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This is my complete December list: December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970 Seasonal: Primary Sensible Weather Winter Analogs (*Denotes Strongest Analog): 2024-2025, 2021-2022, 2017-2018, *2000-2001, 1970-1971

In the midst of a miracle comeback weather-wise with veiled sunshine in Frederick as opposed to the drearies. In other news, November is probably my least favorite month lol. It’s the no man’s land of weather. When is it gonna snow?

Some leaves have dropped but definitely mid December before most of them come down .

I'll be happy with one accum event before the holidays lol. Overall nothing shows a "snowy" pattern but all lr guidance is advertising "cold enough to snow" temperatures for several weeks in Dec. We don't want mega cold anyways. Giant departures require giant high pressure and without looking back at data I'm pretty confident guessing that ice box December's are very dry here. From what I'm seeing we probably don't have much of a chance before Dec 10th but the next couple weeks after that will have enough cold over or around us to present a chance or 2. My yard requires a lot more work than yours this time of year so my imby lr forecast isn't very optimistic lol but I'll always root for the DMV

A collective boing can be heard to your south.

I liked Dec 1970, 2007 and 2008 as SWFE analog months.

It's funny how the objective D11 analogs right now all point to years with SWFEs in early December.....top analog is 11/29/91 (big SWFE on 12/3/91).....2007 shows up twice on the list....so do 1972, 1978 and 1983 (all 3 had early Dec SWFEs...'78 was more of a front ender cutter, but still)

I haven't started looking at discrete threats....still in cool-down mode after my seasonal deep-dive. Probably fire up the package next week.

Picked up .03"!! At least a precip-less month is off the table.

I just mean as things transition. Look at the gfs for example. Something like that on 12/3.

I like me some SWFE.

No, I don't expect you to get screwed badly in a SWFE...maybe a bit less, but not pantsed. That is more likely in a coastal later in the month.

Records: Highs: EWR: 73 (1931) NYC: 74 (1900) LGA: 69 (1991) JFK: 66 (2020) Lows: EWR: 18 (1987) NYC: 16 (187 9) LGA: 20 (1987) JFK: 19 (1987) Historical: 1798 - A four day storm was in progress in the northeastern U.S. The storm dropped a foot of snow on New York City and New Haven, and as much as three feet in Maine and New Hampshire. The snowstorm ushered in a long and severe winter, in some places the ground remained covered with snow until the following May. (David Ludlum)Northeastern States from November 19th to the 21st: The infamous Long Storm sweeps across the the northeastern US spreading deep snow from Maryland to Maine. The storm dumps a foot of snow on New York City and New Haven, and as much as three feet on Maine and New Hampshire. Storm opens the famous Long Winter of 1978-99 which continues to drop snow on the region as late as May. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1876: Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had 5.43 inches of rain the greatest 24 hour precipitation for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1900: 79° the peak of a 6-day heat wave from 18th -23rd at WBO, Baltimore also 79° (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1924: Boston, MA. ended their longest period with no precipitation at 44 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967 - Excessive rains in southern California caused the most severe flooding and the most damaging mmud slidesin 33 years. Downtown Los Angeles received eight inches of rain, and 14 inches fell in the mountains. (David Ludlum) 1977: Arctic high pressure with an upper level trough brought record cold from the northern Rockies to the Pacific Northwest. Record low temperatures for the date included: Hardin, MT: -30° , Boulder, MT: -25°, Butte, MT: -24°, Wisdom, MT: -21°, Billings, MT: -18° (high was only 5 above), Sheridan, WY: -17°, Lander, WY: -14°: Tied, Rapid City, SD: -7°, Yakima, WA: 6°, Salt Lake City, UT: 7°, Olympia, WA: 11° and Seattle, WA: 21°. In contrast, Brownsville, TX set a record high with 89°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1979: The Upper Plains was hit with heavy snow through the 22nd as the storm raced northeast into Canada. Snowfall totals were in the 6 to 13 inch range with generally lesser amounts across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. Sioux Falls, SD reported the highest storm total at 13 inches. Sioux Falls' 24-hour total through the 22nd of 11.8 inches is the heaviest 24-hour snow total in the month of November on record for the city. Moderate winds of 20 to 35 mph made travel difficult at times, but nowhere near as bad as a classic Dakota ground blizzard. Across the Rockies, some storm totals included: Wheatland, WY: 30 inches, Cheyenne, WY: 25.6 inches, Kimball, NE: 17 inches and 12.8 inches at Scottsbluff, NE. In contrast, on the west coast, Quillayute, WA set a record high with 60°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985 - Hurricane Kate made landfall during the evening hours near Mexico Beach, FL. Wind gusts to 100 mph were reported at Cape San Blas FL. It was the latest known hurricane to hit the U.S. so far north. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced 14 inches of snow at Snowshoe WV, and nearly eight inches at Syracuse NY. Eleven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 21 degrees at Pinson AL, 9 degrees at Syracuse NY, and 8 degrees at Binghamton NY. Gale force winds lash the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast, and the strong northwesterly winds produced wind chill readings as cold as 30 degrees below zero. Winds gusting to 60 mph at Trumansburg NY toppled a chimney onto a nearby truck. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - High winds accompanied rain and snow in the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME received eight inches of snow in six hours, and Fort Kent ME was blanketed with a total of fourteen inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - The storm which produced thunderstorms and high winds in the northeastern U.S. the previous day, produced snow and high winds in New England, with blizzard conditions reported in Maine. Winds gusted to 55 mph at Boston MA, and reached 58 mph at Augusta ME, and hurricane force winds were reported off the coast of Maine. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Vanceboro ME, with 17 inches at South Lincoln VT. There were thirty-five sstormrelated injuries in Maine. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: The November 21st – 23rd tornado outbreak was the 3rd largest outbreak in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks ever recorded. There was no break in tornado activity from 1:30 pm on the 21st when the tornadoes started in Texas until 7:30am on the 23rd, when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina. On this date, severe thunderstorms spawned 6 tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston metro area in Texas. At one time, there were three on the ground in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, tracked 20 miles through the eastern suburbs of Houston destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 more. In total, 23 tornadoes struck Mississippi and Alabama. An F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile track through 7 Mississippi counties. The deadliest tornado of 1992, an F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128 mile track through 7 counties in Mississippi, one of the bodies was blown a quarter mile into a tree. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: Brutal cold invaded Montana bringing record low temperatures for the date including: Havre, MT: -27°, Shelby, MT: -25°, Cut Bank, MT: -23°, and Stanford, MT: -18°. In contrast, Corpus Christi, TX set a record high with 91°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Forests across the east became tinderboxes, with up to 60,000 acres burned in the Appalachians. Moist air from the Pacific shifted farther north than usual, leaving the South and Southwest drier and warmer than normal. Crawfish farmers in Louisiana were feeling the effect as their ponds were drying up. Hunters also reported that waterfowl were bypassing dry central Louisiana in favor of coastal areas. In contrast, the first significant snow of the season struck the Colorado Rockies. Snowfall totals included: Bailey, CO: 16 inches, Evergreen, CO: 13 inches, North Turkey Creek, Genesee, Morrison and Sedalia, CO: 12 inches, Conifer and Evergreen, CO: 11 inches, Louisville, CO: 10 inches, Brighton, Broomfield and Denver, CO: 9 inches and Arvada, Castle Rock and Eldorado Springs, CO with 8 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2004: Southern California from November 21st to 22nd: Up to 3 feet of snow blankets Southern California's San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains east of Los Angeles. and even whiten nearby desert areas. (Ref. WxDoctor)

