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As shocked as I was when the sun came up this morning

FWIW, the Euro control Weeklies looked just fine…even bullish on cold.

We haven't had any particularly good setups for snow this late fall and early winter and yet there have been several accumulating snow events, particularly for NW areas. It's a little frustrating to not have any bigger events to track, but I must admit December has felt pretty wintry compared to recent years. Maybe that continues early Tue... There are some indications of a pretty good burst of snow with cold antecedent conditions. That would continue the trend of sneaking accumulating snow out of a marginally favorable setup.

Rgem further north but its in the long range.

The good thing is the Weeklies have been pretty awful this winter so far. I don’t think ensembles will handle this pattern well quite yet. Reference my post above.

The RRFS actually has additional snow showers for the area (esp N) Tue night. Doubtful since there's not much support and the RRFS isn't reliable at the end of its run. But if the tight thermal boundary stays close to our area and we remain on the cold side, there will be chances for snow. Different models at different times have shown snow chances every day from Tue through Fri. It depends on the track of the very minor shortwaves in the longwave flow and how they interact with the thermal boundary. At some point next week I suspect we'll switch to warmth... but it's not certain yet.

Same with sunday river, in fact more trails open today then Thursday Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Maybe a Norlin surprise for some on the coast.

Dude. We HEARD YOU. Please seriously consider going for a walk or something. It doesnt need to be repeated numerous times a day.

More like a NINO the AR out west

RRFS is even further south than 12z. Precip is not quite as robust as 12z but it's basically all snow for our area except maybe ELI. Quick burst then the forcing quickly fizzles. Not much snow for SNE. Good sign to see the south shift but we don't want to lose the signal for heavier banding.

That will save on my wood pile!!!!!!

Nam was colder and further south

Maybe

Stop posting

To play devils advocate, LGA has the same low measurement. They both seem low, but support each other

Latest Euro weeklies really cut back on the below normal cold air for January. Hopefully just a blip...

Me too,i talked about the EAMT last night but if its a strong one you should in general show strong HP into Siberia/Mongolia,weak one its still warm in the SE,dont see that right now.Its flipped in a NIno compared to a Nina,weak EAMT is BN temps in the SE,looking at todays run of the EPS,but it still slightly better

Lol

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

Wound up with 8.5" from this.

I’ll be honest, maybe it’s just the pessimistic side of me, but I have 0 confidence in much snow at all this winter. After so many bad winters, I find it plausible that we can have almost a total shutout. I see a strengthening PV coming up after new years, and a -NAO block but no help on pacific side. Long range looks like hot garbage to me, at a time where we are prime for our most snow. Looks terrible