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yeah, there's definitely a kind of neg-head bias about signaling NE of the Maxon Dixie. Because we don't get 55 K foot tropopause stabbing nuclear updrafts with stove pipes carving canyons underneath, they're not worthy ... Kidding... but there's something like a wait-and-see thing up here? I've seen more upgrades than planned scenarios - it's almost like that's their policy.

June 9 2002: Extensive flash flood begins across northwest Minnesota. 14.55 inches would fall over the next 48 hours near Lake of the Woods. Floodwaters cover the city of Roseau. The Roseau River looked like a large lake from a satellite view. For Tuesday, June 9, 2026 1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 9 Tue National Mitchell Day 9 Tue National Strawberry Rhubarb Pie Day 9 Tue National Donald Duck Day 9 Tue National Call Your Doctor Day 9 Tue International Dark 'n Stormy® Day 9 Tue National Krewe of Tucks Day 9 Tue National Meal Prep Day 9 Tue National No Apologies Period Day

It's quite impressive to see this signature in our neck of the woods. That's some Grade-A futility right there. Ooof

I mean I can only tell you what some models show. I feel they usually throw away the northeast outside day 1 and focus on the more current areas getting dangerous weather.

Thanks, Chris. The following two sources are very recent (2026) and are in support of RONI over ONI: New NOAA El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index Supports Drought Early Warning RONI accounts for the long-term ocean temperature trends in a way that the traditional ONI does not, thus providing a better representation of the seasonal climate variability. Not accounting for the warming oceans means recent El Niño temperature anomalies look bigger than they really are, and La Niña anomalies look smaller. Consider the last six winters: Five of the last six winters saw a La Niña pattern, which is one of the reasons much of the southern half of the Nation experienced persistent and recurring drought throughout the first half of this decade. Using the traditional ONI, 2020-2023 experienced a “triple-dip” La Niña, but RONI classified this as one continuous, unbroken La Niña event that lasted three years. These years were also very dry across the Southwest and Southern Plains. The 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters were ENSO-neutral using the traditional ONI. Using RONI, these events would instead be classified as definitive La Niñas. Winter 2025-2026 brought Moderate to Severe Drought (D1-D2) or worse for a broad swath of the Southern U.S. from Arizona to Florida. The La Niña pattern in place since around August 2025 is a primary driver of this drought. This season mostly followed the traditional La Niña response, with a few exceptions https://www.drought.gov/news/new-noaa-el-nino-southern-oscillation-index-supports-drought-early-warning-2026-03-11 ———————————————— Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) A clearer, more reliable way to track El Niño and La Niña More reliable in real-time: ONI depends heavily on the choice of a 30‑year average. As tropical ocean temperatures shift over time, that reference can lag behind current conditions. RONI reduces this sensitivity, leading to more consistent classifications. More stable ENSO classifications RONI is less sensitive to which 30‑year reference period is used, meaning that the classification of past El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña events is more stable. Clearer connection to impacts RONI better reflects when ENSO‑related atmospheric patterns are actually present, improving alignment with seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks. How is this change to RONI going to benefit decision makers who rely on an accurate ENSO forecast? RONI is better able to capture the expected changes in the atmosphere inherent to ENSO, and El Niño/La Niña categorization is more stable even as the climatology changes. Because RONI is more accurately reflecting the ENSO state, users will be able to more accurately make decisions that rely on associated seasonal forecasts and risk assessments. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/pdf/roni-info-may-2026.pdf

46 here this morning

So SPC's gonna come around then ? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I've noticed a trend in the AI D3-D6 range tends to herd and "go big" a lot.

It inched warmer overall from what I'm seeing... It's almost a complexion thing where it looks less aggressive then 24 hours ago. Just about unilaterally, all hydrostatic fields from Washington to Maine were like 2-10 dm taller in the general cinema throughout. However, the 'geometry' or shape I suppose, still looks similar - some sort of a trough in the midwest/Lakes region... the depth of which proooobably shallows some as it nears in guidance. It's not very clear if that actually will be an agency for "cold" delivery here now that I look closer. I agree that it's more "mild down-ish" for SNE... but this may end up being so for you guys, too. For one, these cold amplitude deals ...the models have been overselling them since 2012 and the arrival of the version-upgrades-every-10-minutes era. I think they've swapped beta testing/polishing for some other ambition.. .who knows. One aspect that is emerging... as we near the solstice, all three ens systems are rapidly retrograding said trough - not progressing into a +PNA/summer killer. That numerical telecon has a strong -PNA emerging just beyond next week. Starts falling around the 15th... by "Juneteenth", -2.5 SD. This latter index state was more in the -1 and a quarter range 24 hours ago. It's doubled. heh. Again, all three... GEPS/GEFS/EPS. So taken fwiw, a gambler at the long lead table's putting their bucks down on the idea that what cooler signal does materialize for next week, it's likely transient.

We’ve only just begun

The warmup this morning is rapid - already 23C/76F and totally blue skies still somehow with the higher humidity and approaching clouds/storms later. It was suppose to be overcast by now, finally a reversal.

The trajectory is east, but then it gets cut south last minute because the flow is still kind of blocky. So I don’t have hopes east of like Worcester to eastern Connecticut. I guess we shall see.

Hopefully its done for a bit after that.. ill be in Atlantic City next Tuesday through Friday.. hoping its not to hot

I ended up with .25. The rain today looks like it's being stubbornly north in Kentucky.

Was waiting for your comment on this! Its intriguing for sure.

To the three people who aren’t already aware, 73rd anniversary of the Worcester Tornado today

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

I seen yesterday there were 6 tornados confirmed by NWS in western Pa. US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA · Follow · Just a quick update: so far, a total of six tornadoes have been confirmed in SW Pennsylvania from the Saturday storms: three in Washington County, two in Fayette County, and one in Westmoreland County. Additional details forthcoming both this evening and tomorrow.

At least we got a deep summer stretch right on into about Monday or so.

Yeah next week is a little cooler here for sure. It looked like the trough axis would set up over the Great Lakes but it’s sort of setting up in southeast Canada so we’ll have more of a infiltration of cooler and drier air, although I don’t think it’s gonna be really below normal unless that low on the euro is correct.

promising look, nice that we should see multiple rounds impact klot

KFOK 45 so your number is impressive. .

Let's start a GoFundMe to tear down the Appalachians

Min 48.8°…sucks but it’s still early June. Still looks cooler next week…maybe more like mild downs in SNE. EC tries to sneak a low under NNE which would make for a mank day. Keep the mean trough in the midwest and we’ll be okay most days.

Hopefully, the clouds and convection can prevent another run on 100° so soon after the one in May. The only model with upper 90s in our area is the Euro. But it has less clouds and convection than the other models. It could be correct if the convection underperforms with the ongoing drought. The model forecasts highlight the big temperature divide as early as Thursday.