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Im not as smart as like 98% of you and this is a genuine question…aren’t the 00 and 12 models usually more reliable than the 06 and 18s or am I imagining that?

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS.

Come on man...You can't make it that easy for him....

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week…..

I agree. Having a normal winter this year would feel like a blockbuster after the last several, which were lackluster seasons.

I'm a big fan of torrential drizzle and under achieving storms. Do you see any chance of this happening or do you think we're locked and loaded with incoming soaking rains? Side note, Fall foliage is great this year. Some real nice colors out there...

I'm absolutely impressed with the buildings in Jamaica. Other than the roofs being blown off and destroyed most of the buildings are completely intact which is really good to see. I have a feeling if their homes weren't made with solid concrete that they would not have survived this well.

This kills me

New12 NJ called for 0.5" generally throughout the state yesterday. I would place my money on that forecast...

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

This band has always frightened me. I would turn the channel whenever they came on Headbangers Ball.

If that happens Again then the model failures in winter have spread into the fall

Very much Agreed. Just give me average…and I’ll be more than happy. You’ll do fine there.

Busting aside…here’s to a good winter season. Hopefully everyone gets the weather they want…70° here while it’s snowing in Southington.

Good one Brian. Nah…I found out she wasn’t mine.

Deadbeat dad

Ugly pics/video out of jamiaca https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1983549319962579455/video/1

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there.

This is why it's never happening: Year-round daylight saving time was used during World War Two and enacted again in 1974 in a bid to reduce energy use because of an oil embargo, but was unpopular and was repealed later that year. Cotton said that the bill's proponents are pushing Congress to repeat a prior mistake that would create absurdly late winter sunrises and force children to go to school in darkness in much of the country.

Records: Highs: EWR: 78 (1971) NYC: 78 (1971) LGA: 77 (1946) JFK: 80 (1971) Lows: EWR: 30 (1965) NYC: 31 (1925) LGA: 33 (2011) JFK: 32 (1965) Historical: 1693: From the Royal Society of London: "There happened a most violent storm in Virginia which stopped the course of ancient channels and made some where there never were any." Known as the Accomack Storm, this event likely caused changes to the Delmarva shoreline 1917 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to zero, and at Soda Butte, WY, the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, a U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum) 1925: The high temperature of 46 degrees today remains the coolest high temperature on record for October in Baltimore. Lowest October High temperature for Baltimore 1942 - A tornado struck the town of Berryville in northwest Arkansas killing 20 persons and causing half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1948: An historic smog event occurred in the town of Donora, Pennsylvania. The smog killed 20 people and sickened 7,000 more. 1956 - A violent tornado, or series of tornadoes, moved along a path more than 100 miles in length from south of North Platte NE into Rock County NE. It was an unusually late occurence so far north and west in the U.S. for such a storm. (The Weather Channel) 1985: Hurricane Juan, a rather large category 1 storm, meandered on near the Louisiana coast until the 31st when it finally made landfall on the Alabama coast. The slow movement of the storm resulted in excessive rains in Louisiana with many places receiving over 10 inches. Galliano, LA checked in with a storm total of 17.73 inches. Inland flooding combined with an 8 foot storm surge resulted in damage well over $500 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Arizona produced wind gusts to 86 mph at the Glendale Airport near Phoenix, baseball size hail and 70 mph winds at Wickenburg, and up to an inch of rain in fifteen minutes in Yavapai County and northwest Maricopa County. Arizona Public Service alone reported 2.5 million dollars damage from the storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Wintry weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. South Bend, IN, equalled their record for October with a morning low of 23 degrees. International Falls MN reported a record low of 11 degrees in the morning, then dipped down to 8 degrees above zero late in the evening. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and north central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced weak tornadoes near Snyder and Davidson, and produced hail two inches in diameter at Altus. Large hail damaged 60 to 80 percent of the cotton crop in Tillman County OK. Nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s. For Marquette MI it marked their fifth straight day of record warmth. Arctic cold invaded the western U.S. Lows of 7 degrees at Alamosa CO and 9 degrees at Elko NV were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Bismarck, ND set their October snowfall record as 15.9 inches of snow fell through this date, bringing the total for the month to 23.5 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) A deep upper level trough behind a frontal boundary brought record low temperatures for the date including: Chinook, MT: -24°, Havre, MT: -21°, Conrad, MT: -16°, Chester, MT: -15°, Valentine, MT: -15°, Cut Bank, MT: -14°, Stanford, MT: -11°, Butte, MT: -9°, Great Falls, MT: -5°, Sheridan, WY: -4°, Glasgow, MT: -2°, Helena, MT: -2°, Miles City, MT: -2°, Billings, MT: 1°, Rapid City, SD: 1°, Scottsbluff, NE: 3°, Valentine, NE: 5°-Tied, Burns, OR: 6° and Denver, CO: 7° with a record low maximum of 21°.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A fast moving squall line producing wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph across parts of northern and central Illinois. The storms downed power lines and trees, which in turn damaged buildings that they fell on. The highest wind gusts were recorded in northeastern Illinois, with a reading of 80 mph at McHenry, 80 mph at Chicago Heights, 79 mph at Carpentersville, 68 mph on the west side of Chicago, 65 mph at Plano, 61 mph at O’Hare Airport, 60 mph at Yorkville and 60 mph at Orlan Park. Further west, a windstorm blasted parts of the Colorado Rockies. Trees and power lines were downed and glass from several windshields were blown out. Property damage ran into the millions of dollars. The highest reported gusts were: Broomfield, CO: 101 mph, Golden Gate Canyon, CO: 100 mph, Coal Creek Canyon, CO: 96 mph, Boulder, CO: 87 mph and Denver International Airport: 43 mph. Insured damage totaled $5.2 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Tropical Storm Beta reached hurricane status at 1 a.m. CDT Saturday morning as sustained winds reached 75 mph. With the hurricane status, Beta became the 13th hurricane to develop in the Atlantic Basin. This breaks the record of 12 hurricanes from the year 1969. Yet another record for the books this tropical season. Beta's Track - Weather Underground 2011 - New York City received one inch of snow, the earliest they had received that much snow since records began. It was also only the fourth times since the Civil War snow had fallen in New York City in October. The storm also left over three million people without power including 62% of the customers of Connecticut Light and Power.

Unless of course I start one for my area just to throw that off.

Gone Gretel gone