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Any indication of how models are doing based on what’s happening out west?

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

Damn, now we have to worry about the sun angle...at 15F, lol.

Probably drop for southern 1/3 to 8-12 and keep 12-18 inland.

This feels like March '17 all over. Quick snow thump while we watch the sleet line race across the Sound and know our joy will soon crumble.

24/4 here in downtown Cary

When will you guys raise totals?

Oof no chance at a foot down here with the NAM/RRFS . What a bummer

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It takes a little bit. I've got a dusting now on the Roane/Meigs line area. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

1/24 12z ICON Total QPF Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

46 and the sun just came out here. We are supposed to be right on the line of freezing precip, other than an interesting weather weekend, I dont think we get anything frozen at all. We are in the Winter weather watch though.

Still, a few days ago a total whiff was a possibility. Isnt 8-12 not good still? lets say bottom of end of that, 8". Still a good event considering congrats NC/VA with cirrus here. No way it doesnt snow several inches on the front end for many hours.

If this continues the 11” forecast at islip from NWS is going to lower.

Yes. I agree. The steady snow might not arrive in the Hudson Valley until 13z or 14z (northern Hudson Valley).

Just told my wife about the NAM and she’s saying I’m just like everyone else always saying it’s going to snow just for it to not snow…

If i had a private plane, I'd be flying into Bloomington. First, to have a beer with cignetti.

IDK, it just seems to me like the NAM is really strugging to nail down the mid-levels.

Definitely way colder than the NAM

Just caught up and surprisingly, didn't see the NWS snow/ice maps, so here they are. I had also summarized all of the NWS-Philly/NYC warnings elsewhere, so sharing them here. Nice to see the NWS finally bringing snowfall forecasts in line with the models and most other forecasters - I think a general 8-12" of snow and sleet for most S of 78 and more N of there and NE through NYC and the LHV/CT is pretty good. The NWS has me at 11.9" of snow/sleet, which I think is still a little high, so I'll go with 10.4" for Metuchen. NWS-Philly Counties For Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton, the warning is for 11-15" of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain (ZR) For counties in PA/NJ south of 78 (except coastal counties south of Ocean), i.e.,Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery (and Newcastle/Kent in DE), the warnings are for 7-13" of snow and sleet with up to 0.3" of freezing rain accretion, especially SW of Trenton as per the ice map below. For Atlantic/Cape May counties and southern DE, the warning is for 4-8" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR NWS-NYC Counties For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 10-14" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR

Radar out of TN looks great.

PF, am I seeing the recent snowpack depth report numbers correctly to suggest that the current snowpack (74”) at your High Road Plot at 3,040’ is coming in deeper than the snowpack (70”) at the Mt. Mansfield Stake at 3,700’? Those two spots aren’t all that far away from each other, they aren’t too disparate with respect to elevation, and they both represent similar leeward aspects of the mountain, but is that true and does the lower elevation depth outpace the higher elevation depth frequently? I’ve never routinely followed the snowpack depths at your snow study plots because I typically only see them when you bring them up in a forum post, but now that Matt Parrilla appears to have them on his Mt. Mansfield Stake page, I’m seeing them all the time (he also monitors some lower elevation CoCoRaHS sites around here in the Northern Greens like ours in Waterbury). I didn’t know your daily depths from the plots were even available – where does he get them from? Or (it’s hard to imagine) are his 3,040’ and 1,550’ numbers coming from somewhere else other than your High Road and Barnes Camp plots?

Dry air,its gonna take a bit,we went through it this more now we have SN

On and off flakes here. Cold heavy feel this morning.