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Man I’m out in egg harbor township and the modeling down here is starting to paint a picture of 18-24+. I feel like I’m in a great spot for this one. I’d mostly use the HRRR at this range and watch the trends with it for you guys out west. I don’t see the rgem being in the ball park for you guys

Steady light to moderate snow in Manhattan for the past hour or so. No accums or sticking yet

Not weather bell. But there you go

I am a couple miles south of you still liquid as of 11:12 am

I like 12-18 now for nyc

Okay that was legit funny.

This will have to be watched. I suspect things will level off and we'll wind up with around 1.50" QPF in much of the area. I still think 14"-20" is plausible for BDR at this time, unless the shift continues through the 18z cycle. Let's see where things are at 18z. If the storm develops explosively, one will see higher than 12:1 ratios even with the wind, especially where the banding sets up. The mesoscale models will provide insight into banding, frontogenic forcing, etc.

Slept late today and just getting caught up, but I'm not shocked to see that the models lowered amounts. We knew that while we couldn't discount them, it was possible that the few models that were showing the monster amounts were wrong. We've seen a lot of Euro and RGEM runs showing the much lower amounts. That's why I never went nuts and said 12 to 16 inches for our area. I'm wondering now though if it should be lowered to 10 to 14. Still going to be a great storm. I see HRRR and NAM3km give us close to 15 which would be great. Hopefully everyone knows to never get excited by the RIDICULOUSLY bad regular NAM. That model is a joke.

i must be just to your north because its still coagulating here (melted snowflakes/raindrops.) incoming!

Yes most models are showing about 6-10 inches less than projected. Still I nice snowfall but a lot of people thinking they were getting 20 inches will be disappointed if they only get 10.

How reliable is the RAP?, so many models now!! It's mostly unchanged from it's previous long run.

Some of these people just assume that everyone hates winter. A lot of the TV mets do that. It’s really irritating.

GFS would be a massive let down… how much should I weigh it at the 11th hour? GGEM also isn’t looking great. But the meso models are all systems go.

Under that band of rain setting up over Dulles. Thinking the higher reflectivity is melting snow aloft so hopefully can cool down to the surface

Clark, NJ. Switch over occurred about 5 minutes ago.

Global are useless at this point

Light to occasionally moderate snow...no accumulation.

Encouraging

Magnolia 37F Huge snowflakes Supposed to start around 2

Maybe he is MickeyTim .

North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts

Cut back a bit from 9z but still 12-18 through CT

GFS seemed faster and kept the best rates over the Cape and extreme SE areas.

Inside baseball: NYC will be closing schools. No remote day.

Leave it to the GFS to shit the bed at the last minute when it counts.