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I'm thinking we can probably put this thread to rest by the 0Z runs tonight. Maybe change the name then to follow the Norlun. Forget the models, I'm still shocked that whethergeek2025 may have gotten this one totally wrong.

Yeah that doesn’t fly with public or customers. Big difference. Leave out areas from advisory with less confidence.

There is still enough time and room for the south coast in this and it probably wouldn't even take much more to get at least some minor accumulations farther inland. Would probably want to start seeing some jumps 0z tonight and the theme continuing 12z tomorrow though

Don, do you have any info on driest February's for NYC climate sites? Are we close to being in the top 3 to 5 driest assuming not much else falls this month?

How about you look at thermal profiles. Report back your findings.

Absolutely so true. We all have both of them. How we deal determines a lot

Lolol

I 100% agree with this.

Exactly why I want it so bad lol We need the Canadian curling team to boop them closer together

Lmao. So true.

I'm at .31" for February as of this morning. Snowfall the season sitting at 36.8". Precipitation from 11/1 through today: 8.85". Between 11/1 and today only two precipitation events of 1"+. 12/19 - 12/20 and 1/25 - 1/26. Nothing else close to a 1" event.

I was recalling that event in my mind on my way to work today... As I remember it, there wasn't any forecast of snow in Lanco the night of the event. I had pretty much tuned out the weather that evening as there wasn't anything for me to be watching out for. I went to bed, I remember looking out our window and seeing the moon shining brightly. Just a normal, chilly mostly clear night in Maytown. I had no idea what was happening 15 miles to my east... Next morning, I'm driving to work. Still completely clueless. I get to the bottom of Chickies Hill at the 441/30 interchange and there's PennDot truck with a plow sitting there. I'm laughing because A, it was a sunny morning, B, the ground was completely brown, and C, well, it was PennDot doing "what PennDot does best." I get to work and after several minutes I start getting messages that colleagues in Lancaster and surrounding environs are going to be late or won't be in at all. Great, the flu bug hit, I'm thinking. Then one of my best friends from childhood who works with me and obviously knows I'm a weather guy runs in and says "can you believe what happened in Lancaster last night...isn't that wild that they got that much snow and no one else got anything?" I go to MU's weather page and there's Horst with a picture of him standing outside of his MT house measuring 12" of snow. A foot! And 15 miles west, I had clear skies. Probably the only time in my life I felt like I was living in a snowbelt area and was just outside one of those bands. I'm still stunned to this day that it happened in Lancaster County/

No no we don’t

I don't know why, but that area of reduced accumulation going up the NE Extension in central Montco ALWAYS shows up on clown maps. Schuykill River surface temp anomalies??

That’s a whole life philosophy. Good for a long and happy life.

ULL

Will be some snow whether Norlun or scrape .

I think I’m cooked here outside of 2-4 or something like that.

jma on board

That’s a borderline of a warning. I guess they changed it to 6”+ for an event versus the old 12/24hr criteria. But yeah, we’ll need a little boost in ratios Saturday I think to get the county averages over 6”

You’d probably get something similar to the gfs.

SLK sits on the county line so one part is under a WSW and another under an advisory. Expecting 5-10” here. The key for mby is the fluff after the initial burst. If there’s been one trend here in my first winter at WXW2 it’s that upslope or terrain enhanced precip over performs more often than not. Of course, there are levels to this and 10mi north in the middle of nowhere will score like 25% more.

my "confidence" is that the storm isnt going poof and trending towards something. That is all I'm confident about. Not for a second do I think the GFS is going to score a coup, and I dont think my wording suggested that, but GFS is liking a tucked storm, and other models have trended a bit sharper w/ trough axis as well as ticked W a bit. doing a nooner WMB (Weenie Model Blend) suggests that a light/mod event is surely in play, (norlun or no norlun) for many Eastern pa folks.

Yeah. Its a kicker. Not a phaser.