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Going to the park with my wife and baby. Its nice in the shade. Im already sweating lol

2010 vs Chicago A little run in the playoffs would be nice, NFL draft in another 10 days and hopefully the Phils can get the bats going then training camp. Severe weather would be a bonus as well. Anything to get through these dead boring hot weather months on the colander till Fall approaches....

Man it’s hot in sun doing yard work.

Late nooners. 83 in my backyard in Tamaqua.

Expanded the slight south across much of IL/IN/OH because of this.

to add on Any supercells than can remain on the warm/south side of the front will be capable of producing tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF-2/3). Some consideration was given to including greater tornado probabilities and a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) focused across southern WI/far northern IL. But, convection may have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly this evening, so confidence was not high enough for a categorical upgrade at this time. Regardless, very large to giant hail (potentially up to 3-4 inches in diameter) will be a threat with sustained supercells, and a swath of severe/damaging winds appears likely with a convective cluster spreading eastward across southern Lower MI this evening into tonight.

SPN reports had a couple hours of missing wind data.. this was the highest I could find the last 12 hours METAR PGSN 141154Z AUTO 06071G113KT

SPC holds at enhanced due to uncertainty

We hiked it on Sunday with the dog. A guy blew past us carrying his telemark skis on the way up, eager to get on the remaining snow.

77/56

Outflow boundaries from the morning MCS should make things fun, too.

On the south shore of LI warmest its been here is 77.8°F which I hit earlier today around 11am. Sea breeze is capping my temp from going any warmer. Been hovering around 76-77 for the past hour or so

80° is too warm. 50 is too cold. I'm turning into a cranky old fuk

80.2

it's a sup day, even around here.

Yup.. exactly . Running a sprinkler merely wets the top soil . Need rain to prevent fert burn . How many lawns have we seen over the years where the landscapers drop fert, and then it doesn’t rain for a week plus and bakes in the high sun angle. By then the damage to the lawn for the summer is done and they are torched and/ or die in many spots. By the same token don’t want an inch in a heavy downpour in 10 minutes . It’s tricky

Good point, guess I was more so referring to sups but yes models have been consistent in showing that. Definitely some touch and go to it. 15z HRRR wants to fire a mean storm over N Lasalle Co around 00z, so first hints of maybe some more initiation in NE IL.

I'd worry though about a heavy thunderstorm washing it away vs throwing some hose water on it right now.

There still seemed to be some Nina like influence that year though. December was mild like you would expect in a Nino but it came with Nina like tendencies which made the east very warm that month. 2014 seems like the last Nino that really had the classic summer to winter progression IMO.

i'm with kev on this, you don't want to rely on irrigation to get the fert into the soil - you want actual rain, more than a 1/4 inch. that's a lot of water, and relying on a well in a steiny pattern is risky

One thing is for sure, the STJ is going to be on roids. The PMM has gone severely positive. Combine that with a strong/super El Niño and watch out

Looking at some initial signs for next winter JAMSTEC April update includes first DEC-FEB forecast.

beer?

We get bowing segment remnants from nw il and s wi sups

Snow in May...? May see some flakes early next week. I have no desire for A/C weather. Have not turned it on yet, but may need to this week. The polar vortex split attempt (wave-2) that occurred back in early Feb will significantly impact our large-scale wx pattern in late Apr & May as the circulation & temperature anomalies from it propagate into the troposphere, leading to increased high-latitude blocking (-NAO/-AO) https://x.com/webberweather/status/2042246921671336290?