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Jumpin’ January

Brine going down in Cary. Even without the precip much of it will be worn away with today’s rush hour not started yet and then all day tomorrow with everyone getting their MB&TP.

It actually seems to invert as qpf spreads throughout 75% of sne.

They (GFS/ECMWF) aren't that far apart at this point, are they? What, maybe 50-75 miles with the heavy stuff offshore? The ECMWF OP in particular has shifted NW with the heavier stuff. As many people have mentioned, these are the kinds of setups that can and sometimes do shift NW in the last 48 hours. The outcome is extremely sensitive to minor changes in the shortwaves near the Gulf and also the Lakes. Presumably the AI models are correcting for those cases somehow. But that sensitivity is a double edged sword. I can also see how the AI models might overcorrect if their training datasets aren't perfectly representative or well matched to the current setup.

I mean...they could extend that purple line southwest by 50 miles. Wouldn't hurt at this range. Smh. Also, fun/random fact: Ferris Bueller's best friend...his name is Cameron Frye (played by Alan Ruck), which so happens to be my name, just without the 'e' on the end. While I was born the same year the movie came out, contrary to local conspiracies, I wasn't named after the character. 0:34 in the clip below gets me every time... https://youtu.be/LOMO_eSGcU4?si=38NB8nmLgHGa8XN6

NAM is well west of 12z which was pushing the low to Iceland.

3k NAM with a lil somethin somethin.

I wouldn't say terrible. It made a pretty good jump nw

Not dead yet!

Nam gets some light rain and snow into SE areas

a closer version of ass. getting the ready for the 18z AI vs OP battle

Looks like its still chasing convection

NAM, you so crazy.

NAM still whiffs, but it’s a closer whiff lol

Looks like the GFS and Euro have snow getting into coastal areas from the offshore storm. Seems to be creeping closer.

Most of the time, everyone is so way off, lol greg Fishel does a darn pretty good job forecasting!

It’s a shame we can’t get the moisture here for Sunday. NAM has the dew points supportive of accumulating snowfall.

And what about the forum members not immediately in NYC? Does eastern LI and north west areas not exist?

Updated NWS-Philly map for both storms: 1-2" just a few miles NW of 95 and 2-4"N of 78 and W of the Parkway, roughly on Sat. Guessing 1-2" worth of snow along 95, but most of that will melt - maybe a slushy inch on colder surfaces unless we get HRRR style rates. And 1-2" for the coast to 95 on Sunday, for now - if the Euro makes another move NW, they'll up those forecasts for Sunday, IMO. Looks like a fun 2 days ahead...

NAM is definitely west through 48. **** I don’t know how much of an effect that will have on the solution up here

Just a gentle 100 mile shift

Slight westward adjustment in the NAM

12z Euro is replete with chances in the long range as well! So fingers crossed we can reel one in!