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Not much rain here from that storm but with how the winds were blasting can't say many rain gauges got all of it recorded lol. Also: All of our climate sites, with the exception of Newark, have either tied or broken daily record highs for the day. Preliminary observed high temperatures so far... Central Park: 58°F (ties record of 58°F from 1899 and 1931) JFK: 57°F (breaks record of 56°F from 1967) LaGuardia: 58°F (breaks record of 57° from 1957) Islip: 59°F (breaks record 55°F from 2017) Bridgeport: 57°F (ties record of 57°F from 1967) Newark: 59°F (current record: 60°F from 1931)

This is why having a raging Pacific and strongly negative PNA kills winter- It floods the conus with Pacific Air and leads to the SE Death Ridge.

The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out.

We haven't had a big, slow moving cut off upper low in a long time so maybe were due? Otherwise, La Nina is flexing too much for my liking.

Models have "likely" made two big errors this year. One was the Baja low situation for early December. The next one(appears as of now) was the repetitive lows sliding out of British Columbia to off the Coast of California. The Rex block might produce one or two storms on the West Coast...but not the sequence which was causing the endless chinooks. Even though modeling is still working things out....the exiting of feedback helps. Some chinook makes sense...but it was way overdone it appears. Now, is the NAO feedback? IDK. I have definitely witnessed years when models over-did how strong it was and missed the duration (sometimes too little duration...sometimes too much). The same could be said for the Aleutians high - but it has actual precedence for being there and at that intensity. I think we end up w/ a full latitude trough w/ cold dropping into Montana, modifying just a bit, and then heading eastward. I think the difference this year(compared to recent Nina winters), the source is much colder and this cold finds its way all the way to the Atlantic coast. I do suspect models could be too quick with the move back to cold, but again, sometimes they aren't quick enough if the NAO is going to be a player. The storm track could be more favorable as we enter January. As your friend notes, mid-Jan makes a bit more sense or even just the second week of January.

even most of the piles on my street are gone....

Yawn

I'm largely ignoring AI guidance this season...they are in AAA in my view. Maybe ready for the big leagues next season...maybe consider as an ensemble at times.

Yea, this is probable a "one and done" forecast, like the last one.

I know but starting to doubt it

Or maybe the HRRR mocking us.

Even that pit OWD 51kts

Yeah. Absolutely nothing special about it other than its timing. It really does seem to be a razor's edge pattern. It could cut either way with warmth/cold and hence our snow chances. This board will have dramatically different viewpoints on January based on what happens the next 10/11 days.

Logan 55kts. This was ravaging

Holy cow, you're not kidding...heavy wind-driven rain here now. This is the official start of the "event."

That’s the storm laughing at us as it destroyed all our snow.

HRRR has been hinting at snow showers here around 8/9pm

Temp down to 46 1.20" of rain, Not much wind to speak of

Interesting look for sure

This will be a constant theme I think….

The rainfall definitely blew up big time on radar in that line as it reached the north fork.

It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow.

75mph Duxbury at Gurnet Point. 48kts MHT

It’s AI version is much better