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Are we more sensitive to drought now than we were in the 1980s? I feel like the kind of rainfall we are experiencing right now is similar to what we had back then but it's being taken more seriously now?

But yesterday was cool too, under 80 is good, below 70 not so much. Today is at or above 70 so it's okay but not as pristine as yesterday was.

Great for walking and being outside. And I prefer the cooler temps.

I continue to fear what late seasons are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7! The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow: Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec: Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE 2024: 78/84 2020: 106/75 2016: 59/80 2005: 171/75 1969: 93/57 1963: 49/63 1961: 134/55 1950: 157/54 1932: 87/82 1894: 59/76 1893: 159/73 1887: 123/59 1878: 84/97 Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre-Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows: - 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878) - 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932) - 1 NN (1894) - 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963) So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active. Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do. What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

This summer was much drier in New England than 2010 was leading to the record low streamflows that some areas are experiencing.

Too cloudy, yesterday was much better.

Models are pretty wet up here midweek…maybe Friday too.

What a day today!

This is 24% of normal thru 9-21.

Justice Hill has -7 yards rushing for the season. Henry was completely shut down last week against the Browns. Bold prediction: Harbaugh will once again decide to make the dynamic Keaton Mitchell inactive on Monday night.

2000 was a cool summer

.16" last night makes .77" total rain for Sept.

wild I don't remember 2000 being so dry (or hot for that matter)

1999 and 2002 were two of my favorite summers, I don't mind yellow or brown grass, it feels nice and crunchy How does this summer compare for dryness to 2010 where you are Chris??

I'm glad to see we are going back to a drier pattern on the east coast, some of those high rainfall flooding years were truly unbearable

For our area specifically though, while the number of heatwaves might be getting higher, their average length is much shorter than it used to be. So we are getting 3-4 heatwaves of 3-4 days each in length in our hottest summers vs 2 heatwaves of 7+ days in length like we used to in some of our hottest summers (1944, 1949, 1953, 1955, 1966, 1980, 1983, 1988, 1993, 1999, 2002). The last of the type of summers that had multiple 7+ day heatwaves was 2002 here.

I saw there was some hail up there as well?

12z GFS was trying again and GEFS looking interesting

36 with some frost here this morning. We got in late last night at about 1am and it was already around 40. Very refreshing

3 weeks later where I am now.

The Atlantic cloud factory has shown slight weaknesses the last few minutes in Baker Park. Otherwise, it’s been cranking in ways only the mid-Atlantic can.

Gfs is coming in wetter for mid to late week but the heaviest is still to our west

I mean Florida has downpours that can stop traffic.

Decent win for the Terps yesterday. After beating up on the usual weaklings the first couple games, they have had 2 respectable wins to go 4-0. As usual, it will probably be a struggle to finish above 500 once they start playing legit teams in the conference.

Overcast and 68. A tad gloomy but dry and a Fall like feel. Nice day for working outside.