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Historic Florida flooding for what is normally a drier month there. Long range seasonal models did have the wet signal there. But the actual magnitude greatly exceeded the general long range forecasts.

Euro shows just about nada thru 360hrs so yay…

Looking like a warm November and December.

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen. Going to be a warm November and December. I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

58f overnight low. Very mild. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Record November CONUS warmth this month with this very amplified super El Niño pattern. Warmth is shifting into the Northeast this week with numerous +10 to +15 departures next 5 days. Then a pullback of the warmth to the Upper Midwest before surging back east again mid-November. Areas that haven’t had their first freeze yet are going to have a very late first freeze. Areas that did have their first freeze will experience a very late first hard freeze.

Justin Berk, Meteorologist · Follow · The NAM computer model is being retired! I’m not crying. You’re crying! Budget Cuts have led to these models being ‘retired’ and replaced by RRFS. Unfortunately, this new model version 1 that we have seen has many flaws and many of us in the weather community do not believe it’s ready for prime time. I’ve showed it a few times and had to acknowledge when it failed. We may be seeing v2 go into production. No model is perfect. It is “Guidance NOT Gospel”, for us to incorporate, but also identify the bias. I have used many models over the years. I remember the LFM, NGM, and especially the MRF when it saw the Superstorm of March 1993 five days (120 hours) ahead of time. There have been countless times I’ve labeled a model map with NAM 3Km (the 3 kilometer high resolution product suite). Including this last January in something I documented extensively here. The NAM 3 Km model accurately called the Sleet Storm timing and totals very well ninjas a hard time trusting 3”+ of sleet with the early change over from snow. This model has a bias to overdo convection/thunderstorms, but performed best in winter with Cold Air Damming and Wintery Mix Changeover. It will be missed and there will be time to sift through new support systems. That is the way. For now, Goodbye NAM.

November is starting very warm and, even with some late-month cooling, the Euro weeklies are currently predicting a step up in the monthly average to 1.91C. That would break the Nov 23 record by 0.16C. Would also be the warmest month ever on an anomaly basis. 2C monthly isn't out of reach for early 2027. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global

Two camps right now, decent rains or not much rain; hoping for the later. Meanwhile, my old hood in FL has received 13” of rain over the last day with parts of my old work area in Malabar and Palm Bay getting nearly 25” with more to come.

Could be some +RA Friday night over central and ern areas. Euro op is farthest west while Euro AI hugs the coast and over the Cape.

Whatever it was, I slept through it.

Woke up to 64

Screw it, let's go for goose egg seasonal totals at BDL, PVD, and BOS

Any location can always get a bounce back type year against a long term downward trend but it doesn’t represent a long term change in the warming climate and decline in snowfall. NYC and surrounding sites have experienced a long term snowfall decline in winter and March as the climate has been getting warmer. But it doesn’t rule out the possibility of a snowier bounce back March or two some day in the future. Surrounding stations like Newark have also been in the same boat. Newark has seen a 7° increase in March temperatures since the mid-1800s. Getting 6 Marches in a row near 45° has resulted in the 2020s becoming the lowest March snowfall decade around the NYC Metro area.

Looks like the long range pattern gets more amplified as we head deeper into November.