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ASEMATT approved run

Wow yall at the GFS. Just creeping up the coast

Snow contest thread. good luck to everybody

Its a hybrid east se flow someone like Scooter Tim Marshfield get obliterated

Ripping at 231

This is true but not so much so in recent times. tends to be true more so when it comes to freezing rain turning to plain rain as surface temps are difficult for models but I am I right there with you on hoping the turn over does not occur or at least holds off longer.

what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast.

The pattern is almost repeating itself. Check out hour 0 on the cmc vs 120 hours. It’s pretty much same thing, Stj energy undercutting ridge and elongated tpv potentially phasing with it .

This is like the 4th straight model with this kind of trend, and not one person has said "Caving to the GFS" ;-) In all seriousness, I love these trends this morning. Let's keep it going. Every little tick south could mean hours or more of snow vs. sleet/freezing rain.

Ukie with 1.8"qpf in Wake county

Yeah, I hate when everything starts melting right after a storm. I mean Ill take a big dog no matter what, but if I could control the weather I'd have a hard time drawing it up much better than what mother nature is providing. Cold before and after the storm for the win with more snow chances too.

We got the thermals and snow is about to enter our area from the south. If this wasn't so far out, I'd FOLKS it

Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC.

who's got the big ones lock in early chart?

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches. Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

For whatever reason... analogs are stacked with Ninos so the pattern "appears" to be ripe for a more traditional Miller A. It's been 10 years so I guess we're due lol

We just had a bit of sleet fall in Raleigh believe it or not.

12z GFS goes bonkers with that potential Miller A next weekend.

Well models are very bullish on we will be doing this all over again next week with a Big Event next weekend possible. Check the GFS and CMC 12z

Incredible similarities between the surface and h500 depictions on both the GFS and Canadian at 192 hours.

deja vu

Development has begun!

Jesus