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December 30

The trends have certainly been noteworthy, you've done a damn good job and highlighting these trends (and not just with this period) over the past few weeks. It's been great to see some trends moving in our favor as we get closer to an event versus the other way around, which has plagued us the last several winters. I am very intrigued moving into and through January.

that final depiction looks perfect right now. great ridge position. 50-50 low not suppressive. southern stream off pacific? great amplitude. very good trouch position to go negative near us?

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

Meh, how'd that fronto work out for you?

I'd rather the snow days for legit events... but I understand your reasoning.

With lots of half days already in place, you are probably right?

You should know by now IF that scenario changes they will be the last one to the table. Key word IF.

When the Conservancy took over in 2015 I monitored the measurements for the first several years. They seemed to be doing a good job from 2015-2020. If you take the last 5 seasons Central Park has averaged 2.6 inches less than Newark and 2.1 inches less than LGA per year. When you consider that the average snowfall over the last 5 seasons has been 15.8 to 18.4 that's a fairly high percentage difference on the order of 13-16% lower at Central Park vs the two stations it lies in between. This is probably boring to most and probably warrants it's own thread for those that have followed and monitored this for many years.

this is absolutely pitiful lmao next week could end up legit if that block keeps uptrending

06z GFS was a bit of a shock to me .. the 12z runs will be telling ..if the south trend continues .. it will be definitely something to watch!!!

Cancel school for tomorrow, and it’s a win for me. Xmas break can start a day early. Thank you Santa.

23 this morning. The sky was falling this weekend but it's stopped I think.

People don’t mind as much if the models underpromise and the storm overperforms like January 2016. But it’s a whole different ballgame when the models overpromise and the storm underperforms like January 2015. Don’t even get started talking about the model initialization errors discussion a few days before the Boxing Day Blizzard.

Such a strange threat. Just a massive south trend on the GFS out of nowhere for run after run after run and now it’s actually maybe getting other ops to move towards it? Would be an insane coup for it. Obviously I wish there was more ensemble support but at the same time, could it just be a situation where ens runs aren’t gonna sniff what an op is catching on to? One can hope…

NWS has 58 for Central PA Friday lol..I mean are they awake?

wouldn't be a shock if that got all of New England.

It is earlier now, so staying up for it as less of a challenge.

Going to be a weird one tomorrow...probably going to see some surprises on both sides of the spectrum...overperforming somewhere locally and underperforming somewhere too. Should rip decently though for a time wherever that fronto band traverses

Below normal temperatures look to continue through at least Christmas with some models now hinting at significantly colder weather than currently forecast for Friday. We do have a chance of some light snow, sleet and freezing rain arriving tomorrow morning. While amounts will be light the timing near rush hour could be a potential problem. We should dry out by tomorrow afternoon. Christmas Eve Day looks sunny. Plenty of uncertainty regarding both temperatures and precipitation by Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

Below normal temperatures look to continue through at least Christmas with some models now hinting at significantly colder weather than currently forecast for Friday. We do have a chance of some light snow, sleet and freezing rain arriving tomorrow morning. While amounts will be light the timing near rush hour could be a potential problem. We should dry out by tomorrow afternoon. Christmas Eve Day looks sunny. Plenty of uncertainty regarding both temperatures and precipitation by Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

A couple mores ticks south for the seasonal trend. Congrats @Bob Chill ?

well also the Euro of now ain't the Euro of old.

Not sure Im buyin what they are sellin, as this is a really wonky evolution, but as we are on the eastern side of the pig ridge in the central US, NAO is headed negative, and as i suggested last week, then models might be correcting once they latch on. Could be what we are seein here as the cold press starts to work its magic. I'll be casually looking as its a crazy busy time, but I hope we can pull somethin off, and keep the big warmup out west....out west. The zonalish look i suggested last week seems to be showing up as we turn the calendar. How long it lasts....we'll find out in a couple weeks.