this morning, 58.2 this afternoon. Nice day

I like hearing cold is staying around

I love snow but I try to be objective. Last Winter is a pretty good analog for this one imo. But if we are colder in Jan/Feb, there is always a chance that we can do a bigger storm, but the STJ is just completely dead so far this Winter. Acting like a Moderate Nina right now. I also notice that you were leaning cold in the Fall after leaning warm the last few Winters.. not bad so far!

Is there any real possibility we manage to get that or is the window closing by 12z tomorrow to get an actual low pressure induced storm instead of our current reliance on favorable dynamics.

Pleasant 58F at 2:22pm today.

That would be true deep winter stuff in December if it verifies.

Surprisingly nice event here. As of this morning, we were supposed to have a little bit of snow mixing and then totaling less than 1 inch. As it has happened, we have nice snow growth fluffy accumulating snow. At 2 inches now it’s still coming down steadily 28°. An over performer and a few degrees colder than predicted. Let that be our trend this winter.

We're this close to greatness. Wow that's actually impressive coming from you. You've always struck me as a person that hedges warmer.

The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them. The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked. I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.

I'm actually pretty bullish on colder this Winter.. at least one of the better Winters in the last 10 years. The models made a huge shift to warm over the last few days though.. Polar Vortex in northern/NW Canada really pops the SE ridge here in the 2nd half of December. Here's a post I just made about it in the ENSO thread: Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. After the clippers the next few days, I don't really see any threats for snow until around Jan 1st.

18z EPS a tick better. The euro was very close to a better solution with the sw a bit more south and west.

MTK to BID special...that's somewhat rare. Be pretty cool though.