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EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

The mega torch will show up again once the 25th is in range, mark my words.

CTP had this great post. I certainly wouldn’t mind a 13-14 repeat here, except this time add on the 3 March events that just missed us to our south in MD.

If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night.

If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night.

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

Today’s ens MJO progs both later get into 6: inside circle 6 would be best for cold chance during ph 6 as just posted: also Jans with 20+ days anywhere inside circle have averaged colder than the others as I posted about before:

Key word is a bit… This warm up is brief. Winter returns by the 12th

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo.

I actually like the WAR location there. We had that frequently for a few years in the 2016-2018 timeframe which brought some storms back from the dead that were out to sea. The one worry is the epo ridge retrogrades west with time which can introduce more cutter potential.

Yeah this next 5-7 days is definitely gonna be above average temp wise for a large majority of the lower 48 outside of the west coast. It could be record highs in some areas from the looks of it. As John mentioned earlier it’s gonna be another huge weekend for the snow lovers in California!! As for us in the Tennessee Valley I do think we’re headed in the right direction based off what we’re seeing in long term guidance, we’ve just gotta get through a warm week to get there!

My car wasn’t topped last night. We’re due!! 24F

Low of 19. Solid winter days here before we warm up for a bit.

A little snow

Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6: Phase 6 during Nino Jan 77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W) 78 4: -6 (-6 W) 80 31: -13 (-13 W) 83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W) 92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W) 95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W) 98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W) 03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W) 05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M) 07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W) 10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M) 15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W) 19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S) 24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S) So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods: 10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak! 6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate 4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong 81 days BN 39 NN 16 AN 26 -66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside. So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter

Lol…good one Go Kart. For a half inch..I’ll pass on this one.

Possible sleet earlier this morning pinging on the windows. Drizzle and 39.

It’s not a bad look though for us , any colder down south on that look and we’d be cold and dry, we need some SE ridge to get some action.

Where is WinterWolf and what have you done with him?

Better west coast ridging across the board last night. That made a world of difference on the outlook for cold on the east coast. Let’s see if we can keep the positive trends going.

Please…I hope nothing falls here tonight. Washed the truck yesterday, and don’t need any more slop for a week now with the thaw coming. We reshuffle for after the 11th-12th.

As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild: The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?