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+EAMT beginning to show up in the models towards the end of october with high SLP east of the Himalayas. Watch out for a jet extension and +PNA after.

Looks like Christmas day

Snow on the grassy surfaces at Clayton Lake.

All about blocking.

91 in Champaign

Detroit hit 87. Broke the daily record of 83. Technically its the warmest so late, beating 86 on Oct 15, 1897

Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.

Detroit saw the temperature soar to 87° and Indianapolis reached 88° this afternoon through 4 pm. That both cities' highest temperatures so late in the season. Some of this air will move through the East tomorrow. As a result, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day for some time to come. Highs will reach the middle to upper 70s ahead of a cold front. Newark will likely reach or exceed 80°. Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to around 70°. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -18.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Touched 86 at KTOL which will be a daily record for the site. Breezy and warm out there.

you are right - just found this ---Legal Background: In 2021, Bob Read (Snowbird Bob LLC) pleaded guilty and was sentenced to prison (63 months) for federal fraud charges related to illegally obtaining pandemic relief (PPP) loans and unemployment benefits. [1, 2]

81 here

There's a restaurant in the middle of Norfolk, CT... they have pictures of the landscape (hill sides) taken shortly after the 38 event; nary a tree to be seen!!!

Eglin AFB here. Thanks for the coverage. I've learned a lot here over the years. Among the most useful info is flight level winds vs surface winds and the science of surface wind reduction. We left Friday morning, returned Monday morning. My flower bed before the hurricane, which I expected to be shredded: And after: I also left a small plastic water bowl on the back patio. It had only moved a few inches. Weather is weird.

Like anything, when warmth dominates a pattern, it doesnt mean there will be no cold shots. And its impossible to pinpoint when they will be. I will be surprised if there isnt a spell of cold/snow in the Great Lakes in November.

For sure. Much more population near the ocean is one issue why it would be way worse now, than in 1938. But ya…it’s just a matter of time.

Thanks for the stats. Yeah, the last decade or so has really changed my views when it comes to Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Several of my own personal tropes have been thrown to the wayside. 1. A high end Cat 4 hurricane can only strike Florida, and likely most places anywhere in the United States before late September. You wont see high end Category 4 storms striking areas of the Bahamas or around the east coast of Florida after late September. Joaquin 2015, Matthew 2016, and Michael 2018 threw that away. 2. All major hurricanes tend to weaken at landfall on the north Gulf Coast. Michael 2018, Laura 2020, Ida 2021 and Helene 2024 threw that one away. 3. A Category 5 landfall on the North Gulf Coast is highly unlikely, and Camille 1969 was likely overestimated in strength. See: Hurricane Michael 919 mb. 4. A strengthening Category 5 hurricane into landfall on the North Gulf Coast in MID-OCTOBER is not possible. Again, see: Michael 2018. 5. September 10th is the peak of the season. Honestly, it should be October 1st at this point. 6. The Big Bend rarely gets hurricanes. B.S. I have seen more maps of the Big Bend the last ten years than I can count.

Only a matter of time, because wx will be wx. Our mistake as humans is thinking we’re immune to Mother Nature.

I have NG here but if we have a warm winter that will help many with oil heat and crazy costs

The scary part is….its only a matter of time before it happens again. Maybe we don’t live to see it happen again…but it most certainly will.

80 here dp 70.