I’m fully prepared for your interior strap on for the beginning of the month, but I think if the progs are right, the wealth will be spread across a chunk of SNE during the month.

Folks also need to remember that the MJO isn't the sole pattern driver...it's an element that can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with the background forcing. Ie...it's one ingredient in the dish, not the main course.

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

His name is Snowcrazed

Gonna be several shots at a SWFE i think in the first 10 days of Dec....pattern has that look.

I thought I just mentioned the MJO in my reply...?

It might start catching on by next Wednesday.

ChatGPT has some interesting theories to explain the repetitive ULLs following the CA coast. Its response was lengthy so I've summarized it below. I can't support or refute the validity of any of these potential mechanisms. ChatGPT further suggested that we are in a quasi-stable continental pattern. And in support of that, to my eye, the forecasted mean jet at day 15 does look roughly similar to its pattern and position over the past few days... Persistent Coastal Trough / Blocked Jet Stream A semi-stationary trough off the West Coast creates a “corridor” that repeatedly guides ULLs southward. Blocking patterns upstream (central/west Pacific ridging) prevent the flow from progressing eastward, so the same pathway persists. Cutoff Lows + Weak Steering Flow ULLs becoming cut off from the main jet move slowly and tend to drift along the coastline where steering currents are weak but coherent. Once one cutoff forms, subsequent ones often follow similar tracks. Coastal Waveguide Effect Sharp land–ocean contrasts and California’s north–south coastline help steer shallow upper-level systems parallel to the coast. The long coastline supports a “channeling” effect for southward-moving lows. North Pacific SST / PDO Influence Negative PDO–like SST patterns (colder near CA, warmer farther west) promote troughing off the West Coast. This anchors the mean storm-track/upper-level pattern in a coastal position. Weak La Niña Teleconnection Current La Niña is weak, so typical ENSO storm-track signals (often more northerly) are not dominant. With ENSO influence muted, other mid-latitude patterns can take over and become unusually persistent. Seasonal Transition Effects Autumn jet-stream reorganization makes the atmosphere more prone to amplified and sticky patterns. Early-season troughs are more likely to become cut off and recur along similar paths.

I’m gonna call BS on the GFS for T-Day.

looking like some brief post turkey cad before we kick off december with an eastern ridge anything interesting still far off in no man's land

Paging Proctologist Dr Kevin….

Thank you