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Rare so we get perfect storm formations on our doorstep. It can happen and I think we will watch but the pessimist in me says we have to get it to the south

In the grand scheme of things this really looks like a "noise" run. Obviously the delicacy of the setup means big changes to snow totals but the things getting messed up compared to 12z are things that are probably on a scale much too fine to worry about right now. It is still very close.

Yea. Should be a good hit.

6”+ for most of us still here

Ya I see. It’s fine it’s just not the 12z look. Just don’t want it to keep trending towards that north move need to hold or dig more.

It's a SECS so far. Still going at 132

Is this how you met: "Read any good skew-T's lately"?

It will be acceptable

The offruns…they’re more for entertainment. The 00z runs and 12z runs are always more telling.

heh, actually ends up deeper by a couple dm ( 500 mb hgts) when it closes off there ...120 or so hrs.

we would definitely need the CAMs to figure that out for us.

Storm formed.

It gets better

Storm signal still there on GFS, all that matters at this point

Tbh there is so much interaction going on upstairs that I think the only thing we can look for is the setup staying relatively the same (and other models moving towards GFS) and then seeing which way it might actually go within 48 hours of the event as everything is in motion.

Not like it’s too much different few tweaks

The low is forming as the trough tilts, will be a step back but I think we still see some decent snow.

I've learned over time to never bet on NS junk to behave in a nina

126 trying to redeem Getting raked at 129

Having a perfect run 132 hours out is tough because there is no room for improvement. Now we have room for improvement again or Another huge step back lol

5.51” total here. Don’t remember forecasts being quite that high. Upslope enhancement never fails along the southern escarpment. Now if we could just get a synoptic snow setup with some southerly flow.

More interaction with the vortex over SE Quebec province. That thing needs to gtfoh.

Meh - think that extra dig isn’t insignificant for a lot of us but it’s the kind of thing we won’t figure out at this range anyway so not worth worrying about. mostly just want to see the EURO show anything substantial. Like even 2” would be nice

It was an asshair of a change upstream but it changed a lot downstream. Goes to show you how volatile this system is.

Yeah, it's a definite step back. Won't be anywhere near as good. EDIT..although some heavier is trying to get going, but the H5 map is shallower than 12z. Let's see what the precip maps show coming up