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MU: A dangerous complex, or Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), of severe T-storms is racing SE across central PA & will impact the LSV between 11 AM-2 PM. The worst storms will impact areas west of the Susquehanna River with frequent lightning, downpours and wind gusts up to 70 mph!

Pack at Machias (20' asl) reached 74" in March 2015, likely a top-10 depth in Maine records, and by far tops for saltwater shoreline sites.

It’s cloudy after some morning sun. One would think that MCS would get to me eventually

Have you ever been there? I was hiking on mainly level trails in the Maroon Bells valley at 11.5-11.7K. However, I will note that a good portion of the scenic loop (just beyond the lake) was quite rocky with a few areas of relative steepness. And I’m not at all an experienced hiker with trails like this. Thus I needed to walk very slowly in this portion and watch every single step I took to make sure I didn’t slip or lose my balance. Thank goodness I had a ski pole to use as a stabilizing hiking stick. Otherwise I could have easily fallen and been injured. A couple of times I played it extra safe by sitting down on my behind and sliding lol.

Incredibly impressive radar and satellite appearance. Given the wind observations you noted @NorthHillsWx, maybe a bit of Brown Ocean Effect slowing decay at least?

A nice slug of showers and storms over N WI and the S UP early this morning missing all but the far southern tip of MQT County. Otherwise, clearing skies on tap with a high in the upper 70's. Should be a really nice day with dews in the upper 50's to 60.

There may be a window to get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon. I wonder if there is actually potential for damaging wind gusts along the CT coast late tonight.

Definitely looks like a north of 66 deal

100% It's not a matter me agreeing. The bold, and in fact all this is so. Whether one agrees or not.

Ha ...right. You know, no one's asking; this is purely personal - I'm so f'n fed up with winter's being some how some way just not nearly as impactful or even interesting to watch unfold ... years stacking on top of years of that shit, too, I've given up on that ever being different. For one, CC leans in the background and at some point, we have to admit that winter's as we knew them will be gone forever. That's just incontrovertible logic - we cannot continue to warm and expect snow. At some dope slap obvious to objective reality point in future time, the former will stop the latter. I sense some of that is claiming winter's real-estate already. Probably why these winter's are becoming increasingly more challenged to finding a foothold over the longer term "quality means". Which we hide in time locality just because we happen to get two storms that were 20". 20" storms used to be rare; CC -drive H20 vapor density increasing in the ambient makes that more possible. But this is transient during this part of the CC curve... Those are destined to be rain events in similar atmospheric structures of the future. While in between them, like Brian intimates very correctly, we're floating above climo in the ambience. This is the insidious nature of CC. It's not going to "turn off" winters like that. It's going to erode at the edges and punch more and more holes in previous assumptions of interim storm behaviors here and there. Ultimately ... diminishing returns. It could happen faster? sure. It could slow down and regress one year or two or even three over a decade, but the destiny ain't changin' I feel we're already going down that road... and doing so at a bad time of my life. I'm middle aged now, a time when a lot of people quite naturally start losing interest in winter anyway. I think I have to admit, I'd rather continue with outdoor activities straight through. So, I'm feel both my ability, and will to defend winter, combined to putting my interest in deep trouble. I realize I may be one in maybe 3 or 4 members in this particular social media that share's in any similar motivation. I'm not here to diminish winter for anyone else. It's just a take I don't deny. Folks can still count on me to be objective about individual threats and/or general pattern assessments.

I have a friend who's hiked all the 14ers and many more than once, and for him the Bells are some of the most dangerous he calls it "hiking on a giant pile of dinner plates". But not till you get above pass level (12K).

I bet it'll be possible to take a pleasant hike in short sleeves and shorts along the hudson bay on christmas.

Finished with .51" of rain last evening/overnight.

Are these long range forecasts of long stretch of dry sunny weather after Friday believable?

They seem to be holding up so far I have no confidence in any met forecast anymore..seems to change every 12 hours and now seeing showers for Friday

This has more of an Allison feel as opposed to Harvey.

You’ve been mentioning the lingering vestiges of the winter/spring pattern for awhile now. It’s been neutering warmth and moisture pushes all year up here. Yeah, there’s climo for that up here in the summer given wavelengths and all of that warmed airmass to our west, but it feels like the “pinch off” has been more anomalous than normal…or at least compared to recent years. We’ve still been AN even with these higher climate norms, but there just seems to be a persistent low grade warmth rather than more changeable fluctuations moving through. Winter was similar. Steady low/moderate grade cold for days and weeks. Small negative daily anomalies added up to solid monthly ones. But the pattern feels stagnant which probably leads credence to it being “boring.

Went to bed last night wondering why the AC was running so much. Looked at outside temp at 11 and said it was 84. Question answered. Looks like the low this morning was 71.8 at 6:49 am. Going on 10 and back up to 80 already with 80 for humidity.

I may be wrong but cansips tends to have a warm bias, so this perked my interest for sure. As we’ve all said, all it takes is one storm outside of the mountains to make or break a season. I’ve got a hunch we have a rather warm winter but somehow still make or break above avg snowfall for many areas with just one well timed shot of cold air and an active storm track. Source regions will be key. My hunch is that we don’t build adequate snowpack over Canada but from that same token, does the El Niño pop a hell of a ridge on the west coast?

Some of the rates reported have rivaled Harvey (8”+ per hour) but thankfully the duration will not be near as long and obviously the size of the system is much more compact. Just another TS reminding us that wind speed isn’t always what should be the most important messaging about TS impacts. This one caught meteorologists off guard as pretty much everyone forecast a rapid decay of the circulation and no one mentioned 20”+ amounts that we are now seeing. Some 30” totals seem likely as 25-27” have already been reported with rain continuing, This is going to be a very memorable system for the areas impacted.

That cluster is hauling ass

Interesting to see that the NAM ended up being right about the front, but temps are already above the NAM high temp guidance.

Thanks. Yeah, the Vikes have Van Ginkle and Dallas Turner (looking good for a 3rd year leap) set as the starters, but the depth at that position was dicey.

The trajectory looks great especially for the north and eastern quarter/half of the area. But it does seem like there is a tendency to build convection on the western side of the complex. We'll have to see how the intensity trends as it gets closer but for now that line/bow looks fierce.

Short video from last night. It was a 4 minute video that I condensed down to 1 minute. Wicked.