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There are some smart people on this forum, how worried do we need to be about ai? It seems like the smartest people with the most experience with this stuff are the most worried and that’s usually not good.

Yeah it's been pouring hard here all night

I wonder how often/long that needs to stop on the way down to cool the brakes!

There’s enough ensemble members showing a decent hit unlike previous days. Still could jog east though so wouldn’t lock anything yet.

Wind will be less inland like usual, but it’s a multi-facet deal with heavy rain too. Possible coastal flooding as tides slowly get higher astronomically.

Min 40.9° September is a good time to get that storm track out of our system.

Just awful. Say goodbye to the sun for a week if this is correct.

Coasts or iinland too?

Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct.

Tries to make an appearance later this week and next weekend on the models.

I said keep an eye on it in subsequent posts.

.51” overnight Looks like Harrisburg area is going to get hit hard.

Interesting. Never thought about the rate.

Yeah, near record 588 dm block north of the Great Lakes is very impressive for late September.

The ensembles see something similiar although farther offshore and more of a stall then a hook until finally getting pushed east. One thing that is consistent is development of closed system in the region, sticking with the ensembles for now for guidance this far out. Enjoy the rainy sunday, you have a license to sit on the couch all day.

Now gfs hooks left with the coastal storm.

Gfs on board

Euro , Euro AI and now the GFS has storm that hooks into the coast.

Especially if the surface low gets captured by the upper low and gets pulled in from the east by later in the week. Several models have been showing these cyclonic loop scenarios. Still early for details like that but the blocking to the north and closed low are very strong for this time of year. So there is at least some potential.

.38" in the bucket so far...

It got a mention in the recent CPC discussion. Like we have been discussing, could result in weaker low pressure centers with this El Niño. Would fit the recent pattern of overpowering ridges with smaller areas of low pressure. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html There are two factors that make the current situation unique. The first factor is the presence of a fairly strong, negatively phased Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with the August PDO index value of -1.11 . The "Big Three" historical El Niño's since 1950 include the warm events of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, all of which occurred when the PDO phase was positive, leading to constructive interference. This time, however, the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas. The second factor involves the large region of warmer-than-normal SSTs that is typically present in the Gulf of Alaska during strong El Niños. The current situation shows a significant westward shift in these warmer SSTs, which may allow for slightly cooler water to influence portions of the U.S. West coast. In addition, even with the possibility of one or more cold air outbreaks across the northwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states, it is unlikely that this will have much of an impact on the average temperature for a 90-day season.