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A workaround for calculating means with traces is to find the sum, and divide it by the number of years. (not =AVERAGE(A1:A30) but =SUM(A1:A30)/30 (for 30 years). Easy peasy. Disclaimer, my excel program is 2007 vintage, and they may have "improved" that procedure out of existence. But I can add columns where I cannot average them. Also if you wanted to know how many traces there were in 156 years or however many, the procedure there is =COUNTIF(A1:A156,"T") (just saying A because I am Canadian, your data may be in column USA). Free laffs with this stats lesson. I used "T" in my example and not "Tr" or "trace" but use whatever form your traces actually show up, I have NYC data with T and Toronto data with Tr ... and I found that on average about 20 to 25 per cent of days have a trace report.

I would definitely say less than 3. There’s almost no reason to bet against below average snow and warmer temperatures for these parts now. The warmer temperature is one won’t verify for December, but I am sure the below average snowfall will.

I would think since we are so close to the event... tonight's models should tell the tale!

I remember that for sure. Epic.

Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??

Short pump got y’all worked up in here

I think 4” here . It was very unforcast

UMD math grad here…some of those early courses were straight up weed out classes. I think I spent 20 hrs a week in cmsc106 lol. Kinda wish I kept all my textbooks to check out from time to time. Number theory was cool.

Yea. Those don’t happen anymore in the winter though. Only summeh.

I'm going to try and make it, but it's the start of our basketball season and have four games that day, hopefully I can skip out. always wanted to get to one, and meet some of the faces I've been interacting with since the Eastern days honestly. what's that like 20+ years?

Didn’t have to take that in undergrad, but I did scrape by taking 3 semesters of physics. Those were not ones you want to fall behind on.

Still going

I don't see anything on the models giving anyone in the tristate area anything more than a possible snow shower or flurry tomorrow.

Euro or bust.

if I recall the records, was the best Jan for that area inch wise in history... would have been even better if the ground hogs day storm verified as it was supposed to

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55 SON 2025 RONI: -0.85 November 2025 PDO: -1.67

A few more ticks north and much of the area will be in legit 1-2" range!

I don’t know why, but I struggled with Chem. Fortunately so did everyone else in my class of 150 at UMD so I was at least in the median.

Yup had 10” with that one in early January…that was the start of that epic run..unreal.

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

EPS are a slight step back compared to 12z both in terms of total precip and chances for 1”

That was me during what turned out to be yesterday’s rain storm.

we had two that season, one dropped about 10 in Waterbury at the time but over a foot in southbury/Oxford area, the other was not as impressive but still dropped a half foot in Waterbury for mby... still the most snow depth I've ever experienced in the 2010-11 season. Had 37" on the roof at the peak, that was the roof rake season.

ccb or maybe just ocean enhanced? the big ones always end up with those stat padding streamers..ala 2005 and 2015

Im afraid thats going to happen. You can tell on the models that any closeness you can buy to that limited cold air feed matters. Our DPs and temps just don’t quite get there. For the triad northward, just barely but that’s all that matters.