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Hugging the UK CMC Icon combo is likely to lead to disappointment. The AI models have been headed south the last 6 runs including the Gfs and Euro. The cold air and high is too strong. Unless that disappears magically its no Bueno.

Good for him

All good. Hopefully trends keep coming.

Updated scoring

We're going to need a quote about the upcoming storm! Derail the panel agenda if need be

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still.

GFS usually comes around closer to gametime

GFS OP vs GEFS. The GEFS is similar to yesterday and has been consistent. The GFS Op was dry (relatively) like this at 12z yesterday, 18z too I think.

Eric Webb says there's no north trend coming, says any north trend is just wishcasting

can’t even imagine what the nam is going to show when it gets in range

Yea, I don't think anyone should sweat that. If we can get that N stream injection to gain some legs through tomorrow it would be very reassuring for a large scale heavy event....eventual meso struggles be damned.

See that’s why I like you , anyways exciting times ahead.

GEFS total QPF - Mean

15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro

Yeah GEFS was slightly north. More mixing for us

People, snow is on the way. Chill

“Forgettable” event for Ray as he gets 13” and Sey-Mour gets 18”?

Largely agree but individual ensemble members still say north is a risk.

She coming again this weekend and most likely coming harder. She’ll even come for Ray if he’s in a good mood.

This upcoming storm might be exactly what the south and central US needs. Winter never started in those parts, been very warm and dry. A storm like this, absent a huge shift to the north, would put Texas through the lower Mid Atlantic at average to above average snowfall. That's their ticker to a winter redemption, especially because lower and central Mid Atlantic is running very below average with snowfall. And it looks quite cold east of the Rockies for most of february as well.

Body punches exchanged !

The thing im most excited about in terms of potential is the duration. I expect a lot of changes between now and Sunday, but if we could have it snow for even half of that time, I'd be happy - don't even care how much we get if we have snow falling for that long

Wow, that 12Z GFS modeled historic snowstorm came out of nowhere! But of course that’s just great entertainment so far out.Well before that and thus much more significantly as of now, KCHS has since yesterday afternoon been warning about a significant ZR threat for this weekend even way down into much of the just inland and even possibly coastal SE SC/upper GA that could linger til as late as Mon AM. As I posted last night, the last few GEFS runs of individual members have been strongly advertising a ZR threat in the KCHS forecast region:KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT IMPACTING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE STRONG, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAVORED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO START, WITH A STRONGER WAVE DIVING INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. FURTHER ALOFT, WE CAN FIND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET POSSIBLY ON THE ORDER OF 160+ KNOTS. THE CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SOME OVERLAP WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST DETAILS ON TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND P-TYPES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS, A PERUSAL OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NOTABLE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WITH SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN AS A PRIMARY THREAT, WHICH ALSO JIVES WITH THE LATEST NBM PRECIP PROBABILITIES. THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI-P) SHOWS CHANCES OF MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH EVEN A 20- 40% CHANCE OF MODERATE IMPACTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-16.THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS, THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR TEMPS/WIND CHILLS APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

Anyone have the link to model verification? I want to see how bad the gfs is on a chart. Their used to be an ncep link but the one I have says it’s temporarily unavailable.