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On the board! Flash flooding is still the biggest risk in the southeast from Arthur.

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a 24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes, Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in the global models for low pressure development over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Yea, I haven't seen under 30" since 2011-2012.

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High Island, Texas. Reason for upgrade: 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. Big win for Joe Bastardi!

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly.

This is my fav MD of 2026 so far, a keeper! It feels like that here too, but as long as its not too cloudy during fall vibes I won't be livid.

Hrrr has terrible hand on current trends. Can't really trust it. Cams may not be reliable today. Will be a watch sfc obs and satellite day. I think best threat will be between I74 and I72 today. I think I80 done.

It is pretty much Ben Noll's X feed in the other thread, with like 2 or 3 others sprinkled in.

agreed... wild digression ...buuut: all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology. While doing so, there's no redundancies. There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity. It's getting closer to a one system handling everything. Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down, heh... It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel. First, make make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience. Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.

I think so. From what I’ve seen AI has done very well with broader steering and genesis window forecasting at medium and longer range. Less so with intensity but Melissa was a win last season.

I'm not talking about winning the relative to the mean trophy...it was my first season that wasn't 10" or more below average snowfall since 2017-2018. I'll take it and run.

same ol dry pattern persisting

Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk.

Tomorrow’s threat appears to be falling apart on the models. North and west of city seem to have best chance of precip.

Yeah it's only in the mid 50s here with a driving rain. Big change later though, should see dews near 70 in about 7-8hrs. 0.59" rain so far.

I wonder if that's a factor of the larger nature of tropical systems and them being more susceptible to the larger scale upper-level pattern(s). With severe, so much is dependent on much smaller scale factors that are below the "resolution" of a broad AI model that might just look at the overall pattern.

The sun will rise, the sun will set and Iowa will still get a derecho

Doesn’t feel like a summer day at all today, nice fall vibes. 50s and rain around lunchtime, sick

remember the drought?

There is a very weak wind shift right off the Texas coast per recon. Unclear if that’s enough for an upgrade but it might be.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity