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this would be perfect

With an AO+ likely to prevail through at least mid-March, there seems to be no mechanism that could drive the cold from Canada into the New York City area. Some fleeting cool shots are possible, but a sustained very cold regime appears unlikely. That means prospects for a 50.0" or above snow season at Central Park will decrease markedly. The percentage of cases with sufficient snowfall (6.6") to raise the seasonal total to 50.0" or above are below: On or after 3/15: 10.8% On or after 3/20: 6.3% On or after 3/25: 2.5% No meaningful snowfall is likely through at least March 15th.

2F Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Days and days of boredom about to begin. At least for SNE.

15 right now; I didn’t think we’d drop this low.

^^ Just a coating. Looks like 13° will be the low this morning, there are a few 11s and one 10 close. It's cold.

Had 6 degrees in Westfield this A.M.

26/13 and partly cloudy.

Down to 10F here so far

Nice forecast, George BM! "Unseasonably warm and humid conditions remain in place throughout the region early this afternoon with upper 70s to mid 80s surface temps and low to mid 60s dewpoints." These are the kinds of conditions we have been savoring for at least 2 weeks down in south central Texas. Gulf of Mexico is OPEN FOR WARM WEATHER BISNASS! 84/63 conditions are the name of the Game down here and we go straight up from here on out!

Mammoth is getting moderate to heavy snows!! They have 1-2 inches! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge They keep turning the building lights on and off.

Currently

That's the only time I hike during summer lol. Those are usually my days off. Last year I had a wild hiking experience when flash flooding thunderstorms caught me. It was the best hike of the season. It was a little scary when lightning struck a tree probably less then 500 feet from me. I like a drizzly, foggy day too. I don't stop hiking. It's my working season so that's my main focus. I get out when I can. I don't care for hiking among people. I don't mind passing fokes here and there but I enjoy the woods the most when I'm alone.

Ya'all want to see some serious snow pack? Check out this video I'm going to drop here, even though it's a spring thread. It's from Ste. St. Marie, Ontario. The kid (who owns the business) is a bit of a philanthropist as well. He's doing free work for non-customers due to the hard ice nature of the plow bankings.

We made it to 78.7 yesterday, well above forecast. Todays system has trended more and more north, don’t expect any rain now and temps look maybe 10 degrees warmer than just 24 hours ago, possibly getting to 50. Currently just a hair below 40

December was below normal in Carolinas even with the Christmas torch. The first half of January was a torch too, I’d imagine February was NN. That second half of January into first week of February was extremely impressive cold, impressive enough we finished January BN after an absolute torch the first two weeks

9° down south

Not the best picture but here is Falcon 9.

We started having problems extracting water at some of the springs last summer. For some reason, it's abated some, even though this has been one of our busiest winters. I guess it might be due to less residential demand during winter. I have to wonder, though, what this upcoming summer is going to be like if we continue to be dry.

Beat me to it. I was just going to post about the WWA myself.

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but I'll take a hard pass on that much freezing rain.

28.8/17. Guess this time we’re not chasing moisture with cold air

This is not the full forecast discussion. I only posted discussion on Tuesday mornings mixed precipitation/ ice event. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 120 FXUS61 KCTP 020800 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 300 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Posted winter weather advisory for freezing rain for almost all of the forecast/warning area for later tonight and Tuesday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 2) Periods of rain with temperatures very much above normal Wed onward. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A light wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations expected later tonight into Tuesday morning. Over the past 24 hours, the model solutions have come into better alignment w.r.t. timing. The QPF and temperatures have been very consistent from run to run. P-type will be a varied mix at first, but the gradual warming aloft will turn the precip to liquid. The consistency has raised our confidence in a light glaze of ice occurring late tonight and Tuesday morning. We wondered whether it is a little early to post the advisory at this range (24-30hrs before start of the hazardous wx). But, the forecast has been highly consistent at painting measurable amounts of ZR over the entire CWA. WPC guidance, FRAM progs from HREF, and NBM forecasts all add together to make a high confidence forecast for a thin glaze of ice accretion in most places. We kept the goalposts wide on timing, that is, erring a little early on start of the ZR, and a little later than when the ZR should be done in each area. This should help our partners to be ready should it move in a little faster or end a little later. We didn`t want to call for too tight of a window. In all likelihood, the valley locations probably have more like a 3-6hr time period when ice may accrete before the temps warm enough to make it plain rain. But, the hills/ridgetops can stay sub-freezing longer into many events. For example, the 00Z NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings both turn the precip type at UNV (1150ft MSL elevation) to plain rain at 17Z. At that time, though, the temp profile has the temps at 1000ft still sub- freezing. Our surrounding ridges are that high above the valley floor (1900-2400ft MSL). That may be due to a boundary layer of the cold air staying in place while the warmer air works down from above - and the valley sfc warms due to the sun. On the other hand, the fast (30-50KT) winds in the LLJet of the warm advection could mix/force the warm air down onto the ridgetops before or at the same time as the valleys gets warm. But, from personal observation, the scenario where the ridges stay colder-longer than the valley is just as common. The arrival time of the precip lends itself to keeping the temps colder-longer. As for the NW: The northwestern zones may also need an advisory eventually, but confidence is just a little lower there for a glaze to occur. The temps may warm just enough before precip starts to keep it all rain. Collaboration among the WFOs resulted in holding off on issuing for them (Warren and McKean) on this shift. NAM hints at the llvl moisture increasing before the higher clouds drop larger hydrometeors into it. Thus, there could be some freezing drizzle before the main push of mix arrives. This is another reason to start the advy a little earlier than most of the guidance brings the measurable precip in. The criteria for a winter weather advisory for freezing rain as the threat is: any. Even if it just the thinnest of glazes due to the hazard it presents to travel, even on foot.

Add BAMWX to the growing chorus of people skeptical of some big return to winter come mid-month. DT (Wxrisk), Contentweatherguy and Larry Cosgrove in his new blog yesterday morning are also doubting it Larry Cosgrove: https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/rkjQBLeS9xo