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Burst of deep convection in the last thirty minutes. Hopefully, that doesn't wrap around because it is crunch time.

^Thanks for posting the Molokaʻi radar. You can still make out the eyewall and does indeed look like Ni'ihau is going to take a rough hit regardless now. Also, the closer 88D site in Kauai that failed/went down earlier is very exposed on the southern coast. So it would have probably failed at some point regardless of issue. https://bsky.app/profile/kc5knd.bsky.social/post/3muy33554uk2v

Impressive winds on Kauai, with Lihue currently reporting 47 mph sustained gusting to 79.

Going to be extremely close for a eye pass, but an eyewall scrape will be rough.

Most recent pass by recon:

The radar tower in Numila (PHKI) has been down for three hours. So we're running a bit blind beyond satellite. It's going to be very close whether the core or part of the eyewall clips Puuwai on the island of Ni'ihau. As mentioned before, modeling had us breathing too easy only to see guidance shift back east late in the game. I consider this a short-range failure in modeling, being that nearly all operationals and TC modeling had the core missing to the west somewhat comfortably no less than 48 hours ago. Again, you always hate to be on the eastern side of a chaotic trough interaction. Usually, if there are errors in a southwesterly steering flow setup, it's back towards the east if there is a correction.

It was a perfect day today. Overcast with a high of 63. Down to 58 now. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk

For the first run I’ve ever seen, the CFSv2 ensemble AAM forecast has its key at the bottom of the graph because there’s no room on top on either side! It is approaching 3. Three of the four members of the 9/7/26 12Z run have it exceed 4 on Sept 15th (day 9). I’ve still never seen the AAM get to 4 by the way. Will it finally do so this time?

Overview of the heat wave this past week locally... ...ORD... September 1st: 95°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78°* September 3rd: 91°/77°* September 4th: 93°/76°* *Record tied/broken. ...MDW... August 31st: 91°/72° September 1st: 94°/77° September 2nd: 96°/78° September 3rd: 92°/79° September 4th: 93°/78°

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa

After a beautiful weekend at the lake im back home. Had a high today of 72 degrees and a current temp of 61.