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  2. eyewall
    Same here. We have seen so many modeled hits fizzle out.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was 15, keeping a weather journal. Only year I ever did one. Picked one hell of a year for that huh! I was looking back and there was snow 4x in October, but it could have been flurries, or even just flakes
  4. Great Snow 1717
    Is the September torch happening today or tomorrow??
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  6. Cold Miser
    ...Is it too early for me to come out of hibernation? How much snow will I see this year?
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Starting to believe why we see it so warm in the West Pac is being caused by the Kuroshio Current. The Kuroshio is a feeding area for typhoons in which they can strengten SIG. as they track towards East Asia But the Kuroshio forms eddies and in which helps transport warm surface SSTS along it.Seen a couple papers i read in relationship to the ENSO when its a Central based NINO.The Kuroshio isnt as strong but also said more studies needed I believe its around the Kuroshio extension has the strongest currents in the world
  8. mitchnick
    I didn't think I was going crazy. BWI reported no snow in 10/02...not even a trace. For BWI, snow in November is a good (but not guaranteed since nothing in weather ever is) sign, but not October.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....they way I interpret that is some second half volatility. I don't see the season averaging -NAO. I think wave reflection is the path this year....like 1983. I don't think a reversal is in the cards. Guidance may try to flag one, and then back off.
  10. TauntonBlizzard2013
    8.27” final. Nice drink. Let’s see if we can get some sun out the rest of the week to green up that lawn.
  11. CoastalWx
    Ha that’s pretty cool. Haven’t seen sand drifts like that.
  12. ineedsnow
    We drift!
  13. ineedsnow
    didn't stand in it but I did see a lady pick some up.. there was a ton of it
  14. LibertyBell
    The summer of 1983 behaved like a la Nina though from June through September with the endless historic heat. I see the same thing for next summer. Same reason as 2015-16 with the Kara block added in? Did we have such a block in February 1983 too?
  15. nw baltimore wx
    Above normal is the not-so-new normal.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks slightly negative overall.. with seasonal models. I just don't know that I think we are in a -NAO time right now
  17. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both are elite polar analogs.
  19. LibertyBell
    Did you mean December 1992 Chris? That storm was far more historic than this one. Like 1983 it won't stop a historic hot summer for next year. Yes but 1983 had an exceptional endless hot summer from June through September so the el nino did not make the summer cooler. 1982-83 and 2015-16 had some similarities. If anything it would be less snow than 1997-98 as that late March event was a complete fluke and the airports got less snow. 2001-02 had even less snow. At the coast latitude doesn't really matter unless you're north of 42N you have the potential to be completely shut out of snow. Both 1982-83 and 2015-16 were far better for snow than 1997-98 was with much more late season blocking. In April 1983 JFK had their latest snowfall on record.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just thinking that this is likely our way out of the 2023-redux hell.....the EPO and WPO were both dreadful, and we seem to have seen a bit of a decadal shift in that respect after a several year stretch that was pretty bad. Your NAO period is about done....must have largely neutralized...
  21. CoastalWx
    It was highly anomalous for this time of year, and with weekends busy with activities, I don’t have an issue with it being a top story. I will say I was a little surprised at the lack of damage and power outages with winds near 50kts. Then again Mother Nature has done some good tree trimming around here since 2010 or so.
  22. CoastalWx
    I have no idea what he’s talking about. It was a top story, but the communication by local Mets looked on point. NWS called for minor CF with pockets of moderate potential and that’s what happened. Winds were correct and I think models did a good job with the NW-SE max QPF in SE MA to metro west.
  23. Today
  24. GaWx
    From 5AM EDT NHC discussion: Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 Corrected for Key Message number 1. Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas. Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out (WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.There is some uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95 kt range.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep....no doubt. I don't dispute any of that...the neutralization of the PDO is a guess on my part.
  27. bluewave
    You can see a the continuous 500mb mid-latitude ridge from Japan across to the CONUS drove another big PDO drop in September. This has been a repeating theme during the 2020s. PDO attempts to go neutral than makes another big decline. The record warm subsurface east of Japan to south of the Aleutians tells the story.
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