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1-3” possibility Sunday followed by a drop into the teens that night sounds great.

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I put more stock in the CMC or mid trance NAM for trends over the ICON

4 years ago OTD...

12z gfs… 65-70 degrees Christmas Eve 18z gfs… 6-12+ storm for the MA and NE on Christmas Eve Safe to say models have minimal clue how our pattern will unfold in 2 weeks

Ya, I find it hilarious he said the Icon. Like the icon is something to consider.

It would cut back on the bitching ineedweenies and I will get ours…

Lightning strikes in the approaching line! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Yeah, this warm pool facet of how things are evolving this year is pretty fascinating. Eric Webb had even made a mention of this idea near the beginning of the month too. I mean... we legitimately could be attempting to pull off something exactly like that... Already, over the last 7 days there's been warming and cooling of sst's in all of the right places (1st image). Plus with an outlook favoring some persistent wwb's right around the dateline (2nd image). In the near future and for the seemingly foreseeable future. With that warm pool currently leaning a little to the east already too. Sure sounds a lot like the proper recipe for continuing to see good things evolve out there in the wpac.

It's getting fun

Scooter approved

A very pretty 1.3" here as the temp sat right at 32F for most of the day. It's certainly been a wintry month so far

LOL is right, same as citing the NAM at this range... without caveats

The faux-sympathy is palpable.

I'd love to know how strongly correlated a snowfall prediction 360 hours out is to actual results. I know we like to joke that if it's on there at 360 that's bad because that means it won't happen, but it's probably just a wee bit better to be in the jackpot 360 hours out than for it to be showing no storm? Or is the correlation so weak as to be negligible? At what point is it better than negligible? 10 days? 8 days? I imagine those results exist somewhere? When I'm retired someday I'm going to have a lot of fun messing around with this sort of data.

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see.

If we get an event that covers the grass completely I'd be ecstatic. We haven't had the numerous days with snow in the air that places 50 miles away had. There was a brief snow shower or two on Veterans Day that I saw, that was it. Maybe a tiny amount of that stuck on the grass for 5 minutes.

i think you have me confused with someone else

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years. I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this. But we still have a ways to go.

That’s nice.

For skiers, this has been a fantastic start to the season. Belleayre is nearly fully open, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year, and VT is faring extremely well. In general, even if nothing pans out, I'd rather cold with at least the prospects of some snow threats than warmth. It's exciting and the emotional roller coaster is part of it, it's similar to how I root for terrible sports teams (something about hope being eternal).

Holy screw zone.

36F temps spiked upwards helping melt the ice

Interesting situation happening here the big warm up is being muted by the latest Euro Ensembles as the -WPO is fighting back. On the other hand the latest GEFS holds onto the big warm up and so does the GEPS.

I’ll take things that will never happen for 1,000 Alex.

it would be nice if we got something.. but they deserve it!