All Activity

After four straight days of 100+ temperatures, my PWS high yesterday was “only” 96. We also got a couple hundredths of drizzle. Still need much more.

0.24" so far. Not expecting much more

Yeah, people have to remember that models can give us signals but the exact amounts and locations are going to vary. Especially when they are modeling convection where mesoscale boundaries and processes are at play. It’s better to think in ranges of possibilities so if you live in a flood prone area you can at least prepare. I can remember growing up when the models wouldn’t even give us any signal at times and some of the events came as a complete surprise.

And don't forget that the last 2 winters the Euro seasonal was too warm in the NE. And since it is impossible to have statistical data that supports the notion that the current Euro seasonal is inherently biased too cool for Niños in its current upgraded version (and I don't see that being possible since there have been upgrades since the 2023 season), I honestly don't see the relevance of prior year forecasts. All we can take away, imho, is that the Euro seasonal has been inaccurate with its winter temp forecasts in the NE 3 out of the last 3 years, twice being too warm and once being too cool.

About an inch here so far, maybe less. A couple heavy showers here otherwise just light/moderate.

My son over near Milford PA is at 6”. Hopefully that power gets back on soon!

.45 so far . That HP really nosing far into SNE. Shocking the most boring scenario wins again

Still no power. Rainfall total as of 7:00 a.m. a beneficial and manageable 1.36". Thankfully the excessive totals did not pan out over a large area. Isolated excessive amounts only. @IrishRob17seems to have jack potted. Threat of Flash Flooding much reduced for rest of today but still some locally heavier showers around. Temperatures down but humidity is sky high. Very soupy out there this morning.

And now missed to the east. I've been missed in every direction. Congrats Glen Burnie and Fredrick for today. I already know where they will hit lol

Decent thunder and lightning this morning up to 1.2" now.

Jones beach air show cancled, for what so far has amounted to nothing more then light showers on the south shore of Nassau. .

Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts. Forecast from August 2023 Verification

The models did a decent job showing it was going to dump somewhere and as you stated the exact the locations are always going to move around in these types of setup’s. I got under that band but other places in Orange County received much less. Everyone in the region getting 3-5+” was never likely and most of us knew that but not everyone reads the actual discussions, they just look at the pretty graphics on their phone app.

Yup, .93 the past 4 days

Sun's already trying to burn through the fog out here. Looking directly at Falmouth.

The old hat trick for a few may not be out of the question.

Up to 5.25” and still raining but the current rate is a much more manageable.26” per hour.

You should be getting some good stuff this morning, no?

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts. Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”. But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts. Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.

0.01” DCA is now -7.28” year to date

Looking like the max totals will def be towards the coast but probably nothing obscene. Probably some totals up around 4-5"...maybe someone gets 6"

0.93" last night

Picked up 0.45” late in the game.

.10" yesterday evening. Staunton was under a Warning for about 30 minutes. West-side received around 2.00".

Going to be in the have nots here