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  2. BarryStantonGBP
    Not according to Ernesto, Gonzalo and Humberto
  3. Wannabehippie
    It is so difficult to get a direct hit on Bermuda. Tiny dot in a big ocean. But everything there is so low lying, even a near miss will cause problems.
  4. BarryStantonGBP
    Aight never mind it’s Fernand and Gabrielle now with wave 2 coming first or what because 98L took an L I gotta Check back
  5. Wannabehippie
    I can't tell if Erin is trying to pop an eye, or if it is the dry air being entrained in.
  6. powderfreak
    Haha, just noticed the valid time is all.
  7. BarryStantonGBP
    Any extrapolations?
  8. Typhoon Tip
    you said "it wouldn't take much" It would take a lot for that - that should be a clue to the extreme unlikeliness without even touching theory.
  9. Torch Tiger
    not a "close call" or scrape on any operational model, nevermind a direct hit. Inside D7
  10. kdxken
    Yeah you guys have had one tough summer. I have a friend in Cape Breton and she says it's been awful.
  11. ROOSTA
    DO NOT LOOK. GFS OP has formable Fernand. Well within believable range. Maybe get lucky in the tracking of having a storm on the grid till the end of October. Likely not given the phase of the MJO.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Unless I'm seeing things, Erin appears like she's trying to pop an eye.
  13. kdxken
    Oh would you like 2:00 p.m.? Still not '90s. Or even close...
  14. Torch Tiger
    dropped to -5% chance
  15. NorthHillsWx
    At present it looks like the track for Erin has ticked west enough to cause the least amount of impacts to land. Bermuda, while not out of the woods, seems to avoid the core on most modeling now as it splits the island and obx
  16. GaWx
    It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.
  17. 87storms
    Similarly here. Snagged a pop up shower. Didn’t get cored, but enough to water the gardens.
  18. winterwarlock
    Same..6 day heatwave 91/70/94 We will get Sunday but tomorrow will be close
  19. BarryStantonGBP
    What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo
  20. MJO812
    Today is my baby's gender reveal to see if my wife will be having a boy or girl.
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Ask Scooter . He posted it yesterday
  22. GaWx
    Yeah, no change in winds, but the minimum SLP did drop 3 mb to 993 mb.
  23. Typhoon Tip
    The problem with that analysis/method is that it doesn't consider alternate pathways that may also be capable of forcing thermal distribution. It only assesses observations in support of his idea.
  24. powderfreak
    Isn’t that valid at 8am on Sunday?
  25. kdxken
    90 + the weekend after next? You sure about that chief?
  26. ineedsnow
    just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out.. 6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track
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