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What a start to 2026

i did and i actually set up another account too as i couldn't get logged in

Once again there is no need to panic for folks that like snowy winters in NYC metro because the overwhelming majority of winters in NYC where we received at least 7 inches of snow in December had normal totals over 25 inches for the season with many much above average - the keyword is patience - also several had low totals in January then had much above totals after January monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

It’s gotten really weird. Seems like it’s cloudy 5 days a week now.

Well then both of you

The CMC was trying even harder than the GFS for 1/15. Was close. Plenty of time for changes better or worse.

I won't speak for him, but I def. can be....probably because I put so much time into this shit...it's tough to reconcile the fact that you can spend half of your life writing and researching, and still be wrong....I'm also so passionate about it, which is why I put so much time into it and formulate strong opinions on the material.

I hate to say it, but both you and tip could both be very hard-headed, and believe so strongly in what you're saying that neither one of you can see each other's points. You're both not wrong.... Just need to agree to disagree. Plus, you both kind of scare me anyway lol. ( Jk )

I def. didn't mean to come across as critically as you took that is all I am getting at. Truth be told, I tend to be a bit less aggressive on the attribution scale than you are, but I have trended significantly more so in your direction since that El Nino a couple of years ago. I am no way, ever arguing that CC is not real, or isn't impacting everything....it's just a matter of how much, and how.

That's true in either direction. You may find this hard to believe ... I don't try to substantiate more or less, up down right or left. I wanna know what's going on. that's it. that's all. that's the whole thing. One has to mention it at times, because it is a factor. I don't know how much or less at any given moment - no one does. It doesn't appear my or anyone's mentioning it is actually being considered fairly - so yeah, that? that's a perception. LIke it f'n matters in the grand scheme of anything, anyway. haha

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo. However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.

Total same page as he is.

You're scaring the Karen's!

That's how you know we're down bad. Not just us, but extreme inactivity across the US during peak climo. It's rare to not even see fantasy snow showing up. Either we have a huge flip and a return to storminess towards mid month or we're pushing into some rare territory

Man, the 12z GFS is just barely missing on some decent chances. By 258 and just barely in fantasy land, the 12z GFS looks very similar to its AI counterpart. Jan 17 is kind of a timeframe I have circled when the base of the trough flattens out, and allows for storms to slide across.

Tried to upload the GFS AI loop but alas. Either way, I like the evolution it shows. We lose our PNA a little bit for some time but cold really dumps from the lakes south. There’s several instances where the trough orientation digs sharply.

They would’ve jumped by now.

The 2 weeks in Jan 1999 2nd-15th. Epic! 40”+ 27” depth at one point.

Like I said surgery on the 14th lol .

Captain of chaos.

My now dead neighbor in Queens when we went out to shovel “nothing special here. just a path.” As a kid, I knew this was extraordinary then. That was really the first in a parade of epic storms that spanned the next 20 years in the NYC area. and if you lived in Queens back then, you remember that snow removal in New York City was much more primitive than it is now, even though it wasn’t that long ago. A lot less salt was used and the secondary and tertiary streets sometimes took days to get cleared. we lived on a secondary street in Whitestone and during those big storms we got a plow width and nothing more. Nowadays that would never happen

The 12z ICON buckled the jet further west than the 12z GFS. I wouldn't be surprised to actually see a cutter in that time frame...that is how "off" that run was Jan14-15 on the 12z GFS.

torching

I will say the 12z GFS still rotates a lot of energy at 500 through the northern stream. It barely missed a phases right there w/ the southern stream. The southern stream energy was just slightly ahead. I wonder if that is going to end up being a storm?

I must say you have a proclivity for posting amusing gifs