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Still looks fairly close. Both the blend with and without 2007 are decent US temp profile matches for Sept 2025.

Guess so. I dont consider it chilly until at least in the 40s or 50s. This morning was chilly here and 45. 67 is pleasant

Hahaha, I haven't had signatures turned on in like 10 years, I totally forgot I had it

Relative to the 75 degree average high

I kind of have that feeling as well. The old rubber band. October is a notoriously dry month anyway. Think I'm going to make a push to sell all my wood by the end of the month. No sense in loading trucks in the rain.

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

Look at this place, at least 2 inches snow - Its the Real Mc Coy https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

I grew up in Italy. It’s a surprisingly big country from a climate perspective. Right now you could be making snow angels in Courmayeur or hanging on the beach in Tropea, so the climate really depends on where you’re going!

I can't compare it to back then, my son and daughter in law have only lived here since '22. They are in a really nice spot right off Main Street so Grapevine is very walkable...thankfully ;-). This is our fourth visit, we like it but the kids are moving back north early next year to be closer to all the family. 85/65 currently but it doesn't feel as bad as it sounds. I know, I sound insane to myself as I type that.

1953 and 1966 have a record that NYC may never match ever again, 4 days of 100+ I used to think 1966 was more impressive, but 1953 has so many records, two straight days of 100+ in two separate heatwaves, NYC's longest heatwave on record (late August into September to boot) and a second very long heatwave to boot back in July when they had their first 2 day stretch of 100+. What 1966 did that only happened two other times (in 1948 and more recently in 1993) was have three straight days of 100+. And those three straight days of 100+ happened at all of our major reporting sites-- including JFK!

wow we've had a dry year this year but it was much drier back then.

Significant dry conditions (widespread negative Palmer Z-Index anomalies). The greens/blues are dry; the yellows/oranges are wet:

Yes. Values are assigned based on their range. One can manually make adjustments.

Yeah, he wasn’t old enough to remember it, but I do. That was the only time we had a few days to play in the snow without it melting. But even that year was only something like 2-3 inches above normal. Even in our warmer, more snowless winters of the past, you could always count on at least a few sustained cold weeks with snow, except maybe on the island. I’m hoping this year might be decent but I won’t be shocked if it hardly snows either.

do you use some sort of spreadsheet program to generate the graphs Don?

Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week. wild how hot 1953 was everywhere, what happened in 1953 that allowed all that hot air from SD to get here but we're not getting a direct shot of it this late in the season this year?

Agreed on the mild. I just want some rain. Last october was dry and gorgeous IIRC. And good to know about that correlation!

Yes.

The shading is based on the historic figures. Next time, I will manually force the same y-axis.

in the 1980s January was extremely cold. Interestingly enough with a few notable exceptions like 1983, February was much warmer than January.

Don is that 35 at FOK the lowest so far this season? Do you have numbers so far for the lowest temperatures at MJX, MVY and MPO? I'm wondering if anyone has gotten closer to freezing than 35.

46 here. Was a glorious day. Dont like a lot of what Im reading about what winter 2025-26 might be. Looks warm and dry.

67 and cloudy in October is chilly now?

I’m fine with a mild October. Nice weather for one, and cold Octobers here historically have led to warmer winters. Don’t ask me about the science behind it, but I’ve noticed it in the monthly data from KIAD when doing some analysis on it.

It's nearly ideal sky conditions and the temperatures aren't too hot. Looks like we could hit 80 even here. Memorial Day weekend, I remember a few that were cold and rainy lol.