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Islip has experienced 15 out of the last 22 months since the drought started in September 2024 with below average precipitation bolded below. Monthly Total Precipitation for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.58 3.66 4.19 2.15 2.68 0.66 M M M M M M 15.92 2025 0.60 3.72 4.76 1.98 4.67 1.88 5.64 0.53 1.58 5.06 2.72 3.77 36.91 2024 7.32 2.40 9.54 3.45 4.67 2.44 2.55 6.50 0.24 0.12 3.34 6.23 48.80

Should see a few strong storms tomorrow, particularly north of the Pike. Dries out quite a bit aloft which tapers down potential aerial coverage. Too bad because shear is pretty solid for late June

I wonder if that's why the heat of June and August last year were different. Both June 24 and August 12 hit 92 in our transpirationally-modified cabin in the woods, only one degree from our hottest. The June heat came with dews over 70 (I was miserable, having had knee replacement surgery the day before) while August 12 was the middle day of only our 2nd heat wave in 28 summers here and had dews mid-60s. Those peaks were also different from some normally hotter MA sites. On June 24 NYC/PHL/BWI were 98 to 101 and ACY reached 102. August 12 was only 90-91 at the big cities and a mere 86 on the boardwalk (actually the AP) at ACY.

Is it even possible to mix to 700mb around these parts?

If that's the case, fire danger will be extreme this fall until the wetter pattern sets in.

Good to see some 90s showing up for some of the area. Hoping to get in on some of that.

As mentioned the drought has largely remained the same since last week's update. With that said with a brutal heatwave coming, this is likely to worsen again and Falls Lake levels are going to drop some more outside of pop up storms. May the odds be ever in our favor. As mentione

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

One aspect that intrigues me about that final/ending statement, "While our findings provide many avenues for interesting and relevant new research, the authors stress that the best way to reduce both uncertainty in and exposure to climate impacts is a rapid transition of relevant societal sectors away from fossil fuels to stabilize global temperature rise", is that the climate response has actually lagged behind the anthropomorphic contributed forcing. Or in other words, the latter has outpaced the former. I keep reading statements - no fault to the author as it's not specific to their study - like this, where it "seems" or intimates a 1::1 causality in time. As though if the ideal reality could ever be achieved, where there were a sudden and abrupt cessation of fossil fuel use, there would thus begin an immediately response and stabilizing climate. That is unfortunately not the case. In any such idealized state of affairs, the Earth would like keep warming until it satisfies the total thermal regulation/balance. Another way to look at it is, there is room for the present atmospheric chemistry to store yet more thermal energy that it is. Another possibility ( intuitive speculation) is that the modulating aspect of the global oceanic quasi coupling to this mess we are in, might also continue to absorb the lion's share of the warming human activity should otherwise have realized. 90% of which has sunk into the oceans (btw) since the Industrial Revolution. So in simpler terms, it's possible that a sudden stoppage of fossil fuel combustion might register more slowing of the warming due to this factor.

Damn, got hit pretty good here last night. Nearly continuous thunder/lightning for a couple hours, .34" of rain and some hail. Looked like the Littleton area really got slammed. Getting some more light rain this morning, too.

We will have to see exactly where the ride/heat dome sets up. If it's too far east, stuff will miss us to the north I call likelihood. Too far west and stuff may have a tendency to miss south. Also important is how steep H5 is. Lots of variables.

My niece's graduation party that day. I think my sister would prefer the few showers, haha

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days

57F in Lancaster this morning. It is going to be a scorcher in a few days.

I’ve had a few sites giving me issues…but Wow handles the server stuff. Not sure what the cause is yet.

The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!

I'm not sure if this is objectively true but this does seem "intuitively" to be quite fast for an onset differential - coarse kind of resolution/presentation as it may be... What's the average modality timing with these things...etc

has anyone else been receiving occasional report backs with Gate way lag/failures. It's saying it is at this end, btw. American's problem if the report is to be believed.

Low of 58. Hoping for some beneficial rains the next three days but not super confident we get a whole lot. Heat builds for 4th of July week.

Only got 0.27" Monday-Tuesday and only 0.88" so far for the entire month of June. Pretty typical of the south shore this time of year. 0.66" at ISP is the second driest June on record but we still have a few days to go with some rain chances. Only 1988 and 2005 were drier through the first 24 days of June. ISP has not seen a June with above normal precipitation (at least 3.77") since 2013 when we had 8.03". Since 2019, ISP has not seen a June with more than 2.27" of rain. '20, '21, '23, '24, and '25 all finished with rain totals less than 2". 2026 will likely be added to that list.

haha... Brain... no, Brian

I'd actually say 50/50 shot that the westward sudden retrograde idea around the 4th to 7th of July is too aggressive. As I said to Brain, the purer derived numerical teleconnectors, from all sources, are graphically not really propagating the rising PNA curve closer in time. Repositioning them toward the right on the graphs means any retrograde is been pushed back. I think what is more telling about that isn't a pattern flip, it's more a pattern uncertainty. It's like the modeling tech et al loses the linear more detectable physical forcing in the nearer terms, then that immediately exposes the vestigial perennial non-linearity of the N/A continent favoring higher heights over the Rockies.

So Saturday looks like a few showers or a complete washout with 1 to 2" of rain

Is there a big snowstorm coming or something?

Yeah I hear ya. My gut says to lean warmer this time of year at this range…at least until there’s more consistency of Atlantic taint toward d5. 6z gfs had some pretty hot days in there…granted we’re getting past 180hr and it may be doing some of that overmixing again. 98/49 probably verifies as 93/65.