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We're going to get a G-IV high altitude Recon mission tomorrow evening!

Color me shocked this went that far north but the fact the key southern disturbance was coming in from basically Mars and another piece from NW Canada I guess I should be less shocked. That said this is still a bit early so there may be corrections back the other way the next 2 days

Need that finger of precip to be pointed a little further south!

These panels showing the onset of the snow just hitting us - with precip still in Texas and west, and no mixing until you pass Virginia - are just beautiful

Hopefully someone that knows what they are talking about will see your questions and answer them, but I think confluence has to do with how tightly the streamlines are spaced on a weather map. The more tightly space (higher confluence) the more likelihood of precipitation enhancement. So, when we heard in the main thread someone saying that confluence looked lower, that is a good thing for this specific storm because if it gets too juiced up, the primary low is more likely to go more north into the Ohio valley, and bring in more warm air aloft over us. Now someone can correct me. Except @bncho. He's on my sh&t list for calling me old.

It’s already over and he failed lol

certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison

not if the precip comes in like a wall like most models are depicting.

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

For the most part when people refer to us in this forum they are referring to immediate NYC Metro. This storm could be drastically different in Toms River vs Monroe but that's typically the case.

What I'm really interested in monitoring in modeling over the next couple days, outside of the typical synoptic features: 1. How does the heavy WAA banding translate northeastward towards SE PA? Does it weaken as the primary dies off and the coastal transfer occurs, or does it plow through the area with vigor? 2. Where do our DGZ layers (could be more than one) set up and do we have any deep omega through these layers? Even if the surface is frigid, poor snow growth could still occur if the omega and DGZ do not align. 3. Where the 700mb FGEN band sets up on models, because IRL it almost always ends up further north

One big takeaway I see on the 18z NAM is the delay of the precipitation onset. Just three runs ago at 7AM EST Saturday, precipitation was streaking into east TN, sw VA, and western NC. This made sense to me from an overrunning perspective, usually faster return flow and further north than modeled. Current run has precip barely making it into central Arkansas by 12z Saturday. What's a 700 mile difference between friends? lol

It looked it at hr84.

Yeah, weird for sure. The last several years, in fact, anytime a polar vortex lobe breaks off and heads south in North America, it seems like the axis is always between 75 and 95 W. That's a pretty narrow band. I wonder why. Incidentally, that is probably the largest winter storm watch I've ever seen in terms of sheer land area.

and a very wide range of weather conditions usually in that 75 mile radius because of the terrain and ocean

Local 3 in Chattanooga BAMS

Don’t you have a test to study for or something? Lol

Anyone getting flakes from this batch?

Months ago I booked a flight out of DCA for Saturday afternoon. Figured it would be less stressful to go out later in the day. Welp.

Do I hear Pingers

Maybe I can start the next storm's thread and name it that. I'd just need to recall this discussion when it happens in 2031...

Ah last I looked ravens was still there too but ok. Thanks

Too early to diagnose much but the ICON at 30 is isolating the Baja low a bit more than 12z and MIGHT be tightening up that NS energy that had been jutting west; next few frames should tell.

My layman's understanding is that we don't want the low to phase too early or too strongly or else it will punch through the high and cut. If it holds back to the west that is more likely to happen.

No matter what happens with snow accumulations from this storm, it should stick around a while with all the cold air behind it. Not the case with many big storms we've had.