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Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up. The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it.

If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ?

Nope

Epic 24 hr fail yesterday

WB 12Z 12K NAM looks different at HR 63 compared to 6Z. Not sure if it means anything good yet.

doggie doo?

This is not close to Juno

NAM is decently south of 06z. The WAA thump though looks weak and disorganized. The best snows for us down here might be as the heights are collapsing after the WAA “thump” very late Friday evening and then during the day on Saturday when hangback moisture is prevalent in a very deep DGZ.

More in line with globals now

Does have a nice thump for CT, just not any support for that elsewhere

No but I do know that the NAM is running. At this point I trust it just as much as the GFS! Let's get hyped folks

Agreed

Only by the GFS apparently.

colder/south in this case probably doesn't even do much to help, if anything would make things worse. Probably means less moisture influx (which is already limited) and even weaker dynamics (which are already pretty terrible). Better dynamics are lift is well to our northwest, closer to the main low. The weak sfc low development is enough to keep it just cold enough at the sfc for us to get some freezing drizzle or sleep pellets

I agree with Tip all models have continued a NW trend. Pay close attention to the QPF south of us in NJ MD

Model sucks

Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know?

Up in Torrington, definitely. With temps locked below freezing the whole duration and snow, sleet, freezing rain i'd expect secondary roads to be messy that are untreated. It's not going to be the worst storm in the world but definitely a problem for the AM commute well inland in Litchfield Co. I'd probably expect some delays. But you know the deal, treated main roads and highways will be mostly fine. Snow/Sleet/Ice should be over by the AM commute and anything that falls as a mix will have changed back over to light snow/flurries by then. The bulk of it should be over after midnight.

Remember when it showed 15”? Another clunker model

My oldish bones said the same thing the last 2 days. They prefer 20 crisp n clear vs 35-37 damp dreary. guess i do still like the cold more than I thought.

In case it wasn’t posted, here’s the SV 6Z AI-Weathernext ens: averaging 3” for this area based on 10:1

Evelyn Wood taught me well

Garbage Forecast System

That thing is always in a world of its own like the rufus.

I know that I should be grateful that we at least had a big one on January 25th but after many dud winters it honestly doesn't feel like that was enough. This hobby has very little reward sometimes.